OTW Extra Email Archive - October 2017

This week - 20/1 and 25/1 picks in China...

Monday 9th October 2017

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Price watch...
  • Ones to Watch this week...
  • 20/1 and 25/1 picks in China...

Price watch...

The last week of September saw no fewer than seven out of eight finalists at double-figure pre-tournament prices.

There were plenty more ‘outside’ chances on show last week, with three of the six finalists trading at double-figures in the Outright Winner markets – including a 22/1 tournament winner and a 25/1 runner-up.

Here’s last week’s full list of tournament winners, runners-up and prices:

ATP Beijing
Winner: R.Nadal (15/8)
Runner-up: N.Kyrgios (8/1)  

ATP Tokyo
Winner: D.Goffin (10/1)
Runner-up: A.Mannarino (25/1

WTA Beijing
Winner: C.Garcia (22/1)
Runner-up: S.Halep (8/1)  

Unfortunately none of last week’s big winners were our 50/1 pick Daria Kasatkina or 28/1 Andrey Rublev.

It’s been slim pickings for us since our 40/1 US Open winner.

But that’s the way it goes when you’re following players at the kind of Ones to Watch, ‘underdog’ prices that we do.

One big winner every now and then is what it’s all about.

There is no crystal (tennis) ball. We continue to look for the value players and outsiders at attractive Each Way prices...

Ones to Watch this week…

There are four tournaments on the schedule this week; one indoor Women’s event in Linz, Austria – and the other three all part of the autumnal ‘Asian Swing’ of the ATP and WTA Tours, in Shanghai, Tianjin and Hong Kong.

20/1 and 25/1 picks in China...

Two players & prices standout for me this week...

In the Men’s, Grigor Dimitrov is a big enough price at 20/1 to overturn poor previous form at the ATP Shanghai event.

He’s in the same half of the draw as tournament favourite Rafael Nadal, but Rafa has never won this tournament either and might struggle to follow up a title win last week.

And with the returning Roger Federer (11/4 – 3.75) lurking in the other side of the draw, a Win Only bet on Rafa at 15/8 (2.88) doesn’t exactly get the pulse racing at the price.

Dimitrov has won three titles this year all on hard courts, and made the semi finals in Beijing last week – taking Nadal to three sets in a 6-3, 4-6, 6-1 defeat.

Add in the fact that Nadal could face Fabio Fognini or Lucas Pouille before any potential rematch with Dimitrov – both of whom have beaten Nadal on hard courts before – and the potential for things opening up for the Bulgarian is there to see.

Dimitrov won his first Masters level title this season (ATP Cincinnati, hard court), and this week is another opportunity to go after a prestigious Masters trophy.

In the WTA Tianjin event, Maria Sharapova (7/2 – 4.50) needs to be opposed in the top half of the draw...

Sharapova has yet to win more than three consecutive matches since returning from suspension earlier this year, and hasn’t put a trophy in the cabinet since 2015.

Petra Kvitova is always dangerous and lies in the other half of the draw, as the 7/2 (4.50) joint-favourite.

Last year’s Tianjin finalists are both in Sharapova’s half, Shuai Peng (10/1) and Alison Riske (25/1). Peng was last seen retiring from Beijing with a knee injury the other week, and at the bigger price I’m more inclined to follow the fast-hitting American at 25/1...

At first glance, Riske has little-to-no form to write about recently – four 1st Round defeats in a row – but two those losses were against very good players in the shape of Simona Halep and Daria Kasatkina. And on both occasions, she took a set off her more illustrious opponents...

For 2017 as a whole, Riske has had some tough draws – also coming up short in 1st or 2nd Round meetings with the likes of Coco Vandeweghe, Venus Williams, Karolina Pliskova and Garbine Muguruza.

This week the level of opposition in her side of the Tianjin draw is nothing like that – bar Sharapova, who Riske can’t meet until the semi finals. And as already hinted at above, the Russian might not get that far.

One to Watch this week:

Outright Winner – Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

  • ATP Shanghai Masters – Grigor Dimitrov @ 20/1 (21.00) Each Way with SunBets, Bet365, William Hill, Stan James, BetVictor

Latest ATP Shanghai odds here

  • WTA Tianjin – Alison Riske @ 25/1 (26.00) Each Way with Bet365, Ladbrokes, Betfred, Paddy Power, Coral, Betway, Betfair Sportsbook

Latest WTA Tianjin odds here

Play resumes in China from 4am Tuesday, UK time.

I’ll be back next week with more Ones to Watch.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson