Tennis Betting Advice - August 2019
US Open: Day One – including Outright Winner picks…
Monday 26th August 2019
US Open - Day One
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day One of your US Open 2019 daily service.
It’s a hot Bank Holiday here in the UK, and a similarly sunny forecast over in New York…
I’ll be in your inbox by 11am every day for the next two weeks, sharing all my US Open thoughts, opinion, analysis and advice with you.
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’ll be on hand via email.
You can message me at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Looking at the draws…
We’re kicking off today by focusing on the Outright markets – Quarter Winner and Outright Winner.
With the draws at hand, we can map out potential routes through to the finals, and use that to look for value prices, standout players and underdogs with a chance of causing an upset…
In the men’s…
Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are both in the top half of the draw. World No.1 and reigning US Open champion Djokovic is the 6/5 (2.20) tournament favourite. He’s in Quarter 1. Current World No.3 Federer is 15/2 (8.50) for the trophy. Roger is in Quarter 2.
The last six times that Federer has made a Grand Slam final, he’s either reached the final in his most recent tournament prior to that Major – or entered two warm-up events on that playing surface. Going into the US Open this week, Roger has made just one hard court outing, going out in the 2nd Round in Cincinnati. That appearance was his first since the Wimbledon final.
You can never write off the man they call the GOAT – Greatest of All Time. But I’m willing to suggest someone could challenge the 38-year-old in Quarter 2 of the draw…
Along the route to the quarter final, the likes of Lucas Pouille and David Goffin can certainly cause the Swiss star problems. And at the quarter final stage itself, Kei Nishikori and Borna Coric are potential opponents, both of whom have managed to beat the great man on hard courts in the past.
One to Watch – Alex De Minaur…
If we’re dabbling in taking on the big boys, then it’s paramount that we take a nice big price. At 150/1+ in the Outright Winner market and 25/1+ to win Quarter 2, Alex De Minaur fits the bill for me here…
The 20-year-old Australian was one of the names on our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2019 list. In 2018, Alex reached his first two ATP finals. This season, he’s won his first two titles. Both those trophy wins came on hard courts, first on home ground in Sydney in January – then in the USA at Atlanta last month.
Of all the young players on the edges of a big breakthrough in the men’s game, the World No.38 looks a little off the radar compared to some of the other current names. At massive prices, he’s one to follow here…
De Minaur can’t meet Federer until the quarter finals. A run to that stage would make this the best Grand Slam result of the young Aussie’s career so far. His path to that part of the draw could potentially open up nicely. There’s a tricky opener against Pierre-Hugues Herbert today, which Alex is a 1/3 (1.30) favourite to win. After that, bigger names such as Coric and Nishikori both arrive in New York out of form – and Nishikori often has injury issues hanging over him.
Odds of 150/1 and even 200/1 with BetVictor might tempt you in for an Each Way bet in the Outright market. My top recommendation would be 28/1 or 25/1 for Alex as an outside chance to win Quarter 2.
One to Watch – Nick Kyrgios…
In the bottom half of the men’s draw, you could make a case for a number of players.
Rafael Nadal is the big name at the bottom of the draw (Quarter 4), and 3/1 (4.00) second favourite for the title. Rafa’s last two results in New York have been: semi final (retired) and final (won). Nadal is the man to beat in this half, of course. But there are plenty of young pretenders in there, too…
In Quarter 3, we have our ‘wild card’ One to Watch from last week, Nick Kyrgios at 40/1. Bet365 briefly stuck their neck out and went twice that price for the unpredictable Aussie. They’re currently 50/1…
With one of the leading New Generation, Stefanos Tsitsipas (40/1) in that quarter. Along with the ever-reliable Roberto Bautista-Agut (66/1). This section will be competitive. But it has to be said that Nick has a pretty decent draw in terms of not having any of the Big Three in his quarter.
Having said that, the fact that he can’t meet Nadal until the semis and Djokovic or Federer ‘til the final might not be quite as good as it sounds; Nick tends to raise his came for the biggest matches, but struggle to concentrate against lower-ranked opposition.
However, overall, this 2019 draw represents as good a chance as Nick has had yet to reach a Grand Slam semi final. Whether he can stay fit, put his game together and hold himself together mentally for the full fortnight is a big question. But then again – 50/1 is a big price. If you’re not on Nick already, take today’s standout quote.
General odds of 7/1 for Kyrgios to win Quarter 3 and 40/1 for the tournament suggest he’d be 4/1 to win his semi final match (eg. v Nadal). If Nick was to get that far, 40/1+ would give you loads of points to play with. And I reckon he should be a bit shorter than 4/1 to beat Rafa, too.
We may well add another player or two to our men’s picks in the days to come. That’s my take on the day one prices though – De Minaur for Quarter 2 at 25/1, and Kyrgios as a big-price, Each Way outsider at the standout 50/1 in the Outright Winner market.
In the women’s…
We got two nice prices with our two early Ones to Watch picks. Sofia Kenin at 66/1 is now 25/1. Dayana Yastremska at 100/1 is now 66/1.
Those two have been placed in the same part of the draw, with a potential 4th Round meeting on the cards.
The bookies make Kenin 8/1 to come through Quarter 3 to reach the semis, with Yastremska a 14/1 shot. I agree with the bookies in terms of giving Kenin the better chances of the two. Compared to our initial 66/1, that current 25/1 price is a little short for me. But I haven’t changed my opinion about how good either of those two young women are – or how good they could yet become.
Over the next week or so, one or two other women are likely to join our big-price club.
In terms of draw-specific advice today though, I like this player…
One to Watch – Karolina Pliskova…
In the bottom half it looks worth opposing the biggest names with Serena Williams (5/1 tournament favourite) still looking for a first trophy win since coming back from having a child, and also recently injured. And French Open champion Ashleigh Barty (10/1) yet to get fully back in the groove after her impressive start-of-summer success.
I like the chances of ‘Ms Reliable,’ Karolina Pliskova as a 14/1 or 12/1 contender from the bottom half of the draw…
No player has won more matches on tour than Pliskova’s 42 this season. The current World No.3 has made the quarter finals or better in nine of her 14 tournaments in 2019, so you can see why I call her Ms Reliable.
In three of the last four seasons, the 6’1” Czech has finished top of the WTA year-end figures for Most Aces. That includes in 2016 when she made the final here in New York. Karolina currently sits top of the Most Aces chart for 2019, too.
Hard courts are her best surface and the US Open has been her best Grand Slam. After that runner-up appearance three years ago, Pliskova has made the quarter finals the last two years.
Pliskova has won three WTA titles this season. No other player on the WTA Tour can top that. Her build-up to the US Open this summer consists of six matches and four wins (two quarter finals). The two defeats came to Bianca Andreescu in Toronto – who went on to win that tournament. And to Svetlana Kuznetsova in Cincinnati, who went on to reach the final, too. Both those matches were close-run affairs, going the distance to three sets.
With the serous business of the final Grand Slam of the season now upon us, Karolina can step up her form and go deep here. Especially with this draw. She’s the favourite to win Quarter 3, at 7/2 (4.50) at best with Ladbrokes. Potential quarter final opponents could be the aforementioned Kenin or Yastremska, or Madison Keys who is 5/1 at best for Quarter 3 and 14/1 for the trophy.
Pliskova has the best run through to the quarter finals in my eyes. And that makes her my Outright Winner pick at 12/1+.
Today’s Ones to Watch picks:
Men’s – Quarter 2 Winner:
BET: Alex De Minaur @ 28/1
BOOKIES: 28/1 Betway, 25/1 William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, 888 Sport, Unibet
Men’s – Outright Winner (if you’re not on him already):
BET: Nick Kyrgios @ 50/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 50/1 Bet365, William Hill, 40/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet
Women’s – Outright Winner:
BET: Karolina Pliskova @ 14/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 14/1 NetBet, 10Bet, 12/1 Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral
The Rollover – bet No.1…
Alongside our daily & tournament picks, we’ll be looking for entertainment at the US Open with our Rollover bet…
The aim is to roll a £10 stake over with match winner selections, cashing-out when we get to the £100 mark. I believe that’s an achievable target. We’re not reaching for the stars. So far this season we’ve had five Rollover attempts and one success – with an 8-match streak rolling a tenner up to £117 in May.
We’re kicking off Day One in New York with bet No.1 in a new £10 Rollover:
Anastasija Sevastova to beat Eugenie Bouchard
Sevastova has gone semi final, quarter final, quarter final in her last three US Opens
Su-Wei Hsieh to beat Jana Cepelova
Hsieh is having a great season and can outsmart her lower-ranked opponent here
Iga Swiatek to beat Ivana Jorovic
Teenager Swiatek is a rising star and into the world’s Top 50 for the first time
This women’s Match Winner treble pays out at around 9/10 (1.90) with Bet365, and 4/5+ (1.80+) with BetVictor, Betway, William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet.
I’ll be back at 11am tomorrow with your next US Open daily email…
Enjoy the tennis…