Notes from the Tour: 100/1 shots - and September schedule...

Thursday 4th September 2025

My database of tennis tournaments contains 10 years of results…

I record the starting prices for Outright Winner and Each Way runners-up, on the weekly ATP & WTA Tours, and at the four annual Grand Slams, throughout each season…

The numbers tell me plenty. For example, here’s one of my favourite findings:

• On average, around one in 10 tournaments end up with a 100/1 player in the final (10% of tournaments)

The current 2025 figures are running slightly above that rate…

• With 84 events completed at the time of writing, a total of 12 players have reached finals this season, having gone off at odds of 100/1 or greater (12% of tournaments)

Overall, the average price of an Outright Winner on the main tours this season is around 19/1, which is almost bang-on the same as in 2024.

And with bookies generally paying Each Way terms of 1/2 odds for reaching the final, runner-up prices are well worth knowing, too. That figure is just over 30/1 so far this year.

• You can follow my weekly price updates on the free-to-access Calendar page on the Ones to Watch website, here

And as you’ll see on the Calendar, while this week’s US Open is the final Grand Slam of the year - the 2025 tennis season is very much still alive and kicking…

Here’s the September schedule. And the tours run all through October and well into November…

Last year, the week directly after the US Open produced tournament winners at 50/1 and 20/1, and runners-up at 50/1 and 100/1…
 
There’s still loads of tennis to look forward to this season. Including two WTA tournaments next week, the China Open later this month, and the Paris Masters in October (Paris had a 150/1 finalist last season)...

Stay tuned…

P.S
If you’re not a Ones to Watch member yet: join the big-odds quest here...

Enjoy the tennis…
 
Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch