Tennis Betting Advice - August 2020
Ones to Watch in Lexington at 33/1...
Monday 10th August 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
We kicked off our week in the usual fashion last night with Sunday Night Club. In that preview we looked at WTA Prague, which starts this morning.
After last week’s tournament success in Palermo, we’re going after the outsider prices and Each Way opportunities once again.
Early-doors Prague picks 66/1 Veronika Kudermetova and 200/1 Linda Fruhvirtova were now trading at 50/1 and 80/1 in general when I logged on first thing today.
Although as I write, you can still get 100/1 for the teenager Fruhvirtova at Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook. And BetVictor have dangled 200/1. The 15-year-old plays in the 1st round this afternoon, where we’ve also taken odds of 4/1+ for Fruhvirtova to spring an upset against fellow Czech, Kristyna Pliskova.
As I said last night, it could well be that the youngster comes a cropper today. The bookies’ prices say that is by far the most likely outcome. But with such a large upside in the odds, we want to be on this potential star of the future while we can get pre-fame prices like these.
Ones to Watch in Lexington at 33/1…
The other tournament taking place this week is WTA Lexington. This is a brand new event on the calendar, and the first full-level pro tournament to be held in the States since the tennis returned this month.
The organisers have lured quite a few big names to Kentucky for this hard court event…
Including Serena Williams, who is the 10/3 (4.33) favourite in the Outright Winner market. Her sister Venus Williams (28/1). Former US Open winner Sloane Stephens (18/1). Our 18-year-old One to Watch in 2020 player, Amanda Anisimova (9/1). And former World No.1, Victoria Azarenka (25/1).
Those five women are all in the top half of the draw. Plotting a route through to the final while grabbing an attractive price looks a tricky business there.
In the bottom half of the Lexington draw-sheet, there looks to be plenty of scope for an outsider selection or two…
Aryna Sabalenka is the leading name at the bottom of the draw, with the bookies making the Belarusian 9/2 (5.5) in general for the title. All nine of Sabalenka’s career tournament wins at all levels have come on hard courts. But for me, she’s hard to trust when the favourite, due to an all-or-nothing playing style that can be, by its nature, hit or miss.
The two players and prices I like for an under-the-radar run here are both in the third quarter of the draw, meaning they can’t meet Sabalenka until the semi final stage, should any of them get that far…
This segment of the draw also avoids American teenager Coco Gauff until the final four. Gauff is another of our Ones to Watch in 2020 players, but the hype machine around the 16-year-old means her prices often lack any juice or generosity from the bookmakers. Gauff is 11/1 at best this week.
Magda Linette plays honest, hard-hitting and hard-working tennis. The unflashy Pole has had her best results relatively late in her career. Now 28 year of age, Linette reached her highest ever world ranking of no.33 earlier this year. And since August last year, Magda had her best ever spell on tour, winning two WTA titles, both on hard courts.
Linette faces a tricky 1st round opponent, with Lauren Davis (who is 40/1 in general in the Outright market) owning a 3-1 head-to-head record. However, Linette looks up for the fight whenever I’ve seen her play, and Davis usually seems to have some part of her body taped up. The bookies have the Polish player as the favourite to progress from that tie.
If she gets through that one, Linette – who is 6th seed here – can’t face a seeded player until Johanna Konta (18/1) in the quarter finals. And that’s only if Konta gets that far, of course. Jo looked rusty at the recent Battle of the Brits event, and has lost once this year already to 1st round opponent Marie Bouzkova (28/1).
Linette could put a run together in this section of the draw, and odds of 33/1 make her well worth following.
The winner of the Bouzkova-Konta match will face either a qualifier or Anna Blinkova. At 33/1 and 28/1, the 21-year-old Russian also has some outsider potential here. Before lockdown, Blinkova reached a career high of no.54 in the world…
All four of Anna’s tournament wins on the lower-tier tours have come on hard courts. Including a trophy win at New Haven, USA last September. Blinkova beat Lauren Davis in the semi finals there.
Should she get past an as yet unknown qualifier in the 1st round, I’d fancy Blinkova to give Konta or Bouzkova a tough match. The Russian has never played Konta, but she beat Bouzkova 2-0 on hard courts last year.
In conclusion, with the top of the Lexington field loaded with big names, the bottom half is the place for us to be hunting. And you could do worse than put a small portion of last week’s winnings towards Linette and Blinkova here, at attractive odds of around 33/1 and 28/1.
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner picks – Each Way
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
Note: the bookies I’ve mentioned there have a ‘non-runner no bet’ policy for Outright Winner bets. Find out more here.
WTA Lexington will be shown live on Amazon Prime Video every day this week.
Play starts at 3pm (bookies suspend their Outright Winner markets during play).
I’ll be back in the week with the latest on the events in Prague and Lexington.
Thank you for the emails and (very) kind words after last night’s Palermo final. It’s really great to know you were following the players, and made money from the picks.
It seems a good few of you got 25/1 or 20/1 on Ferro. Colin B wrote in to say he only got 16/1, but as he says, “No matter winners are winners !!”
Feel free to get in touch at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Enjoy the tennis…