Tennis Betting Advice - August 2020
WTA New York – Ones to Watch at 25/1…
Friday 21st August 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
The New York double-header starts on Saturday, with the 1st round of both the men’s & women’s events at the Western & Southern Open.
This tournament has been moved from Cincinnati for this year, with an informal name change to ATP & WTA New York being used by most bookmakers. Taking place at Flushing Meadows, New York, which of course is the famous venue where the US Open itself is set to go ahead without fans at the end of the month.
One lesson we learned at WTA Lexington, Kentucky earlier this month. The ‘home’ players could be worth following in New York over the next few weeks. With the coronavirus situation causing travel issues in recent months, it could be that the American-based players have an edge in terms of having had more time to adapt to the conditions here.
Half of the women in the Lexington draw were Americans, and three of the four semi finalists ended up being USA players. Including Jennifer Brady, who lifted her maiden WTA title there, at 12/1.
Brady streaked through that week, without dropping a set. She’s similar prices in a tougher-looking field of players this week – although Skybet are a standout 22/1. Brady is more like 14/1 and 11/1 elsewhere.
In the opposite half of the WTA New York draw, 50/1 Australian Open winner Sofia Kenin is no.2 seed, with the American in with the favourites at around 11/1.
Consulting our 2020 list…
Looking to latch onto one at a big price before the cat is out of the bag, and with many of these players involved in their first tournament for five months, we can look to our 2020 list of players for inspiration…
That list produced 50/1 Kenin for us at the Australian Open. Bigger prices are available for the women in our 2020 report that are yet to make the big breakthrough at a Grand Slam. As I write, Outright Winner markets for WTA New York are available with bookies including Bet365, Skybet, Ladbrokes & Coral:
From those five, Gauff and Anisimova play under the American flag. And Gauff, Anisimova and Swiatek are all still teenagers.
Two for WTA New York – at 25/1 and bigger…
Swiatek is one I like as she plays a fearless brand of tennis. Last month, we got the 19-year-old in the book for the French Open at fancy prices. The thinking there was to back the Pole on her best surface, clay. Iga is pretty darn good on all courts, though, and a run here in New York is by no means out of the question.
The 2nd round could see her run into problems though, against Elena Rybakina…
We flagged up Russian-born Kazakhstan representative Rybakina during lockdown, noting in April that the 21-year-old was top of the match wins list so far in 2020. With four WTA finals to her name already this season, all achieved in January and February, and all coming at hard-court events.
With odds of 25/1, 33/1 and 50/1 available as the bookies start to put up their markets this Friday afternoon, Rybakina looks one to keep on side. If the likes of Kenin and Madison Keys (the two highest-seeded women in this quarter of the draw) don’t bring their A-game, Elena could well be the one to power through.
While big names like top seed Karolina Pliskova, and two-time Grand Slam tournament winners Naomi Osaka and Petra Kvitova, occupy the top half of the draw, all around 10/1 each to win. The bottom half features Serena Williams as the no.3 seed and 5/1 tournament favourite.
In Serena’s section, I can’t ignore odds of 25/1 & 28/1 for Cori Gauff…
In recent times when I’ve sat down to do my tournament previews, the teenager has been more like 10/1, 12/1 or 14/1 in the Outright Winner markets. In this big, star-studded field, the 16-year-old is at more attractive odds.
‘Coco’ Gauff has the game, athleticism and tennis brain to beat anyone right now – including Serena. That all-American clash of the ages could be a 3rd round blockbuster here…
Gauff was extremely impressive at Lexington earlier this month, where she reached the semi finals, only beaten by the streaking Jennifer Brady. Greg Rusedski declared that the teenager is the best mover in the women’s game at the moment, bar none. And I’m not going to argue with him.
Gauff is pure talent right now, and is learning and progressing all the time. If she carries on at this rate, we might not see odds of 25/1+ on her again for years.
Men’s field stacked with big names…
In the men’s event, the top half of the draw is bossed by world no.1 and Even Money (2.0) ATP New York favourite, Novak Djokovic. Last summer’s breakthrough player, our One to Watch in 2019 name Daniil Medvedev, is also in that half, and around a 7/1 chance.
Men from our Ones to Watch in 2020 list include the wildly talented Canadian, Felix Auger-Aliassime (top half of the draw), and American big server, Reilly Opelka (bottom half). Those two young men – age 20 and 22 respectively – are priced around the 66/1 and 80/1 mark for this event.
We should also keep an eye on 22-year-old Andrey Rublev, who was our 150/1 & 100/1 early-bird pick for this year’s US Open, from back in January before everything changed. Like Rybakina, the Russian started 2020 like a train, winning back to back ATP titles in January…
He then ran into his friend and 1997-born peer-group glamour name, Alexander Zverev, in the 4th round of the Australian Open. They could meet again in the 3rd round here. The career head-to-head on the main tour is 4-0 to Zverev. The German is 5th seed, and 16/1 at best for the trophy.
Rublev is 40/1. He also faces a tricky 1st round match against Dan Evans (250/1). The head-to-head there is tied at 2-2, and Evans will fancy his chances against lots of players right now, having made huge strides in the last year or so.
I haven’t even mentioned other big names like Dominic Thiem (2nd seed, bottom half, 7/1 at best). Or 4th seed Stefanos Tsitsipas, who is also in the bottom half of the draw, and a top price of just 10/1.
With Djokovic, Medvedev, Zverev, Thiem, Tsitsipas, as well as the other Top 8 seeds, all having a Bye through to the 2nd round. We might not see much change in the markets over the weekend while the 1st round matches get played out.
Unlike the women’s tour, this is the very first ATP event since the tennis returned. With all that in mind, I’m going to return to the ATP New York markets on Monday.
In the WTA event, Rybakina and Gauff are my Each Way picks, at 25/1+.
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner picks – Each Way
Western & Southern Open – women’s
(WTA New York/ Cincinnati)
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
Other bookies, including Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, NetBet & 10Bet, will price up before play starts on Saturday.
Note: the bookies I’ve mentioned there have a ‘non-runner no bet’ policy for Outright Winner bets. Find out more here. That’s a rule worth looking out for this week, as with the coronavirus situation and players being tested regularly in New York, you never know if someone will have to pull out.
WTA New York will be shown live on Amazon Prime Video every day.
Play starts at 4pm Saturday, UK time (bookies suspend their Outright Winner markets during play).
I’ll be back on Monday with a look at how the men’s field is shaping up.
Enjoy the tennis…