A 200/1 shot with a metal hip…

Wednesday 13th November 2019

In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:

• Andy Murray, the comeback king…
• Davis Cup next week…
• Sports Personality next month…

With the Davis Cup Finals starting next Monday, here’s a humungous price that could take a dramatic tumble in the next 10 days or so…

BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2019…

Back in 2015, around about this time of the year, I flagged up the chances of Andy Murray being voted the BBC Sports Personality of the Year (SPOTY). Andy was about to lead Great Britain into the final of the Davis Cup. A first victory at that event in 75 years would propel Murray into the headlines – and to the top of the SPOTY betting markets.

Murray won the match that clinched the Davis Cup that year. And the early 8/1 shot turned into a winning bet come Sports Personality awards night in December.

Fast-forward four years, and obviously a few things have changed. Murray is not the player he was when he was winning Wimbledon titles and reaching No.1. But – contrary to reports earlier this year – he’s not finished yet, either…

All hail the comeback king…

Murray has produced a remarkable comeback from injury and hip surgery. First winning the Doubles title at Queen’s Club this summer, sending the London crowd into raptures. Then stepping up his return to the main ATP Tour, culminating in last month’s Singles victory in Antwerp.

In January, I wrote that Murray would need a “near-miracle recovery” to get himself into Sports Personality contention. Well, here we are…

As with all the greats: you can never write Andy off.

Heading into the end of November 2019, Murray is now on my radar as a speculative runner for the Sports Personality award.

Here’s the case for Sir Andy:

• Great Britain play in the new-format Davis Cup Finals in Madrid next week (18th -24th Nov). GB are odds-on favourites to win their Group, and progress to the Quarter Finals. The bookies make GB a 20/1 – 14/1 shot to lift the trophy

• Murray has confirmed that he will play in Madrid. He will be the main man in the GB team. Singles teammate Dan Evans has just had his best ever year on tour, and Kyle Edmund has recently snapped a losing streak and looked to be getting some form back. Team GB have more than a fighting chance

• Andy is popular with SPOTY audiences & voters. With his Wimbledon wins the driving factor, Murray has actually won three of the last six SPOTY awards

• Historically, the BBC voters like tennis. In the all-time figures, Tennis (six) and Formula One (seven) are second only to Athletics (18) when it comes to producing Sports Personality winners

• Everyone loves a comeback. Murray’s injury story – from tears in a press conference, to awkward tribute videos at the Australian Open… then returning to court this summer… and winning trophies again – is an amazing one. Andy’s injury problems could easily have put an end to his career and that of many others. But the 32-year-old from Scotland is still going, and performing on the big stages

And the case builds…

• Off the court, there is also plenty of goodwill and attention on Murray. Aside from the Grand Slam title-winning career, the tears and the injury comeback. Just recently, Andy and his wife Kim announced the birth of their third child. Murray confirmed he will still play the Davis Cup, but will then change his pre-season prep to spend less time training in Miami than in other years, in order to spend time with his family

• Andy is also about to be the subject of a new Amazon Prime Video documentary series. Entitled ‘Andy Murray: Resurfacing’, this show will chart his comeback and is sure to portray the SW19 champ in a good light

• It also helps that this year’s SPOTY awards ceremony will be held in Aberdeen. This event will be very much in the public eye in Scotland

• The timing is good, too. SPOTY awards night is Sunday 15th December. If Andy & GB do manage to grab some glory at the Davis Cup Finals this month, then those images will be fresh in the mind of sports fans & voters. That Amazon series looks nicely-timed, too – airing from 29th November

As with all public votes (Strictly Come Dancing, I’m a Celebrity…), you can never rely on the favourite to get the votes. After his heroics in the World Cup final this summer, England cricket star Ben Stokes is the bookies’ odds-on favourite at just 1/5 (1.20). But much stranger things have happened in Specials markets like this than a favourite getting beat…

All things considered, right now Andy Murray as a 200/1, 150/1 or 100/1 shot for BBC Sports Personality of the Year looks like a bet with legs. If Andy produces some heroics in the Davis Cup Finals next week, that price is sure to drop fast.

Ladbrokes & Coral are 200/1.

Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook and Skybet are 150/1.

BetVictor and Betway are 100/1.

BBC Sports Personality – latest odds here

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch Extra