Tennis Betting Advice - February 2021

Australian Open: Women's Final - Brady v Osaka...

Friday 19th February 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Australian Open – Day 13…
  • Women’s Final – Brady v Osaka…
  • Coming up – 4 tournaments next week…

Welcome to Day 13 of your Ones to Watch Australian Open daily service…

Daniil Medvedev put Stefanos Tsitsipas to the sword this morning. The 25-year-old Russian moves a step closer to a first Grand Slam title. He’ll face Novak Djokovic in the final on Sunday.

Medvedev was a dominant straight-sets victor, beating Tsitsipas 6-4, 6-3, 7-5. Daniil also bossed the Ace count, 17-3.

It was close on the Double Faults, though, 2-3. Just one Medvedev double away from landing my highlighted 11/2 (6.5) selection for the Double Faults ‘Tie.’ The serving stats and markets will stay on our radar (see below).

‘Close’ was also the word for our 33/1 Outright Winner pick at this week’s WTA Phillip Island Trophy event here in Melbourne…

Marie Bouzkova won the first set in the final v the match-day favourite Daria Kasatkina, but faded as the match went on. Kasatkina came back strongly to take the title, 4-6, 6-2, 6-2.

Each Way terms of 1/2 the odds mean a handy payout on Bouzkova as runner-up. And after 16/1 Elise Mertens won the WTA Gippsland Trophy at the start of the month, my own overall Melbourne business sits at just above break-even.

  • Ones to Watch betting is a Big Picture business. If you missed it earlier in the week, we’ve added Karolina Muchova as a 50/1 early-bird pick for Wimbledon this summer

Four tournaments next week…

We’re not done Down Under yet, either. As well the Australian Open finals this weekend, we have the WTA Adelaide event starting from Sunday.

And the men’s ATP Tour resumes from Monday, too. With no fewer than three tournaments for us to look at, in Cordoba (clay courts), Singapore (indoor hard), and Montpellier (indoor hard). Check out the February calendar here.

  • As soon at the markets are up over the weekend, I’ll be in touch with my Outright Winner preview and Ones to Watch player picks for those four ATP & WTA tournaments 

Women’s Final – Brady v Osaka…

If this is anything like their semi final at the US Open last year, then Jennifer Brady v Naomi Osaka will be a cracking match this Saturday morning (8.30am UK time).

That New York encounter saw Osaka prevail 7-6, 3-6, 6-3.

Naomi Osaka is the favourite, being higher-ranked, and having been here and done it before. The reigning 2020 US Open champion coming into this one, Naomi previously did the US Open/ Australian Open double in 2018/ 2019.

The World No.3 is three from three in Grand Slam finals. Clearly, this is a big ask for the underdog Jennifer Brady, who is ranked No.23. But the American has been working towards this moment, and last year’s US Open semi-final experience can stand her in good stead here…

The betting has Osaka as a very strong favourite, at 1/5 (1.2). With Brady at 7/2 (4.5).

You’ll not be surprised to learn that I’m interested in the Set Betting market. Osaka’s last two Grand Slam finals have gone to the full three sets, with Naomi taking the trophy each time. The 2-1 score was also the outcome in that New York clash last season.

Another 2-1 win for Osaka is 10/3 (4.33) and 3/1 (4.0). But I’m not ruling out Brady claiming her big moment. Osaka had to save match points in the 4th round against Garbine Muguruza. It could get very tight…

If the outsider does do it, it’ll likely require a three-set marathon effort. At odds of 9/1 (10.0) and 17/2 (9.5), Brady 2-1 is my underdog pick for the final.

Staying on the bigger side of the prices, I also like Brady for both the Most Aces, and Most Double Faults, at 2/1 (3.0) for each…

Osaka has hit the more Aces and Double Faults at this tournament. But the head-to-head could be crucial here. In their two meetings at Grand Slam and WTA Tour level, Brady has won the Aces both times, 10-9 in New York, and 9-3 in Charleston. And Jen also served the most Double Faults on both occasions, 2-1 and 5-0.

If nerves do get to Brady on her Grand Slam final debut, then the Double Faults could show up. Conversely, if she does get in the zone for the win of her life, then a stack of Aces may well be part of it.

Osaka is favourite fir the Most Double Faults, as short as 1/3 (1.33) with Paddy Power. But it’s well worth noting that Osaka hasn’t landed that bet in any of her three previous Grand Slam finals.

Ones to Watch:

Jennifer Brady v Naomi Osaka

Saturday, 8.30am

  • Set Betting: Brady to win 2-1 is 9/1 (10.0) with Bet365, 17/2 (9.5) Ladbrokes, Coral, Sportingbet, Bwin 
  • Most Aces: Brady is 2/1 (3.0) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Sportingbet, Bwin, 7/4 (2.75) William Hill, Bet Victor, 6/4 (2.5) Skybet, Bet365
  • Most Double Faults: Brady is 2/1 (3.0) with Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Sportingbet, Bwin

I’ll be back on Saturday & Sunday, with your Australian Open email for the men’s final, and a first look at the draws and prices for next week’s ATP & WTA events.

Want to get in touch? You can message me direct at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch