Tennis Betting Advice - August 2022

US Open: Day 1 picks - including a 66/1 outsider...

Monday 29th August 2022

Welcome to Day 1 of your daily US Open service. Play starts at 4pm, UK time…

We’re looking at what is genuinely one of the most ‘open’ US Open tournaments for many a year – in both the men’s and women’s events…

Remarkably, four of the last eight women’s Grand Slams have been won by a 100/1 shot (or bigger). And in the men’s, the US Open 2022 goes ahead without one of the sport’s biggest names, Novak Djokovic, who was ineligible for entry to the United States. While world no.2 Alexander Zverev is absent through injury. Read more about the case for a 100/1 upset in last week’s analysis.

It’s all to play for…

As ever, our Ones to Watch mantra is clear: we back appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices. That outsider approach means we go for big prices, and won’t win every time. But when the Big One lands, it’s all worth it – and then some…

We’ll kick things off today with our men’s Outright Winner selections…

Outright Winner picks – MEN:

At the start of August, we set out our plan to follow Hubert Hurkacz in the 2022 US Open Series. The Pole reached the ATP Montreal final at 33/1 Each Way. And we’ve got him in the book at 50/1 for the US Open itself (now 40/1). Read more about our Big Apple bet on Hubi here.

That Each Way payout in Montreal was one of a total of nine place payouts we’ve had to settle for this season. So far in 2022, we’ve seen 10 of our tournament Outright Winner picks reach finals. Half-the-odds Each Way payouts for reaching a final are not to be sniffed at, especially at the prices we go for. Our runner-up roster this year is made up of players backed at: 66/1, 33/1, 30/1, 22/1, 40/1, 40/1, 20/1, 33/1, and most recently, 12/1 shot Daria Saville at WTA Granby just last week.

Of course, what we’re really looking for though, is to land a Big One…

From those 10 finalists, the one that’s gone all the way and lifted the trophy for us so far in this campaign was the biggest price of the lot, Taylor Fritz at 100/1 at Indian Wells in March. Ones to Watch is all about getting on improving players, on their way up, at the biggest prices. We got great odds for Taylor at Indian Wells.

In the day-one betting for this week’s wide-open US Open, the American no.1 goes off at 22/1 and 20/1. We’re already well in credit from Fritz this year. Considering he’s up to a career-high ranking of no.12 in the world, and will go into his home Grand Slam more confident and motivated than ever, I’m happy to play Taylor at those odds here. He nearly came through at Wimbledon at massive prices this summer. Age 24, he’s getting closer to making his mark at Grand Slam level.

  • Taylor Fritz 2022 form at USA hard-court tournaments (most recent first): Quarter Final, Last 16, Last 16, Final (Won), Quarter Final 

Hurkacz has landed in the bottom half of the men’s draw (3rd Quarter), avoiding world no.1 and 5/2 (3.5) tournament favourite Daniil Medvedev until the final. Our other early-bird men’s pick Cameron Norrie, who went in the book at top prices of 150/1 & 100/1 back in February (now 40/1 and 33/1), is also in this half (4th Quarter). You can catch up on my original article on Cam here.

Fritz is in the top half of the field (2nd Quarter). And looking at the prices, there’s one other player I want to be on in this section of the draw…

At odds of 66/1 and 50/1, Casper Ruud looks a dark horse. As we’ve discussed before, the lazy-journalism angle is to pigeonhole the Norwegian as a ‘clay court specialist.’ That’s really not the case. Casper is a model young professional, and has his sights on becoming one of the top players in the world, full stop. Coming runner-up on clay to Rafael Nadal in the French Open final this year might just be the first step in the Grand Slam arc that was taken by Dominic Thiem a couple of years back. The Austrian was also denied by Rafa in the championship match at Roland Garros (twice) – before going on to win the US Open on hard courts in 2020.

Make no mistake, Ruud can play on fast hard courts. While he has the smarts to construct long points and stay in gruelling rallies – traits traditionally associated with the slower clay courts. The 23-year-old also has the serve and big forehand to keep points short, play with pace and power, and reel off the one-two punch that we can expect to see a lot at this tournament. ‘Two-strike tennis,’ they call it.

We were on Casper earlier this year at the Miami Open, an ATP 1000 ‘Masters’ event that is one of the biggest hard-court events outside of the US Open. Ruud went off at 40/1 that week. We got on him at 22/1 during the tournament, and he went on to reach the final, finishing runner-up for an Each Way payout. Here in New York this fortnight, odds of 50/1+ could prove a bit too big for a player ranked no.7 in the world…

As outlined when we backed eventual Wimbledon runner-up Ons Jabeur at big prices earlier this year, a match win-rate in the region of 70% on a particular playing surface is something to take serious notice of:

  • Casper Ruud hard-court match win-loss record since the start of 2021: won 27 lost 11 = 71% win-rate

With Hurkacz and Norrie already in the book (back them today if you haven’t already). We’re adding Fritz and Ruud to our men’s US Open Outright Winner picks – those two both play in the 1st round today.

Now for the women’s event…

Outright Winner picks – WOMEN:

Last week we swooped as soon as the draw was made, adding a pair of 100/1 Russians to our women’s US Open 2022 list. Those top prices were quickly snapped up, but world no.18 Veronika Kudermetova can still be backed at an appealing 80/1 (Betfred) and 66/1 (William Hill, Skybet, Betway), and 50/1 in general.

Our second Russian selection, Liudmila Samsonova arrives in New York in blistering form. The 23-year-old has now won 10 matches in a row, all on American hard courts. Having lifted the WTA Washington title in early August, followed by winning WTA Cleveland last week. That most recent trophy win propelled Samsonova another 10 places up the rankings, to no.35. She didn’t drop a set across five matches in Cleveland last week, and served brilliantly throughout. We got 50/1+ before the weekend. Samsonova is now trading at 33/1 and 28/1 in general. The rush has come, on the back of that current form. If you’re not on this exciting youngster yet, then I’d say get the best price you can today. Sporting Index Fixed Odds are 45/1. BetVictor, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook are 35/1.

Our two earlier, ante-post picks for the women’s US Open 2022 were Dayana Yastremka (100/1) and Amanda Anismova (33/1). Both have drifted in the betting as we approach the start of play. With Ukrainian 22-year-old Yastremka on a six-match losing streak and now as big as 500/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, having been handed a tough 1st-round draw against Madison Keys. Anisimova injured her ankle recently, prompting the bookies to now nudge the 20-year-old American out to 50/1 and 40/1, with the 50s available with Skybet, Betfred and Boylesports. If one or both of our players do spring into form here at Flushing Meadows – and you really never know what’s going to happen in the women’s game right now – then those odds could end up looking generous.

Last year’s US Open produced a pair of teenage, 100/1+ finalists, with Emma Raducanu beating Leylah Fernandez. Both are much shorter in the betting this time, with little in the way of recent form (or fitness) to suggest a repeat in on the cards. Raducanu is 33/1 at best (Boylesports), and 25/1 and 22/1 in general. Fernandez is 40/1 and 33/1. I think we’ll be better off staying forward-thinking, and looking to back the next up-and-coming youngsters at big odds…

Any US Open women’s ‘shortlist’ this year could end up actually being a ‘long’ list. It really is that wide open. I’ve got some names that I’m looking out for, especially in terms of youth. More on those tomorrow, when the top half of the women’s draw gets underway. Monday’s schedule sees the bottom side of the drawsheet getting the ball rolling, and there’s one in-form player here that I want to get behind at attractive odds…

Beatriz Haddad Maia has undoubtedly been one of the breakthrough stories of the season. The 26-year-old Brazilian started the year ranked at no.82. Beatriz is now up to a startling no.15 in the world. With that big leap achieved via a staggering run of form, including a stack of finals this summer…

The signs of progress began with a semi-final appearance at WTA Monterrey on hard courts at the start of March. Followed by a lower-grade WTA title at Saint-Malo on clay in early May – which was quickly followed by another, in Paris. Haddad Maia then flew into form on grass in the UK, winning a maiden WTA title in Nottingham, and then another the week after in Birmingham. A semi final at Eastbourne almost completed the English hat-trick, before Beatriz ran out of steam and went down in the very 1st round at Wimbledon. She’s bounced back extremely well since that setback, reaching a first WTA 1000 final at Toronto this month in the US Open build-up. That hard-court run saw the Brazilian take out a trio of Grand Slam finalists – Leylah Fernandez, Iga Swiatek, and Karolina Pliskova. Before pushing another top name, former world no.1 Simona Halep, all the way to three sets in the final (runner-up).

Left-handed and standing 6’0” tall, and with a great fighting spirit to match her dynamic game, Haddad Maia can cause a lot of opponents a lot of problems. With 2022 being the season of her life so far, odds of 33/1 and 28/1 appeal in this draw – it feels like we’re at a stage in women’s tennis right now where it would almost be a surprise if there wasn’t another new name on the US Open trophy at the end of the fortnight.

Monday – match bets…

There are 128 players in the men’s tournament, and 128 in the women’s – and about half of them get underway today on the Day 1 schedule. That’s a lot of players and potential betting opportunities.

Two that jump out for me as slight underdogs in the Match Winner betting are French teenager Diane Parry to triumph in the battle of the youngsters, against Chinese 21-year-old Xiyu Wang. The rankings match-up is no.74 v no.75, and with Parry making a nice run to a maiden WTA Tour semi final in Granby last week (she was 40/1 in the tournament market there), Diane is the pick for me at Evens+ (2.0+).

Magdalena Frech has won both previous meetings with Rebecca Marino. The Canadian has a big serve and is priced as the favourite today, but Marino is prone to nerves in my opinion. Frech came out on top v Marino 2-0 in 2021, and 2-1 in the States at Indian Wells earlier this year. Both victories were on hard courts. Again, the rankings are close, no.103 plays no.106. I’m with Frech at odds-against, 6/5 (2.2) and the like.

Those two matches are due on court around 7pm or after, UK time.


Ones to Watch picks – US Open:

Men’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

Already in the book: Hubert Hurkacz and Cameron Norrie

  • Taylor Fritz @ 22/1 Skybet, Betway, 20/1 Bet365, William Hill, 888 Sport, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, Betfred, Boylesports, Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 10Bet, NetBet, SportNation, LiveScoreBet 
  • Casper Ruud @ 66/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, 10Bet, NetBet, SportNation, LiveScoreBet, 50/1 Bet365, 888 Sport, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, Boylesports

Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

Already in the book: Veronika Kudermetova, Liudmila Samsonova, Dayana Yastremska, Amanda Anisimova

  • Beatriz Haddad Maia @ 33/1 Skybet, Unibet, Boylesports, 28/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Betway, Sporting Index Fixed Odds, Ladbrokes, Coral 

Match Winner – Women’s:

  • Diane Parry to beat Xiyu Wang @ 6/5 (2.2) William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet, 23/20 (2.15) Betway, 11/10 (2.1) Skybet, BetVictor, Evens (2.0) Bet365, Boylesports 
  • Magdalena Frech to beat Rebecca Marino @ 13/10 (2.3) William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet, 5/4 (2.25) BetVictor, 6/5 (2.2) Bet365, Skybet, Betway, 11/10 (2.1) Boylesports



Want to get in touch? You can email me throughout the tournament at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch