Tennis Betting Advice - February 2023
WTA Merida - Ones to Watch at 18/1 and 16/1...
Tuesday 21st February 2023
Good morning. After yesterday’s Outright Winner preview for ATP Marseille, today we’re heading to Mexico on the women’s tour.
Before we start, a note on those men’s picks in Marseille. Today’s play in France starts at 11.30am UK time. If you’re not on yet, our three Each Way selections can still be backed as I write this morning, at the following best prices:
Marc-Andrea Huesler 33/1 Ladbrokes, Coral
Maxime Cressy 12/1 William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports
Arthur Fils 28/1 Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Beway, Boylesports
Ones to Watch in Merida…
Off to Mexico now, for the inaugural WTA Merida event, played on outdoor hard courts.
I’ve got two players in mind at around the 16/1 bracket here. Both have done well in this part of the world before…
Camila Osorio @ 18/1 Bet365
As mentioned in yesterday’s email, we were on Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (to use her full name) at 33/1 for WTA Monterrey in Mexico on hard courts, twelve months ago. The young Colombian got all the way to the final, and had five match points for the title. Eventually, we had to settle for the Each Way payout as runner-up. It was a bit of a heartbreaker.
The 21-year-old often plays with some part of her leg taped up, so don’t be surprised to see that if you tune in to watch any of her matches. Camila Osorio is a fighter…
As we’ve discussed recently, Camila often gets into long battles on court. I could see another one tonight (1am UK time), when she’ll go off as the underdog against 5/1 WTA Merida title favourite and recent surprise Australian Open semi-finalist, Magda Linette.
Osorio won her only previous meeting with Linette, by that classic WTA ‘long one’ scoreline, two sets to one (2-1). With this being Linette’s first match back on tour since that big run Down Under in January, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some rust or nerves from the 31-year-old Pole, who will now carry a bit of a target on her back with her new career-best ranking of no.21 in the world. Underdog Osorio is ranked no.61 (and has been as high as no.33).
The first five of yesterday’s matches in Merida all went to the full three sets. Including a couple of three-hour-plus encounters - which always count as epic, be it on the men’s or women’s tours. This match between Linette and Osorio will be later in the day than those five Monday three-setters, but even so, there could be something sluggish about the courts and playing conditions here. Over 20.5 Games is the recommended match bet, with the bookies listed below (Over 21.5 available with other firms).
In the tournament Outright Winner market, I like Camila Osorio at 18/1 and 16/1. Granted, she has to get past the tournament fav in the very 1st round. But I don’t like that 5/1 price for Linette. It’s short.
The South American player has done well in events like this before. Camila’s one WTA title to date came on home soil (well, clay) in Bogota, Colombia in 2021 - where she also reached the semi finals last season. And along with that Monterrey final in Mexico a year ago, the youngster has also won three lower-tier ITF titles across Ecuador and Colombia.
On the 2023 form, there was no shame in losing to world no.1 Iga Swiatek at the Australian Open. And after that 2nd round defeat in Melbourne, Camila bounced back with a semi-final run in Lyon at the start of February.
World no.54 Elisabetta Cocciaretto has already played this week, blazing through her 1st-round match with a dominant 6-0, 6-3 win over world no.85 Viktorija Golubic. The 22-year-old Italian has started the year well, reaching her first ever WTA final. That career-best result came on hard courts at Hobart, Australia. She appeals at 16/1 and 14/1 here in Merida.
Last season, Cocciaretto won three titles on the lower-tier ITF circuit, most recently at Tampico in Mexico at the back-end of last season. That October run on the Tampico hard courts saw Elisabetta prevail in what was a strong field for a lower-level event. That Mexican trophy run included victories over both Camila Osorio in the quarter final, and Madga Linette in the final.
All told then, Osorio and Cocciaretto stand out as potential contenders this week, both bringing some early 2023 tournament form - as well as a potentially significant track record in Mexico.
Ones to Watch picks:
WTA Merida - Merida Open Akron
Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Magda Linette v Camila Osorio:
Today’s play in Merida gets underway from 7pm, UK time. Bookies take down their Outright Winner markets during the matches (although the BetVictor site says 5pm today, and William Hill and Unibet both say 4pm. Don’t ask me why).
You can watch the tournament live on Amazon Prime Video.
If you want to get in touch, email me at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Enjoy the tennis…