Tennis Betting Advice - April 2021
WTA Charleston - 7/1 for a 2-1 upset...
Wednesday 7th April 2021
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Yesterday’s attempt at a 197/1 laser-guided missile only went slightly astray. All three women won – but in two sets, instead of the desired three…
That included Sara Errani knocking out one of the form women on the tour, Sara Sorribes Tormo, at match outsider odds of 7/2 (4.5). The scoreboard in that one could easily have gone to a third set – it ended 7-5, 7-5 to Errani, with the match containing no fewer than 14 breaks of serve.
In the other two targeted matches, at WTA Charleston, Anastasija Sevastova beat Anastasia Potatapova, 6-3, 6-3. And in the late-night match, Coco Gauff dispatched Tsvetana Pironkova 6-3, 6-0.
As well as Errani winning at underdog odds, the season’s second day of WTA clay-court action also saw American teenager Emma Navarro pull off an upset at 5/1. And at WTA Bogota, the tournament favourite, 18-year-old Clara Tauson, was dumped out in the 1st round by the 4/1 outsider, Daniela Seguel.
There’s one match that twitches my antenna for a women’s upset today…
Lauren Davis v Sofia Kenin
Match scheduled 4.30pm+
I don’t like backing against Kenin. In 2020, Sonya won the Australian Open for us at 50/1, and reached the French Open final at similar prices. But there is no place for sentimentality in betting. And right now, the 2021 version of Sofia Kenin is a shadow of her former self…
The world no.4 puts heaps of pressure on herself. (If you ask me, her father’s ever-watchful eye from the side-lines might be a bit much, too.) And while her tenacity and winning mentality are key factors that put Kenin on our Ones to Watch radar in the first place, she has openly admitting struggling since making the bigtime. Add in having your appendix removed in February, and the road back to full form & confidence looks like it might take a while.
Of course, a 22-year-old as tenacious and talented as this could bounce back into form out of the blue, too. But here on the green clay of Charleston – other than this being a ‘home’ event in the USA – there are few clues to suggest the Kenin comeback is suddenly going to kick in this week. Sonya’s record at this event reads, most recent first: 2nd round, 1st round, 1st round.
Today’s opponent Lauren Davis is 27 years of age, and ranked no.79. The American has been as high as no.26, and she’s had injuries to contend with over the years. The head-to-head v Kenin is tied as 1-1, with the one underdog victory being a 5-7, 6-3, 6-4 score-line in Washington in 2019.
Davis showed some form in Mexico last month, winning four matches in a row to come through qualifying and reach the quarter finals of the main draw. Here in Charleston, Lauren posted a 6-4, 6-2 win over compatriot Madison Brengle in round one this week. And Davis is also a former quarter-finalist at this tournament.
The upset is priced at 11/4 (3.75) today. Since the Aussie Open, all three of Kenin’s matches have gone to three sets, with two 2-1 defeats. I’m sticking with my biggest-price strategy, and going for Davis to win 2-1 at 7/1.
Ones to Watch
WTA Charleston – Volvo Car Open
The match is scheduled for 4.30pm+.
Enjoy the tennis…