Dallas update: Opelka in the Quarter Finals...

Friday 7th February 2025

This week’s 25/1 pick is now trading at 8/1…

I stayed up late to watch the tennis last night. It wasn’t a classic match, but it was satisfying to see our ATP Dallas Open pick Reilly Opelka claw himself back from the brink of defeat. Coming from a set down to beat Cameron Norrie, 4-6, 7-6, 6-4.

For the second match in a row on these Dallas indoor hard courts, the 6’11” American clubbed down 18 aces. If he can keep that up, Reilly will give himself a decent chance to stay competitive on the scoreboard with tournament favourite and reigning Dallas champion, Tommy Paul…

Opelka will face Paul in the Quarter Finals, live on Sky Sports Tennis (or the red button) in the very early hours of Saturday morning, UK time - should you happen to be a night-owl.

From odds of 25/1 and 22/1 Each Way at the start of the week when we placed our bets. Opelka is now 8/1 at best for the trophy. He’s the underdog going into tonight’s match. But Paul has needed a deciding set to win through each of his two matches so far this week, despite having gone off as a short favourite on both occasions…

We’ve already seen two of the short-price Dallas Open pre-tournament favourites come a cropper. With fellow Americans, Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton, both dumped out.

For what it’s worth, Opelka does hold a positive ATP head-to-head record against Tommy Paul - albeit from right back in 2018, when both were young men working their way up the ladder, on the lower-tier Challenger circuit. And that match was also played on indoor hard courts in the States.

While we look to Reilly Opelka to serve up a winning weekend. We can also very much look forward to next week’s tennis…

There are four tournaments on the schedule. Including a big WTA 1000 event in Doha. And the first clay-court tournament of the season, ATP Buenos Aires…

This time last year, that Argentinian event produced a surprise home winner - with Facundo Diaz Acosta taking the title at odds of 66/1, having never previously reached a Final on the main ATP Tour…

As one of our ever-optimistic Ones to Watch mottos goes: anything can happen…

P.S
I’m planning to be back in touch with your next big-odds Outright Winner advice on Monday. Sign up to our WhatsApp channel and we’ll send a message to your smartphone when the next email goes out. Follow Ones to Watch on WhatsApp here (and click to ‘enable notifications’).

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch