Tennis Betting Advice - July 2020
An early One to Watch for the French Open…
Monday 6th July 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
An early One to Watch for the French Open…
In Saturday’s email we talked about two players from our Ones to Watch in 2020 list.
From the men’s list, Reilly Opelka pulled out injured from the All-American Team Cup at the weekend. Our match bet on Reilly was void.
In the women’s, teenager Iga Swiatek landed the Match Winner odds against Jil Belen Teichmann on Saturday. As I said ahead of that one, this Polish youngster is a player that I’m very keen on. I genuinely believe that Iga has got the game and attitude to challenge for big titles in the next few years.
The 19-year-old went on to win the Elite Spirit Open exhibition in Switzerland last week. Swiatek won all five of her matches at that clay-court event, and with some crushing score-lines:
Won 6-0, 6-0 v Conny Perrin
Won 6-1, 6-0 v Leonie Kung
Won 6-3, 5-7, 10-3 v Jil Belen Teichmann
Semi Final: Won 6-0, 6-4 v Simona Waltert
Final: Won 6-2, 6-2 v Viktorija Golubic
Those are some bruising score-lines and big margins of victory. Granted, the level of opposition wasn’t at the highest. But that Switzerland event was still competitive. And confident straight-sets victories over fellow 19-year-olds Kung and Waltert shows how far ahead Swiatek is of many of her teenage peers right now.
The fact that last week’s impressive performances all came on clay is significant, too…
Swiatek’s career-to-date match win-loss form on clay since turning pro now reads won 61 lost 10. That’s a striking win rate of 86%.
Iga for success at 80/1…
There may be no official tournaments for Iga to compete in just yet, but the signs are good for this Polish teenager in the months and years ahead.
In terms of this summer, the WTA Tour is due to resume on clay in Palermo, Italy on 3rd August. And the French Open 2020 at Roland Garros is currently rescheduled for a 27th September start…
I’ve been impressed by Swiatek every time I’ve seen her play. She has the physical power. And she looks to have the tough mentality and fighting instincts needed to cut it at the top level of the game, too.
At the Australian Open in January, the teenager reached the 4th round – one match off the quarter finals – and was only edged out by the more experienced Anett Kontaveit, in a 6-7, 7-5, 7-5 nail-biter.
We can expect more to come from Iga Swiatek, both on the main WTA Tour, and in the annual Grand Slam events…
Swiatek also made the 4th round at the French Open last year, only stopped by 2018 French Open winner and current World No.2, Simona Halep. This Polish teenager appears to have a taste for the bigtime.
On court, Iga has a confidence and flow to her game that suggests she will prove to be the real deal as her career progresses. Swiatek has already broken into the top 50 in the world rankings (currently at World No.49).
Not turning 20 until the end of May next year, Iga looks well set up to move much higher in the future – be that later in 2020, or beyond…
Already this season we’ve seen one of our One to Watch in 2020 players, Sofia Kenin, lift the Australian Open at odds of 50/1. Kenin is 21 years old, and up to No.4 in the world.
Swiatek’s coach Piotr Sierzputowski reckons his young charge could be making similar waves by the time she hits 21...
“She is an achiever. She is a person who is really hungry to go farther and farther. If she is going to stay focused and consistent with what she is doing she can go much higher than she is already, because of that hunger…
I’m not going to say that I’m dreaming—I know that Iga can win Grand Slams. I don’t know when. In my plan in two three years she will achieve the top level of her abilities. I think she will be mature enough.”
Make no mistake, Iga Swiatek is one to watch.
Grand Slam markets all over the shop…
With the 2020 season on hold, and any dates on the tennis calendar subject to change depending on the coronavirus situation, the bookies have been tentative in addressing their Outright Winner markets for the year’s two remaining Grand Slams.
As it stands, the US Open is due to begin in New York on 31st August. The Oddschecker website lists just three bookmakers currently offering a women’s Outright Winner market for the US Open 2020 – Skybet, 888 Sport and SportPesa.
The Betfair Exchange also has a US Open women’s market, although as I write, just £577 worth of bets have been matched (and Swiatek isn’t even on the Exchange list).
And even among the few firms that are getting involved in the US Open betting at this stage, there isn’t a general consensus on the prices…
For example, Swiatek is 25/1 for the US Open with Skybet, but 120/1 with 888 Sport. Fellow Ones to Watch regular, 20-year-old Dayana Yastremska is 20/1 for New York with Skybet, and 50/1 at 888 Sport.
Right now, it’s the clay-court ‘Slam that we’re most interested in…
Paris prices…
The women’s French Open 2020 market is looking much more solid, with established firms like Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes & Coral, Betfred, Betway, Boylesports and Sportingbet all also in the mix.
There are some interesting quirks and anomalies on the Roland Garros lists, though…
SportPesa and Vbet don’t seem to be paying much attention to the fact that Maria Sharapova and Dominika Cibulkova have officially retired from tennis…
A comeback is never off the cards, of course. But I wouldn’t be taking the 33/1 for Sharapova with SportPesa, or the 66/1 for Cibulkova with Vbet, for that matter. Cibulkova gave birth to her first child last month.
Elsewhere, the differences in price and opinion continue, too…
The top of the market is in agreement with former winner Simona Halep a general 9/2 (5.50) favourite, and reigning Paris champion Ashleigh Barty at 8/1 & 9/1. But further down the roster, there are plenty of cases of players at double the price (or half the price) with various bookies…
For example, former Roland Garros finalist Sloane Stephens is 40/1 with Betfred, Ladbrokes & Coral, but just 14/1 with Skybet and 16/1 with Boylesports.
The 16-year-old Cori Gauff is 33/1 with Betfred and Boylesports, but just 14/1 at Bet365.
Last year’s runner-up Vondrousova is 40/1 with Betfred, but half the price at Skybet at 20/1, and just 16/1 with Boylesports.
Another Ones to Watch name, 21-year-old Elena Rybakina, is as big as 66/1 with Betfred and as short as 20/1 with Bet365, Betway and Boyleports.
Get Swiatek in the book…
The last 13 women’s Grand Slam tournaments have seen 11 different winners. Eight of those have been players lifting a Major trophy for the first time…
In recent years, Ones to Watch youngsters including 2017 winner Jelena Ostapenko (100/1) and 2019 runner-up Marketa Vondrousova (40/1) have done very well at the French Open – at very attractive odds.
We should get Iga Swiatek in the book for this year’s delayed trip to Paris…
Betfred pop up time and time again with the top prices mentioned above for the French Open 2020. That includes Swiatek, available at a standout 80/1 Each Way. In general, the Polish youngster is 25/1. You can get 28/1 and 33/1, too.
With clay the best surface for this youngster right now, and the French Open planning to go ahead at the end of September (announcing last week that a limited number of spectators will be allowed in, too), getting Iga in the book at a nice price looks a good move.
Of course, take the eye-catching 80/1 if you can. But those other prices are plenty attractive enough for this promising teenager, too. Especially considering all the ifs, buts & maybes going on right now…
On that note, it’s worth noting that if Swiatek doesn’t make it to Paris, be it through injury, illness or a personal decision to not play there, Betfred’s rules for Outright tennis bets state that you’re stakes would be refunded:
“Non-runners: Stakes will be refunded on players or teams withdrawn prior to the start of an event.”
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner pick – Each Way
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
There are more exhibition events and matches taking place this week. As ever, I’ll be in touch with any players & prices that catch the eye.
Enjoy the tennis,
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson