OTW Extra Email Archive - August 2019
US Open Countdown – Form horses heading to New York…
Tuesday 20th August 2019
In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:
US Open Countdown:
Form horses heading to New York…
Last week’s Cincinnati Masters was the last big tournament before the US Open. Cincy threw up some whopping prices…
WTA Cincinnati:
ATP Cincinnati:
So far this season – from all the events played on the ATP & WTA Tours and in Grand Slams – 55 of the 91 tournament winners (60%) have been at odds of 10/1+. And 68 of the runners-up (75%) have been at those double-figure+ odds.
Add in the fact that recent US Opens have seen some massive prices in the finals. Including a 50/1 women’s winner last summer, and a 40/1 winner the year before… a 150/1 men’s runner-up in 2017, and 25/1 winner in 2016. And once again – we head into a Major tournament with all the incentive we need to take on the favourites and go after the big Each Way prices…
Form horses…
Recent results give us a few clues to who might be heading to New York at the top of their game. But it’s not as simple as ‘won last time out – so must win again’…
In women’s Grand Slams in particular, there’s always the possibility of a player coming from nowhere to lift the trophy. In 2015, Flavia Pennetta won the US Open as a huge 200/1 outsider. That was the only Grand Slam final she ever reached. Same goes for Jelena Ostapenko; a 100/1 French Open winner in 2017, that remains her sole Grand Slam final run to date.
Of course, the formbook can tell us some things. At the French Open earlier this year, our 40/1 Ones to Watch pick Marketa Vondrousova got to the final for an Each Way payout. Heading into Paris, Vondrousova had made two finals and three quarter finals from her previous five tournaments.
In the build-up to New York this summer, Sofia Kenin has just made back-to-back semi finals in prestigious Premier 5 events at WTA Toronto and WTA Cincinnati. On both occasions, the player that beat Kenin in the semis went on to lift the trophy.
We got on Kenin at the right time when naming her as One to Watch for the US Open at 66/1. The bookies now make the American a 25/1 shot at best.
Beware the bandwagon…
We’ve got Kenin at a great price nice and early. But you can’t back them all. And it’s important not to follow the herd and chase after a bet that’s already left town…
Bookies love a bandwagon-jumper. Don’t be one. When the bookies dramatically slash a price, it doesn’t mean that bet is a ‘sure thing.’ In betting, there’s no such thing as a sure thing.
Daniil Medvedev is the flavour of the month right now. And rightly so. The 23-year-old Russian (one of five men on our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2019 list) has just reached three finals in a row, won the biggest title of his career and climbed to a career high of No.5 in the world.
After his red-hot August streak of 14 wins from 16 matches – and beating World No.1 Novak Djokovic along the way – Medvedev’s price for the US Open has been hacked in from 100/1 at the end of July to a general 16/1 today. Ladbrokes are as short as 12/1.
I like Medvedev. And he’s been playing brilliantly. But those current 16/1 and 12/1 quotes are not value. At those odds, he’s not a good bet – in my opinion. You might disagree with me. And fair enough. But I’ll be going after players at the larger end of the pricing spectrum – before the odds get trimmed. I have one or two other players in mind. More on them in the next day or two.
As Mark Petchey astutely pointed out in the commentary box after the Cincinnati victory, small margins played a big part in Medvedev’s semi final & final wins. He was gunning it on 2nd serves, including some brave bombs against Djokovic when trailing on the scoreboard. That’s a risky tactic and as such, it won’t pay off every time. But the fact that Medvedev won that match against the World No.1 was the major reason his US Open price got slashed at the weekend. Small margins – and a big price shift.
In Medvedev’s own words, after lifting the trophy…
“So I have this second serve and I'm, like, Okay. In Russia we say "who doesn't risk, doesn't drink Champagne”…
A case in point…
This time last year, Aryna Sabalenka was the talking horse heading into the US Open. In the summer of 2018, the young Belarussian made the semi finals in Cincinnati – then won WTA San Jose the week before New York…
Sabalenka’s price was obliterated and she arrived at Flushing Meadows as one of the favourites, trading at around 12/1. Granted, she reached the 4th Round and was only beaten by eventual US Open champion Naomi Osaka. But the bookies don’t pay out on a 4th Round exit. And in terms of trading, at that stage, odds of 12/1 would’ve left you little room for manoeuvre.
I’ll be back tomorrow with more US Open pointers. There’s lots to look forward to. And plenty of players still available at appealing prices…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson