OTW Extra Email Archive - October 2017

A 25/1 French fancy...

Monday 16th October 2017

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • A rare week for the favourites...
  • Ones to Watch this week...
  • A French fancy at 25/1...

It was a rare winning week for the favourites last week...

Roger Federer beat old foe Rafael Nadal in the Shanghai final. The Shanghai title still proves illusive for Rafa.

And on the women’s tour, Barbora Strycova and Maria Sharapova were both trophy winners at single-figure Outright Winner prices.

That was Sharapova’s first title win since 2015. She came through the same side of the Tianjin draw as our 25/1 pick Alison Riske.

Our 20/1 Shanghai selection, Grigor Dimitrov, took a set off Nadal but lost that quarter final match 2-1. This week Dimitrov is just 10/3 (4.33) for the Stockholm title.

Here are last week’s tournament prices in full:

ATP Shanghai
Winner: R.Federer (11/4)
Runner-up: R.Nadal (5/2)  

WTA Linz
Winner: B.Strycova (8/1)
Runner-up: M.Rybarikova (12/1)  

WTA Hong Kong
Winner: A.Pavlyuchenkova (12/1)
Runner-up: D.Gavrilova (28/1)  

WTA Tianjin
Winner: M.Sharapova (4/1)
Runner-up: A.Sabalenka (40/1)  

Ones to Watch this week…

Winter is coming. This week we have five indoor hard court tournaments...

ATP Stockholm
ATP Antwerp
ATP Moscow 
WTA Luxembourg
WTA Moscow

Having studied the draws and prices, there’s one player I like the look of this morning... 

A 25/1 French fancy...

Benoit Paire is one to watch in Antwerp at 25/1.

I’ve used words like ‘fiery’ and ‘flamboyant’ when talking about the Frenchman before.

He can be erratic, veering between good form and poor form with seemingly little to indicate when that switch will occur.

A player like that is hard to trust at short prices, but worth looking out for at big odds...

Paire made an indoor hard court final in Metz last month – also as a 25/1 outsider – and two of his five career ATP final appearances have come indoors on hard courts.

He has a tough opening match against Joao Sousa (40/1), but is the favourite to edge it. Three of their four previous meetings have gone the distance to three sets, and Paire has won more often than not, with a 3-1 head-to-head record v Sousa.

Nick Kyrgios (4/1 second favourite) is a potential quarter final opponent, but he’s also hard to trust at short prices right now.

Kyrgios was last seen controversially retiring after losing the first set of his opening match in Shanghai, and before that having a meltdown and an argument with the umpire in the Beijing final.

Paire has a 2-0 career record v Kyrgios, with both matches played on hard courts.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the 11/2 (6.50) tournament third favourite and can’t meet Paire until the semi finals. Tsonga has had a poor second half of the season, losing four out of six matches since Wimbledon.

The tournament favourite is David Goffin at 7/2 (4.50). Goffin is a player I have a lot of respect for and I’m deliberately avoiding his top half of the draw. The Belgian can’t meet Paire until the final, so an Each Way bet on Paire at 25/1 makes good sense here.

One to Watch this week:

Outright Winner – Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

  • ATP Antwerp – Benoit Paire @ 25/1 with Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway

Latest ATP Antwerp odds here

Play starts in Antwerp at 1pm, UK time. Paire’s 1st Round match is scheduled for Tuesday.

I’ll be back next week with more Ones to Watch for you.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson