Tennis Betting Advice - August 2022
US Open - a pair of 100/1 Russians...
Thursday 25th August 2022
Good evening (or good morning, if you’re seeing this first thing on Friday). Thursday has been a busy day for me, packed full of US Open prep. I’ve got the tennis on the big screen in front of me. As I write (11pm), Marta Kostyuk is taking on Rebecca Marino. The winner of that one will face our WTA Granby pick, Daria Saville, in Friday’s semi final. A promising tournament position for us there in Canada, then. And lots to look forward to in the USA over the coming fortnight…
Our attention will soon turn fully to New York, of course. With the US Open starting on Monday afternoon. I’ll have your Day 1 email with you at 12 noon on Monday. The draws were made today…
The headline news is that Novak Djokovic won’t be competing. My first action was to scamper on to a few bookies’ sites, and see how the revised men’s Outright Winner market was looking. Good news. Our early-bird boys Cameron Norrie and Hubert Hurkacz can still be backed at the same prices as the day before the Djokovic news broke, 40/1 or thereabouts (with Bet365 and Skybet still 50/1 for Hurkacz). Read about all four of our ante-post US Open 2022 picks here.
Regarding the women’s draw, the bottom half of the 128-player field looks the best place to be in terms of avoiding a batch of big names. As discussed in our Case for a 100/1 Upset, pretty much anything can happen in women’s Grand Slams these days. I certainly want to be dabbling in the triple-figure Outright Winner prices when the player and potential route-to-the-final fits. And having consulted the odds this evening, in the handful or so hours since the draw has been made, I’m eager to back two women that have been in my notes - with the prices still the same as before the names came out of the hat. Again, that’s good news for us. Top prices of 100/1 and 80/1 really stand out. With 50/1+ plenty acceptable for both of these Russian outsiders.
Oddschecker seems to be having a bit of glitch in not listing many bookmakers for these two names. I’ve therefore gone solo (as I often do), opening as many browser windows as my computer can handle, and manually clicking & scrolling through the Women’s US Open Outright Winner lists, bookie by bookie. I’ve included the top pickings below. The two names in my sights:
VERONIKA KUDERMETOVA
The 25-year-old Kudermetova is having a stealthily good season. We’ve backed her before at big odds. She has the classic Russian game in terms of hitting the ball hard and true. She also has an above-average serve when on song. And plenty of grit and determination to knuckle down for a three-set battle. Maybe Veronika’s got the knack of being a ‘lucky’ player, too… she’s reached three finals on the WTA Tour this season; on each occasion, Kudermetova benefitted from an opponent withdrawing and giving her a ‘bye’ through to the next round. Including Naomi Osaka and Marketa Vondrousova both handing a free pass through to the final, via semi-final withdrawals. I’m not taking anything away from the world no.18 though, who is sitting at a career-high ranking. She got no gifts when making the French Open quarter finals this season. And since then, Veronika has made two more semi finals on the tour, including one at San Jose on hard courts earlier this month. At odds of 100/1 and 80/1 through to 50/1, Kudermetova is a dark horse in this draw.
LIUDMILA SAMSONOVA
At 23 years of age, Samsonova is starting to shake off some of the rawness of youth, and really lock-in to become a consistent, top-level player. Again, we’re dealing with a game-faced Russian who likes to thunder the ball across the net, flat and fast. The world no.45 possesses one of the best serves on the tour right now, and I reckon she’s getting better. So far this week at WTA Cleveland, where she is through to the semi finals on Friday, Samsonova has won all three matches in straight sets, 2-0 - and has only lost one service game in total. Impressive stuff. Before Cleveland this week, the upcoming youngster won WTA Washington on hard courts last time out, meaning Liudmila is currently on a run of eight successive match victories. Yet still it seems that no-one is really talking about her chances for New York. That’s okay with us - we’ll take the 100/1 and 80/1 top prices while we can, with 50/1+ also plenty acceptable for this promising and dangerous young player.
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Ones to Watch picks:
US Open 2022 - Women’s
Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
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The US Open starts on Monday. Your Day 1 email and bet advice will be with you at 12 noon that day.
You can email me: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson