Tennis Betting Advice - August 2019
US Open: Day Two – a 33/1 outsider…
Tuesday 27th August 2019
US Open - Day Two
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day Two of your US Open 2019 daily service.
I’m in your inbox 11am every day, sharing all my US Open thoughts, opinion, analysis and advice with you.
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’ll be on hand via email.
You can message me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Square eyes…
I watched a lot of tennis yesterday. Loads of it. I managed to get out in the sun before play began. After that, I was glued to the screen.
After a few teething problems last year, Amazon Prime Video look to be doing a good job now. You can choose from stacks of live matches to watch with streams from most courts, alongside the main broadcast channel – and also replays, too.
All about the ‘W’…
In the early rounds of a Grand Slam, it’s all about getting the W on the board and moving on to the next match.
Day One went okay – every player that we wanted to win, did win.
Karolina Pliskova was not at her best during her 7-6, 7-6 victory over a fellow Czech ranked 138 places below her. But a straight sets win is a straight sets win, and our Outright Winner pick sounded positive and was smiling in her on-court interview after the match.
Our two big-odds pre-tournament Ones to Watch picks both navigated their way through the 1st Round, too. Dayana Yastremska won 2-1. Sofia Kenin won 2-0, and was particularly impressive in that she didn’t lose her serve at all. That’s rare for a women’s match. Kenin’s 80% of 1st Serve Points Won was a strong statistic, too.
In contrast, Su-Wei Hsieh won just six of her 15 service games, and gave away 17 break points. Despite that, the tricky ball player from Taiwan still managed to come out on top in her match – eventually getting over the line to help complete our Match Winner treble for our first Rollover bet (see below).
In the men’s, 20-year-old Alex De Minaur showed an excellent attitude and battling qualities – two characteristics that are already becoming his trademarks – by fending off a comeback from Pierre-Hugues Herbert to win 3-1 and move into Round 2. We’re on the young Australian as an outside chance to win Quarter 2.
The top half puzzle…
The 1st Round continues today with a total of 64 matches.
In the men’s, the bottom half of the draw are in action with 3/1 tournament second-favourite Rafael Nadal the headline act. Rafa opens the night session at Midnight (UK time). The Spaniard takes on John Millman, who memorably reached the quarter finals here in New York 12 months ago, knocking out Roger Federer for the biggest win of the Aussie’s career.
In the women’s draw, it’s the turn of the top half. That includes World No.1 and reigning US Open champion Naomi Osaka (12/1), World No.4 and Wimbledon champ Simona Halep (8/1), World No.7 Kiki Bertens (40/1), two-time Grand Slam winner and this season’s Australian Open runner-up Petra Kvitova (33/1) and the hotly-tipped 19-year-old Bianca Andreescu (12/1). And that’s to name just five.
With all that going on, the top half of the women’s draw is a puzzle. I’ve been staring at it. I’ve been toying with permutations on the draw-sheet. As well as keeping in mind that old Murray Walker saying from F1: Anything can happen – and it usually does…
I could put a question mark next to each of those five women.
Osaka sprung a 50/1 upset here last year. This time she has the No.1 tag resting heavy on her, and a whole load of pressure.
Halep has failed to get further than the 3rd Round in six of her nine previous visits to Flushing Meadows. Simona turned over a similar stat to triumph at Wimbledon this summer. But she was 18/1 at SW19, compared to just 8/1 here.
Bertens is a freshly-minted Top 10 player but has shown some wobbles and a drop-off in form since making that breakthrough. At the hard-court Grand Slams in Melbourne and New York, Kiki is yet to get past a 3rd Round in a total of 16 attempts.
Kvitova arrives here as something of an unknown quantity, undercooked after a recent injury layoff. Petra has made the semi final or final at each of the other three Slams, but two quarter finals from 12 appearances makes the US Open her least successful Major. I’ve also heard it said that the hustle & bustle New York atmosphere doesn’t sit well with the mild-mannered Czech – but don’t take that as gospel.
Still only a teenager, Andreescu has yet to win a main draw match at the US Open. That piece of form can be put down to age and injury. But still, odds of 12/1 look pretty skinny to me. Bianca has been on our radar, for sure. The Canadian won Indian Wells for us in March at a big price. But she’s been largely injured since. Bianca made a glorious return in Toronto this month, though, winning her second high-profile hard-court trophy of the year.
Before Indian Wells, Andreescu was in the 50/1 bracket for New York. I can’t pretend to like today’s 12/1. And I don’t jump on bandwagons. Bianca is great to watch and a seriously good tennis player. But fitness issues do seem to keep lingering. And she has a habit of getting into long, three-set matches, which doesn’t help. In Toronto, her first four matches went the distance and required a deciding set. In the two-week, seven-round slog of a Grand Slam, that amount of court time could catch up with her in week two. I’ll be watching with interest though.
Call me crazy…
Sloane Stephens is having a particularly poor slump in form right now. Her 2019 hard-court win-loss is in the negative, at 7-9. Sloane’s US Open build-up has seen three flat results: 1st Round in Washington, 1st Round in Toronto and then 2nd Round in Cincinnati.
But Sloane has always been hard to predict. That’s one of the things that makes her such an intriguing player to follow. As the commentary-box team will likely point out, we never know which Sloane will turn up. As with Nick Kyrgios – if it’s the good version, then she’s good enough to beat anyone, anywhere…
It can only take one thing to flick the switch. If you’re looking for a good sign, then the fact that Kamau Murray is back as coach for the US Open is a big green light. Stephens and Murray looked a great team when she won the trophy two years ago. Getting Murray back looks a positive move and could get the 26-year-old American playing in the right mindset this fortnight.
What’s more, Sloane is a big-time player. I’d always trust her more in a Grand Slam than a weekly WTA tournament. And her Major form is not to be sniffed at, even taking into account the somewhat inevitable slump after winning New York two summers ago (lost in 1st Round at the next Slam, Australian Open 2018).
Filter out Wimbledon, too, where Sloane has never got past the 3rd Round on the grass. And since Australia last year, Stephen’s Slam form reads: final (runner-up), quarter final, 4th Round, quarter final. And that’s a supposedly out of form player.
For further evidence, take note that Stephens has her best results when playing ‘at home’ in the States. Four of her six career titles have been won in the USA.
Currently ranked No.10 in the world, Stephens at 33/1 looks a better prospect than the two other Top 10 women at that larger end of the odds, Bertens and Kvitova.
A big price shouldn’t put you off backing Sloane. The two biggest trophies of her career – the US Open and Miami Open – were won at odds of 40/1 and 66/1 respectively. And Stephens was 50/1 when she reached the French Open final…
We got on Sloane as One to Watch at both the US Open 2017 and French Open 2018. As a 33/1 outsider in New York this time – with her old coach back and the big stage beckoning – I’m putting her up as a potential ‘surprise package’ once again.
The organisers know Stephens is a box office player. They’ve scheduled her as the last match in the night session on the main Arthur Ashe stadium court tonight. Sloane is 1/3 (1.33) to win that 1st Round encounter, against World No.127 Anna Kalinskaya of Russia.
This is an outsider selection. The odds say that. The form says it, too. But as they say – class is permanent. I wouldn’t put it past Sloane to pull another good run out of nowhere here.
Today’s Ones to Watch pick:
Women’s – Outright Winner:
BET: Sloane Stephens @ 33/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 33/1 Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports
Latest Women’s Outright Winner odds here
The Rollover – bet No.2…
Alongside our daily & tournament picks, we’ll be looking for entertainment at the US Open with our Rollover bet…
The aim is to roll a £10 stake over with match winner selections, cashing-out when we get to the £100 mark. I believe that’s an achievable target. We’re not reaching for the stars. So far this season we’ve had five Rollover attempts and one success – with an 8-bet streak rolling a tenner up to £117 in May.
Bet No.1 won @ 9/10 (1.90) on Monday to turn our starting £10 stake into £19 going on bet No.2 today…
Rollover bet:
Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Casper Ruud
Struff is having his best season on tour, on course for his highest ever ranking and has beaten four Top 10 players in 2019. Ruud is tipped for the future but Struff is the man to back today
Anett Kontaveit to beat Sara Sorribes Tormo
Kontaveit beat Sorribes Tormo 6-3, 6-2 at the Australian Open earlier this year and can show her hard-court strength again here. Her Spanish opponent much prefers clay
Donna Vekic to beat Richel Hogenkamp
This is No.23 v No.207 on the rankings and Vekic is a strong favourite to take this one
This Match Winner treble pays out at around 9/10 (1.90) with Betway, and 17/20+ (1.85+) with Bet365, William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet.
I’ll be back at 11am tomorrow with your next US Open daily email…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson