Tennis Betting Advice - December 2019

A Game of Finals…

Thursday 19th December 2019 

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Measuring success…
  • One in five picks make the semi finals…
  • Coming up – your NEW Ones to Watch in 2020 report…

One in five picks make the semi finals…

The new season starts on the first weekend of January. We don’t have long to wait until tennis talk is back on the agenda.

With the end of the calendar year approaching, I’ve done my annual number crunching…

As reported in my last email, the prices of tournament finalists continue to be on the side of the underdogs and outsiders. View the figures here. Fully franking our Ones to Watch approach of hunting out players at attractive, Each Way prices in the Outright Winner markets.

If you back underdogs and outsiders, as we do, then you won’t be getting a player into a final every week and certainly not at every Grand Slam. It’s not possible. There is no crystal ball. One way I find useful to measure ‘success’ (or not) is to track the tournament performance of our Ones to Watch picks…

By tournament performance I mean, did our player have a good run in the event? Did he or she outperform their original Outright Winner odds? Did they get to the quarter final, semi final or final?

Last season we got 41% of our tournament picks into quarter finals or beyond, 19% into semi finals or better and 10% into finals.

This season we did around the same…

From 128 picks in the 2019 season:

  • 47 of our players made the Quarter Finals or better (37%)
  • 26 made the Semi Finals or better (20%)
  • 10 made the Finals (8%), with 3 winning and 7 finishing as runner-up

A Game of Finals…

One in five of our picks are reaching the semi finals. That’s a very positive stat. Betting Each Way, a player that wins a semi final means a place payout (usually at 1/2 the odds), as well of course as a shot at the full Outright win.

As with 2018, seven of our 10 finalists had to settle for the runner-up trophy. Back in 2017, we had a 100% success rate in finals with six out of six players lifting the trophy.

When things go our way on the big day – like they did with 30/1 pick Bianca Andreescu winning in Indian Wells this year, beating the match favourite Angelique Kerber in the final – then we get the full rewards of our Ones to Watch approach.

Here are the 10 finalists we had this year:

January, ATP Brisbane:
Daniil Medvedev @ 14/1 – EACH WAY PAYOUT (runner-up)

January, WTA Hua Hin:
Ajla Tomljanovic @ 14/1 – EACH WAY PAYOUT (runner-up)

February, ATP Montpellier:
Pierres-Hugues Herbert @ 25/1 – EACH WAY PAYOUT (runner-up)

March, WTA Indian Wells:
Bianca Andreescu @ 30/1 – WON

April, ATP Barcelona:
Daniil Medvedev @ 20/1 – EACH WAY PAYOUT (runner-up)

May/ June, French Open - Women's:
Marketa Vondrousova @ 40/1 – EACH WAY PAYOUT (runner-up)

June, WTA Mallorca:
Belinda Bencic @ 9/1 – EACH WAY PAYOUT (runner-up)

July, ATP Bastad:
Juan Ignacio Londero @ 20/1 – EACH WAY PAYOUT (runner-up)

September, ATP Zhuhai:
Alex De Minaur @ 16/1 – WON

November, ATP Finals - London:
Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 18/1 – WON

One or two more winning days in the finals, and I’d be a lot happier, of course. But what I am happy about are those quarter final & semi final strike-rates. We’re getting players into good positions at good prices. And that’s what our weekly Ones to Watch picks are all about.

Coming up – your NEW Ones to Watch in 2020 report…

The quest continues. I’m excited for the new season. We’ll be going after plenty of ‘big ones’ again in 2020.

There’s lots to look forward to. I’ll be getting the ball rolling with your annual Ones to Watch in 2020 player list. Look out for that special report coming soon. I’ll be playing Santa and delivering it to you (by email) on Christmas Eve, Tuesday 24th December. See you then…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch