OTW Extra Email Archive - August 2019

US Open Countdown – One to Watch at 100/1...

Wednesday 21st August 2019

In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:

  • Women’s Grand Slam trends...
  • Looking for a big-price first-timer...
  • Teenager at 100/1...

US Open Countdown:

One to Watch at 100/1…

In yesterday’s OTW Extra email we looked at the form players heading to New York for next week’s US Open.

Today I want to draw attention to a specific trend in the women’s game...

The last 11 women’s Grand Slams have seen nine different trophy winners. Six of those women were first-time Major winners.

Those six paid out at pre-tournament odds of: 100/1, 40/1, 10/1, 6/1, 50/1, 22/1.

And when we focus on the US Open in particular...

  • 3 of last 4 US Open winners – first Grand Slam win
  • 6 of last 8 US Open finalists – first Grand Slam final

The prices of those six finalists were: 200/1 (won), 500/1 (runner-up), 33/1 (runner-up), 40/1 (won), 16/1 (runner-up), 50/1 (won).

Looking for a big-price first-timer...

Those facts and figures say we should be actively looking for a new name to go on the trophy at the US Open 2019...

Here are the current WTA Top-20-ranked women yet to reach a Grand Slam final:

Player (Ranking)                 US Open price
Elina Svitolina (5th)              25/1
Kiki Bertens (7th)                 33/1
Aryna Sabalenka (9th)          28/1
Anastasija Sevastova (12th)  100/1
Belinda Bencic (13th)            50/1
Bianca Andreescu (15th)       20/1
Johanna Konta (16th)           66/1
Qiang Wang (18th)              150/1
Sofia Kenin (20th)                25/1

From that batch of players, we’re on Sofia Kenin at early odds of 66/1 (now 25/1, after reaching back-to-back semi finals in Toronto and Cincinnati).

From the other names in that rankings-based selection, none of them particularly appeal to me today. I may feel differently once the draw is made and the early rounds are being played. But right now, either a drop in form (Bertens, Wang, Konta) or an uninspiring price (Andreescu) puts me off.

  • Amanda Anisimova was also on our ‘Ones to Watch’ list. The 17-year-old has pulled out of the US Open, after the tragic and sudden death of Amanda’s father, Konstantin Anisimov

100/1 youngster...

Looking further down the early Outright Winner betting list, for a big price with plenty of potential...

At 19 years of age, World No.33 Dayana Yastremska is the fifth-youngest player in the Top 100. The Ukrainian teenager has already won two WTA titles this season, following on from a maiden trophy win last year.

Yastremska was one of five women to feature in our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2019 report.

I also put her up as One to Watch as a 100/1 outsider at Wimbledon this summer. Dayana did well enough there, reaching the 4th Round at SW19 – one win off the quarter finals – for what was her best Grand Slam run to date.

In the build-up to New York this month, 3rd & 2nd Round defeats, in Toronto & Cincinnati respectively, don’t look as bad in hindsight. In Toronto, Kenin beat Yastremska – and went on to reach the semi finals. In Cincinnati, Dayana lost to Svetlana Kuznetsova – and had two match points for a 2-0 win... Kuznetsova saved them, and then went all the way to the final.

Having spoken about how a freak injury suffered by her mother affected her earlier this year, Yastremska is looking ready to move on and get back to winning ways.

Like Kenin, Yastremska plays a modern, no-fear brand of attacking tennis. She has the power and big shots to pull it off. And also the flair needed to pull out a sliced drop shot or quick-thinking lob when necessary. But mainly, this young woman’s game is all about aggression. So much so, I believe she’s actually capable of intimidating several opponents.

When she’s in the zone, Yastremska is genuinely as good a ball striker as there is on the women’s tour right now. Once she makes the big breakthrough at a Grand Slam, we won’t see odds of 100/1 and 80/1 again for a while – if ever. She’s going on the list as One to Watch for the US Open.

  • Yastremska is available @ 100/1 Each Way with Bet365, 80/1 Skybet, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Latest US Open odds here

I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at the outside chances for the men’s US Open...

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch Extra