OTW Extra Email Archive - September 2024
Notes from the tour - it's happening again...
Thursday 5th September 2024
It’s happening again…
The big odds in tennis Grand Slams just keep on coming. And these days, with the end of the Big Four era, the men are getting in on the upset action, too…
With the US Open semi finals and finals still to come this week, it’s already been confirmed: for the first time since 2002, a year will pass without at least one of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, or Novak Djokovic sweeping up a Major trophy.
Heading into Friday’s semi finals, here are the top day-one tournament Outright Winner prices for the men that have made it to the last four here in New York:
Jannik Sinner 3/1
Jack Draper 250/1
Taylor Fritz 66/1
Frances Tiafoe 150/1
Some giant prices there. And the big-odds US Open shocks aren’t confined to the outright markets…
For example, in the matchday betting, world no.3 and reigning French Open and Wimbledon champion, Carlos Alcaraz, was knocked out in the 2nd round last week – by an opponent priced as big as 28/1 to beat him (Botic Van De Zandschulp).
As for the women’s. Well, the US Open 2024 has only added to the ‘wide open’ vibes that we’ve been riding here at Ones to Watch for several seasons now…
Here are the starting prices for the four women’s semi-finalists here at Flushing Meadows this fortnight:
Jessica Pegula 16/1
Karolina Muchova 66/1
Emma Navarro 40/1
Aryna Sabalenka 2/1
Following on from these recent standout surprises and giant-price outcomes at the women’s Majors:
Wimbledon 2024 champion: Barbora Krejcikova 225/1
Wimbledon 2024 runner-up: Jasmine Paolini 66/1
French Open 2024 runner-up: Jasmine Paolini 150/1
Australian Open 2024 runner-up: Qinwen Zheng 33/1
And before that…
Wimbledon 2023 champion: Marketa Vondrousova 150/1
French Open 2023 runner-up: Karolina Muchova 100/1
Wimbledon 2022 champion: Elena Rybakina 100/1
Australian Open 2022 runner-up: Danielle Collins 100/1
I could go on. But I think you get the point…
Tennis Grand Slams are producing big-odds results – in both the men’s and women’s events.
And with bookies paying 1/2 odds Each Way for reaching the final, even a ‘losing’ pick is worth a huge profit, with runner-up place money well worth taking…
A big one booked-in for Sunday’s final…
In Ones to Watch in recent seasons, for example, from those players listed above – we’ve made money from the likes of Collins, Vondrousova, Qinwen Zheng, and Paolini.
And right now, at the US Open 2024, Ones to Watch members are sitting pretty with a guaranteed big-price, Each Way pick set to line-up in the men’s final on Sunday:
The season is far from over…
The US Open is the last Major of the year – but it’s absolutely by no means the end of the tennis season (no matter how the BBC etc might make it seem)…
Next week, we have two WTA tournaments coming up. A 250-grade event in Tunisia, and a bigger, 500-grader in Mexico – both starting on Monday…
Followed by seven more tournaments this month, and then the tours roll on into October and beyond, too…
Here at Ones to Watch, we pretty much exclusively go after the BIG prices in the weekly Outright Winner markets: backing appealing outsiders, at attractive Each Way prices…
As the youngsters might say – that’s how we roll...
And with 150/1 Paolini already chalked up this season, and New York still to be settled this weekend, with a 66/1 or better men’s finalist booked in. I’d say we roll pretty well…
We certainly don’t win at every tournament, every week, or every month. But when those big ones come along and click for us, it’s all smiles, whatever the weather…
I’ll be back next week with more.
P.S
If you’re not a paid-up member of my full Ones to Watch service yet, then get onboard and put me to the test here.
My long-term, long-range, more-losing-bets-than-winners approach isn’t for everyone, perhaps…
But then again – who doesn’t want a 100/1 payout?
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone