OTW Extra Email Archive - October 2017

A demonstration of value - 25/1 Pouille plays today...

Friday 27th October 2017

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • A demonstration of value...
  • Crucial quarter final for 25/1 Pouille today...
  • Frenchmen go head-to-head...
  • My conclusion...

A demonstration of value...

Long-time readers will know that there’s always a hit-or-miss feel to our Ones to Watch selections.

At the double-figure Each Way prices we tend to go for, that’s always going to be the case.

October has been a good example of this hit-or-miss experience...

So far three of our seven selections have been knocked out in the 1st Round of their tournament.

But the other four players have all made the quarter finals...

The latest of these is this week’s 25/1 Ones to Watch pick for the ATP Vienna event, Lucas Pouille.

When we flagged him up on Monday, Pouille was 25/1 (26.00) in the Outright Winner market.

Since then he’s won two matches, and is now 6/1 (7.00).

What’s more, the bookies are now betting at reduced Each Way terms of 1/3rd the odds for 1-2 places.

On Monday we were able to back Pouille at the standard Each Way terms of 1/2odds for 1-2 places.

The Vienna draw is tantalisingly set up today...

Crucial quarter final for 25/1 Pouille...

The current favourites in the top half of the draw are playing each other (Alexander Zverev v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga).

And it’s the same situation in the bottom half, with Lucas Pouille v Richard Gasquet.

Those four players represent the top four in the updated Outright Winner market this morning.

Meaning whoever wins out of Zverev v Tsonga and Pouille v Gasquet will be the favourites to go on and win their semi final match and reach the final.

ATP Vienna – current prices (before the quarter finals):

Latest odds

Frenchmen go head-to-head...

The bookies make Pouille 13/10 (2.30) underdog to beat fellow Frenchman, Richard Gasquet today. Gasquet is the favourite at 8/13 (1.62).

However, the head-to-head record is in our favour.

Pouille leads Gasquet by two wins to one, including a victory in their most recent meeting, on indoor hard court in Marseille earlier this year. This week’s Vienna event is also played on indoor hard courts.

Another key point is that Gasquet played a long three-set match against Dominic Thiem last night, eventually winning 4-6, 7-5, 6-1 in 2 hours and 24 minutes.

That was the last match on the schedule yesterday, with Gasquet on court past 11pm, local time.

Pouille won his match in straight sets in the afternoon in just over one-and-a-half hours.

If fatigue plays a part today, then it could be in our favour with Pouille the fresher of the two with yesterday’s situation in mind.

It’s also encouraging to know that Pouille has won each of his last six quarter final matches, including five out of five in ATP events this year.

The last of those quarter final wins was back in June, but the signs are that Pouille is recapturing a bit of form right now.

My conclusion...

As you might tell from the above, I’m quietly optimistic about Pouille’s chances today.

If Gasquet was the underdog for this match, I would be mentioning having a ‘saver bet.’ But the opportunity looks limited with Gasquet odds-on as he is.

If Pouille does make the semi finals, you might be better off having a ‘saver’ on his opponent at that stage, as Pouille would most likely be the favourite for that match.

Whatever happens, my point today is this: we have value on our side.

Value both in terms of the Outright Winner price (25/1 to 6/1) and the Each Way terms (1/2 odds reduced to 1/3rd). And also with the knowledge that if Pouille wins today, he’ll be the odds-on favourite for his semi final match.

Today’s match is scheduled for 3.30pm, UK time.

I’ll be back next week with more Ones to Watch for you.

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson