Tennis Betting Advice - April 2025
One to Watch in Houston at 12/1...
Wednesday 2nd April 2025
We’re off to Houston this evening, where a Ones to Watch youngster is looking to become the latest USA champion…
Five of the last six ATP Houston winners have been Americans. And these clay courts certainly play into the hands of traditional big ball-strikers more than the more sludgy or thick European and South American red stuff…
In fact, three of the last five U.S Men’s Clay Court Championship finals have been all-USA affairs. With big servers like Ben Shelton and Reilly Opelka doing well here in recent years.
One player I like the look of for a ‘home run’ here in Houston this week is JENSON BROOKSBY. He’s already won his 1st round match in straight sets (after coming through qualifying with two match wins over the weekend), and can still be backed ahead of the 2nd round this evening at odds of 12/1 - having been no bigger than 16/1 before the tournament began…
Brooksby is a former Ones to Watch youngster. Appearing in my pre-season report for 2022, when he was age 21 and ranked no.56…
Since then, Jenson has had an up and down time. This story on the BBC goes into more detail. But the upshot is, now 24 years old but ranked down at no.507 in the world - this young American is looking to rebuild his career and establish himself as a serious challenger…
From 2021 to 2022, Brooksby reached three finals on the ATP Tour (all in the USA). He’s aiming to win one for the first time. And as I’ve said many times before, a 250-grade event like this one in the States, is a very good setting for a player to lift their debut trophy.
Jenson’s speed around the court, and fist-pumping & loaded energy after almost every point, reminds me of Holger Rune - another highly-talented Ones to Watch youngster who is often misunderstood as ‘cocky’ or confrontational.
If he can come through a tricky but winnable clash against the higher-ranked Alejandro Tabilo tonight (8pm, UK time - Sky Sports Tennis/ red button). A match that the bookies make around 50-50, with slight favouritism going to the 27-year-old world no.32 from Chile…
Then Brooksby would be full of confidence moving into the next round, with a chance of upsetting tournament favourite Tommy Paul, who has never got as far as the quarter finals in four visits to Houston.
On the WTA Tour, we have two Each Way picks in the book this week…
Teenager Iva Jovic was a confident and smiling 2-0 winner over Alycia Parks in the Bogota 1st round last night. I watched that match, and Parks was haunted again by the same old demons: too many double faults and unforced errors. Jovic kept her head and played a steady match.
There’s been a big price shift with Jovic. The 17-year-old was 66/1, 50/1, and 40/1 when I flagged her up on Monday. Iva is today trading as short as 7/1 with some firms, and 14/1 at best with Unibet. We’ve certainly got price on our side there.
Our other women’s selection this week is Daria Kasatkina for WTA Charleston. Having switched allegiance from Russia to Australia, she’ll play her first match under the new flag this afternoon (4pm, UK time)...
Priced at 20/1 and 18/1 when I wrote her up at the start of the week, Kasatkina can now be backed at 22/1 as I write (Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, Boylesports, Betway).
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
ATP Houston - Fayez Sarofim & Co. U.S. Men's Clay Court Championship:
Today’s ATP Houston matches start at 8pm, UK time. Bookies will take down Outright Winner markets during play.
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I’ll be back tomorrow with a ‘Notes from the Tour’piece for you.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone