OTW Extra Email Archive - September 2017

Follow a 16/1 Russian in St Petersburg...

Monday 18th September 2017

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Ones to Watch this week...
  • French connection in Metz...
  • Follow a 16/1 Russian in St Petersburg...

Fresh from our 40/1 winner on Sloane Stephens at the US Open, we return to the weekly tours this week in search of more value prices...

Ones to Watch this week...

There are five tournaments taking place this week. The three Women’s (WTA) events in Asia have matches in play as I write and therefore, there are no Outright Winner prices available with the bookies this morning. I’ll let you know if there are any players that catch my eye there later this week.

The Men have ATP events in France and Russia...

French connection in Metz...

It’s the start of the indoor hard court season for the men – the ATP Metz ‘Moselle Open’ tournament was the scene of a 10/1 winner for us this time last year, when Lucas Pouille lifted the trophy.

We latched onto a ‘home winners’ trend there, with Pouille being the 7th Frenchman to win the Metz title in the last 8 years.

This week Pouille goes off as the 6/1 joint 2nd-favourite. Other Frenchmen in the draw include Gilles Simon (14/1), Richard Gasquet (9/1), Nicolas Mahut (33/1) and Benoit Paire (25/1).

The French angle is one to consider again, but it’s a ‘home’ player in the St Petersburg tournament that catches my eye today...

Follow a 16/1 Russian in St Petersburg...

Daniil Medvedev looks one to watch in Russia this week.

The 21-year-old Russian is a player on the up – he entered the Top 100 this year and has been knocking on the door of the Top 50.

Currently ranked No.62 in the world, much is expected of this youngster and an indoor hard court event like this could suit him well...

Medvedev stands 6’6” tall and with a big serve and big shots, hard courts are unsurprisingly his best surface.

Indoors, where conditions can play fast and the balls can fly true, his fledging Senior ATP Tour record is promising:

ATP Marseille – quarter final
ATP Montpellier – quarter final

ATP Challenger – Bratislava – semi final
ATP Challenger – Budapest – semi final
ATP Moscow – quarter final
ATP Challenger – Mons – semi final
ATP Challenger – Orleans – quarter final

Medvedev has pretty much left behind the lower-tier Challenger tour this season, and quarter final appearances at main level ATP events in Moscow, Montpellier and Marseille are encouraging signs.

His one career ATP final to date came on outdoor hard courts in Chennai earlier this year. That week he was a 20/1 tournament outsider; this week he’s a similar double-figure price of 16/1.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the top man in Medvedev’s half of the draw, and 4/1 joint-favourite for the trophy. Tsonga has won his last two indoor hard courts events (Marseille and Rotterdam, both this year) but has been out of form over the summer, failing to win more than 2 consecutive matches since the week before the French Open in May.

It’s also worth noting that this is Tsonga’s first ever appearance in St Petersburg. The venue and playing conditions might take a bit of getting used to for him.

Medvedev won 3 matches here last year before losing to the fast-rising German, Alexander Zverev – who went on to win the tournament, and is now No.4 in the world.

All things considered, the Russian youngster looks worth following at a decent Each Way price this week...

One to Watch this week:

Outright Winner – Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

  • ATP St Petersburg – Daniil Medvedev @ 16/1 Each Way with BetVictor, Sportingbet, Betfred, 14/1 in general

Latest ATP St Petersburg odds here

Plays starts today at 1.00pm UK time.

I’ll be back soon – next week if not before – with more Ones to Watch for you.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson