Tennis Betting Advice - August 2022
US Open: Day 2 - including a 1,000/1 teenager...
Tuesday 30th August 2022
Welcome to Day 2 of your daily US Open service. Play starts at 4pm, UK time…
And the carnage begins…
Everyone agrees – this year’s US Open is wide-open…
The tournament arrived with a bang on Monday, with three monumental shocks on the first day.
In the women’s, 7th seed Simona Halep, who was one of the 8/1 favourites for the title, was dumped out by 20-year-old world no.124, Daria Snigur. The Ukrainian youngster was 9/1 in the Match Winner betting. Until yesterday, Snigur had never won a tour-level match.
Then, in the men’s, another big name fell – with 4th seed Stefanos Tsitsipas nursing his arm in a bruising 6-0, 6-1, 3-6, 7-5 defeat to world no.94 Daniel Elahi Galan. That match upset was 12/1.
Around the same time as Tsitsipas was packing-up his bag, our man Taylor Fritz was also on the end of huge 12/1 upset. The American no.1 and 10th seed fell at the hands of compatriot and fellow 24-year-old, Brandon Holt – a player ranked no.303 in the world.
Holt is the son of tennis legend Tracy Austin, who remains to this day the youngest ever US Open champion, winning the title age 16 in 1979. Teenagers also stole the show at the US Open last summer – and there are plenty of teens in action here in the women’s 2022 draw, too. See below.
We’re always going to get some collateral damage along the way with our Ones to Watch selections. It’s never nice to see tournament bets go down in the very 1st round (even more so when you’re up ‘til 3am to see it happen…). However, it’s the nature of the beast. After losing a couple of our Outright Winner picks yesterday, this morning is a good time to outline our betting mantra, especially if you’re new to the service and this is your first tournament with me:
Elsewhere on Day 1, our other man in the top half of the draw, Casper Ruud, won in straight sets, 3-0. And with Tsitsipas and Fritz now gone from this section, Casper’s price has been trimmed overnight to 40/1 at best (Skybet, Sporting Index Fixed Odds), and 33/1 with Boylesports and Bet365, with most other firms at 28s and 25s. We got on the 23-year-old Norwegian before play began at top prices of 66/1 and 50/1, noting Ruud’s 71% match win-rate on hard courts since the start of last season.
Three of our women’s Each Way picks progressed through to the 2nd round yesterday, with Veronika Kudermetova, Liudmila Samsonova, and Beatriz Haddad Maia all winning in straight sets, 2-0. Haddad Maia won by the biggest scoreboard margin possible, dishing out a 6-0, 6-0 ‘double bagel’ to Ana Konjuh.
More big shocks to come today?
One match in particular catches my eye today in terms of a big price on offer for the underdog. In the men’s 1st round, Laslo Djere could be underrated at 7/1 against Andrey Rublev.
Rublev is the 9th seed here and a two-time US Open quarter-finalist. However, the 24-year-old Russian has looked a bit uncomfortable in recent months, and certainly doesn’t seem happy being a Russian in the media spotlight right now.
Andrey is a sensitive soul, and often hard on himself when things don’t go to plan on the court. He’s been known to smash his racket against himself, drawing blood on more than one occasion.
The head-to-head v Djere is 2-1 to the higher-ranked man, but all three meetings were on clay, and two of them were back in 2015 & 2016 on the lower-tier ATP Challenger Tour.
I’d say the Serbian world no.64 has a chance of springing a surprise here…
Some bookies have a ‘Win a Set’ market available (Boylesports and Bet365, for example). With the underdog priced at 6/4 (2.5) and 5/4 (2.25) with those firms, respectively.
For bigger odds, I like these two options: the 7/1 – 6/1 Match Winner price for the upset, and odds of 4/1 – 3/1 for Djere to start well and steal the 1st Set.
Teenagers on the radar…
Back to the youngsters now, and four of the names in action on Day 2 are in my notes as teenagers to keep an eye out for in the women’s event…
Linda Fruhvirtova is a player we’ve already mentioned a few times in the last couple of seasons – and she’s still just 17 years of age, and doesn’t turn 18 until next May. The Czech world no.167 came through US Open Qualifying with three wins last weekend. Remember – last year in New York, Emma Raducanu came though qualifying, and went on to make history and win the whole thing. Fruhvirtova is priced as the favourite to beat 20-year-old Xinyu Wang today.
Linda Noskova is another 17-year-old ‘Linda’ from the Czech Republic. The world no.109 turns 18 in November. Noskova also came through the qualifying rounds with flying colours last week; just like Raducanu last year, she won all three matches without dropping a set. A tough 1st round match is in store for the teenager today though, with Noskova taking on yet another Czech, 24-year-old world no.41 Marie Bouzkova. They met for the first time on tour earlier this season, with Bouzkova winning 2-0 on hard courts in Prague.
Clara Tauson featured in our start-of-season Ones to Watch in 2022 Report. After winning her first couple of WTA titles in 2021, the 19-year-old Dane, currently ranked no.57, is yet to do better than a quarter final at any level this year, with injuries slowing her progress. She’s got a tough 1st round against world no.10, multiple Grand Slam winner and former no.1 Garbine Muguruza today. The bookies make that match 50-50.
Qinwen Zheng is another upcoming youngster we’ve been keeping tabs on this season. Along with our big-odds US Open pick Liudmila Samsonova, Zheng was one of the few players to take a set off world no.1 Iga Swiatek during the Pole’s dominant 37-match winning streak earlier this season. The Chinese 19-year-old, ranked at a career-high no.39 right now, is also drawn in an it-could-go-either-way 1st-round match today, taking on former French Open champ Jelena Ostapenko.
Playing the BIG prices…
In the Outright Winner betting – before a ball is hit today – the likes of Fruhvirtova, Noskova and Tauson are all in with the 100/1+ outsiders. With Qinwen Zheng a best price of 66/1.
From the players mentioned there – and considering they are all ranked in the top half of the draw, with Fruhvirtova, Tauson & Zheng all in the 1st Quarter which also contains the overall favourite Switakek. I have to wheel out my sensible statement: we can’t back them all…
Two I do like however, with the early rounds of the draw and some massive prices in mind, are Fruhvirtova as a big-odds teenager to get behind – as big as 1,000/1 and 600/1 as I write. And at 100/1+, 24-year-old Bouzkova is a talented Czech who has threatened to do something special at a Grand Slam before. Marie reached the Wimbledon quarter finals last month, and followed up that form by winning a maiden WTA title, on hard courts in Prague.
Ones to Watch picks – US Open:
Laslo Djere v Andrey Rublev (men’s match, approx. 5.30pm):
Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
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Enjoy the tennis…