Tennis Betting Advice - August 2019
Go big in Cincinnati at 40/1 and 80/1…
Monday 12th August 2019
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Youngsters coming through…
Back in March, teenager Bianca Andreescu gave us our best result of the year so far – winning WTA Indian Wells at 30/1. Bianca has been battling injury problems since then, but the 19-year-old made a spectacular return last week, winning the Rogers Cup in Toronto in front of home Canadian support, at odds off 33/1…
Bookies have reacted this morning by cutting Andreescu to as short as 12/1 for the US Open which starts on 26th August.
In the men’s Rogers Cup event, our One to Watch in 2019 Daniil Medvedev reached a fifth ATP final of the season. The 23-year-old Russian was 12/1 in Montreal last week, finishing runner-up to 2/1 tournament favourite Rafael Nadal.
Medvedev is having a great season, up to a career high of No.8 in the world. But Daniil would like to have a few more trophies in the cabinet, having lost four of the five finals that he’s competed in this year.
Ones to Watch this week – at 28/1, 40/1 and 80/1…
On to this week’s tennis now and with the US Open in New York starting two weeks today, we have a big tournament in Cincinnati with both the men and women in action…
ATP Cincinnati is a Masters 1000 event – the highest category outside of the Grand Slams – and the roll of honour franks that status with 10 of the last 12 winners coming from the men’s Big Four of Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Andy Murray.
Murray makes his return to singles this week, having come very close to retirement earlier this season following hip surgery. Murray starts with a tough match today against old foe Richard Gasquet. Andy is the 6/4 (2.50) underdog to come through that 1st Round encounter – and a 66/1 outsider in the Outright Winner betting.
At similar prices I like a younger player who’s having his best season on the tour right now…
Taylor Fritz was on our pre-season Ones to Watch list for 2017. Now age 21 and up to a career-high ranking of No.25, the 6’4” American is one to watch for at attractive prices as we enter this hard court stage of the season…
Fritz has been in great form of late, reaching the final in three of his last five ATP tournaments. That run includes a maiden tournament win in June, followed by two hard court runner-up appearances in July.
The Cincinnati draw looks to have worked out well for Fritz this week, with Nadal withdrawing from his section and therefore, opening things up for a lesser-known name to come through. With Djokovic (6/4 favourite) and Federer (9/2) in the other half of the draw and as such avoided until the final, Fritz appeals as an Each Way pick here with prices as big 80/1 available.
In the women’s…
WTA Cincinnati has a history of being won by hard-hitting players. In particular, in the last eight years, names like Serena Williams (twice), Garbine Muguruza, Karolina Pliskova, Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka stand out in that ‘big hitter’ category.
The bottom half of the draw looks the best place to be, away from the likes of French Open champion and top seed Ashleigh Barty (7/1) and other big-name seeds including Petra Kvitova, Sloane Stephens, Karolina Pliskova and Angelique Kerber.
In contrast, in the bottom side of the draw, a few of the star names look a bit vulnerable to me…
For example, reigning Cincinnati champ Kiki Bertens was a surprise winner at 80/1 this time last year; defending the biggest title of her career is a big ask this week at 18/1.
Simona Halep is 15/2 (8.50) at best and the bookies’ favourite at 6/1 in general. The Romanian has made the final here two years running and three times out of the last four – but has yet to actually lift the trophy in Cincinnati. What’s more, Halep retired injured in the Toronto quarter finals last week – and with New York just a fortnight away, the Wimbledon winner may well have more than one eye on the next Grand Slam at the US Open.
Serena Williams also had to retire injured in Toronto – in the final itself – due to back spasms. Again, with New York coming up, I wouldn’t want to be all-in on Serena this week, even at the top price of 10/1.
We’re looking to youth again here. At the prices, I’m going for the two young women that we’ve recently backed as our early Ones to Watch for the US Open…
Amanda Anisimova and Sofia Kenin are both in the bottom half of the Cincinnati draw, but these two ‘Russian-Americans’ are in different quarters so can’t meet each other until the semi finals…
Anisimova has made the quarter finals or better in three of her last four tournaments, and the 17-year-old is very much one to follow on hard courts when available at odds in the region of 40/1, as she is here. This teenager looks set for the big time – and we want to be on her when it happens.
Kenin got to the Toronto semi finals last week and if she can get past Julia Goerges in the 1st Round (Kenin won their most recent meeting, last year) then odds of 28/1 will start to look especially good. Even more so if one or two of the more experienced players like Serena pull out or perform below par. Again, this is a young player on the rise and one to follow at attractive Each Way prices right now. Kenin has made three finals already this season, winning two.
Anisimova and Kenin both have the knack of raising their game and ‘bringing it’ when they face higher-ranked players. They’ve got a taste for the big occasion. You can’t really teach that. Cincinnati this week looks a good time to back them…
Today’s Ones to Watch picks:
ATP Cincinnati – Western & Southern Open
BET: Taylor Fritz @ 80/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 80/1 (81.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 50/1 (51.00) Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral
WTA Cincinnati – Western & Southern Open
BET: Amanda Anisimova @ 40/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 40/1 (41.00) William Hill, 33/1 (34.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
BET: Sofia Kenin @ 28/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 28/1 (29.00) Bet365, 27/1 (28.00) NetBet, 10Bet, 25/1 (26.00) William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral
Player starts from 4pm today, UK time.
You can watch ATP Cincinnati matches live on Amazon Prime Video, and WTA Cincinnati on BT Sport.
I’ll be back later in the week with more as our build-up to the US Open continues.
Enjoy the tennis…