OTW Extra Email Archive - September 2024
Notes from the tour - the 500/1 fairytale?
Monday 30th September 2024
Anything can happen - and it usually does!
I have fond memories of Murray Walker yelping that out at the start of F1 races. The anything-can-happen nature of sport is what makes it so appealing. And the same goes for betting…
In the last fortnight alone on the tennis tours, we’ve been reminded of the glorious unpredictability of sport. And with shocks and surprises, comes big prices in the betting markets…
Marin Cilic became the lowest-ranked player to ever win an ATP tournament. The Croatian veteran, who has just turned 36 years of age, won the ATP 250 event in Hangzhou, China… having gone off a 33/1 outsider in the Outright Winner market… and ranked at no.777 in the world…
There could be an even bigger story unfolding in Beijing this week…
At the WTA 1000-grade China Open, home player Shuai Zhang is already on a fairytale run…
The 35-year-old entered the tournament via a wildcard. Ranked no.595 in the world… and on a brutal, demoralising, 24-match losing streak…
Shuai Zhang has turned the formbook on its head. Winning three matches at WTA Beijing so far - have started all three as the odds-against underdog in the Match Winner betting. Including a 10/1 win over world no.8 and recent US Open semi-finalist, Emma Navarro.
The Chinese player started the tournament last week, priced as a 500/1 rank outsider. She plays in the round of 16 tomorrow, looking to reach what would be a third quarter final in five appearances in Beijing. Maybe the signs were there all along…?!
Here’s what Shuai Zhang told reporters, after winning in the last round:
"This court, because I grew up from Tianjin, Beijing, I played this hard court more than 20 years every day. I think my tennis is so natural on this court, I can play my best tennis on this court."
The fairytale run might not be over yet.
An eight-year trend continues…
I’ve been monitoring the Outright Winner prices for tennis tournaments on the ATP & WTA Tours, as well as the four Grand Slams, for eight years and counting…
One of the strongest and most eye-catching trends, that you will have heard me mention many times (and with good reason) - is that on average, 10% of tournaments produce a 100/1+ finalist…
That’s a huge stat. And it underpins a massive part of my Ones to Watch philosophy: we back appealing outsiders, at attractive Each Way prices…
And remember, with standard Each Way terms of 1/2 odds for 1-2 places in tennis betting, a 100/1 runner-up in a final is worth a 50/1 payout.
Here are some more current-year numbers to whet your appetite:
78% of tournaments this season have produced a 20/1+ finalist
47% of tournaments have seen a 33/1+ shot get to the final
And 30% have delivered a player to the final at 50/1 or bigger
If you like the sound of going after big prices like those. Playing the tennis markets in the most exciting, high-upside way possible…
Then stick with me. It’s what we’re all about in Ones to Watch.
Coming up this week, a big, ATP 1000 event - with the men in action from Wednesday in the Rolex Shanghai Masters.
Followed by another prestigious, 1000-grade tournament next week. With the women in Wuhan…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone