Tennis Betting Advice - February 2025
Ones to Watch in Dallas at 25/1 and 50/1...
Monday 3rd February 2025
After scaling the heights at the Australian Open last month, we were back to weekly tour business last week…
Our 22/1 pick Yunchaokete Bu played well for a couple of matches to reach the Quarter Finals indoors at ATP Montpellier, without even losing serve. Only to then be toppled in straight sets by 4/1 pre-tournament favourite Felix Auger-Aliassime, who went on to lift the trophy…
A reminder there that favourites are supposed to win - and often do…
But then again, the runner-up in Sunday’s Montpellier final was the unheralded Aleksandar Kovacevic, who came all the way through Qualifying to ride a six-match streak to his first ever ATP Final. A run that made the American close to a 100/1 surprise package in that tournament.
Here at Ones to Watch, in the Outright Winner markets for tennis tournaments: we back appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices. That’s our game. And we’re playing again this week…
Targeting the men’s Dallas Open in Texas, USA…
There are four tournaments on the calendar this week. But Dallas is the best fit for us time-wise, in terms of me getting the advice to you when the markets are available - and when there’s time to act before play begins (today’s day-one action starts from 6pm, UK time).
Dallas is also the event I most wanted to focus on from the off this week, as this indoor hard-court tournament presents us with a potentially lucrative mix of unsure favourites - and big-serving underdogs…
This year, ATP Dallas has been upgraded from a 250 to a 500-grade event. That means more money in the pot, more rankings points up for grabs - and more Top 10 players with the incentive and invitation to make the trip…
What’s more, the tournament has moved into a new venue in order to accommodate its growth and growing status. And going back a few years, between 2018 and 2020 this event was the New York Open - also played on fast, thudding, indoor hard-courts…
That last point is key. Because when this was New York, I remember watching the 6’11” Reilly Opelka win this title. And then here in the city of Dallas in 2022, Reilly and his giant, ace-yielding serve did it again - winning the Final by the attritional big-serving score-line of 7-6, 7-6 (and also by that double tiebreak score in the Semi Final).
So far in 2025, the tallest man currently on tour, Opelka is continuing his impressive comeback attempt after a long period out injured. The now 27-year-old reached the ATP Brisbane Final to start the season, taking out none other than Novak Djokovic along the way. And only beaten to the trophy by one of our Ones to Watch in 2025 Czech players, Jiri Lehecka.
That week in Brisbane, Reilly also took out one of his main new young rivals for the ‘ace machine’ tag this year, the 21-year-old Frenchman, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.
All good signs, as Opelka embarks on his Dallas quest this week - starting on Tuesday where he’s priced as the favourite to beat Alexander Shevchenko.
As a 1st Round opponent, Kazakhstan representative Shevchenko is currently higher-ranked than Opelka, but that really is largely due to the very long injury layoff suffered by the American. Reilly might be ranked no.145 right now - but he’s been as high as no.17 in the world before.
All four of Opelka’s ATP Tour titles have come in the USA (Houston, Dallas, Delray Beach, New York). And prior to those main-tour triumphs, Reilly cut his teeth with a pair of indoor hard-court titles on the lower-tier ATP Challenger circuit in the States in 2018.
Overall, indoor hard courts in North America are pretty much the best setting in which to back Opelka. The consistency of conditions indoors (no wind, etc) tend to help a big server - and this guy serves REALLY big.
Unsure favourites at short prices…
Even if we take into account the fact that the bump to 500-grade means this week’s ATP Dallas field boasts some strong, high-ranking names. For example, previous Ones to Watch American pals such as Taylor Fritz, reigning champion Tommy Paul, and likeable left-handed youngster Ben Shelton, are priced as the three outright favourites here…
With Fritz at 4/1 (5.0) at best, and shorter in general. Shelton at 11/2 (6.5). And Paul at 13/2 (7.5). We want bigger…
Likewise, another of our 2025 Czech prospects, Tomas Machac, is also in with the favourites at single figures. Despite being yet to win a title…
And while we’re at it, Fritz has never actually won indoors on the main tour. Neither has Shelton, or another big name in the field here - world no.5, Casper Ruud. And it’s the same for another home hope this week, Frances Tiafoe (Quarter Final on last two visits to Dallas).
Outsider opportunities…
With all that in mind, Opelka at 25/1 or 22/1 is my headline pick.
And with one eye on a bigger price and the case for potential over proven results (in terms of backing a youngster), last week’s selection Yunchaokete Bu has shown enough promise and professional aptitude for me to put him up at greater odds this week for a second bite of the cherry. With 50/1, 40/1 and 33/1 on offer for the 23-year-old Chinese outsider, who is ranked no.68 in the world - and will compete hard for every point here…
If you’re looking for omens, then I can tell you that another little–known Chinese player did very well at this very tournament in 2023… with Yibing Wu running out a 25/1 champion that week in Dallas, having never reached a senior ATP Tour Final before…
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Reilly Opelka @ 25/1 BetVictor, Boylesports, 22/1 Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway
Yunchaokete Bu @ 50/1 Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM & LiveScoreBet, 40/1 Bet365, Boylesports, Star Sports, 35/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 33/1 general
Play starts at 6pm, UK time (markets go down while matches are in play. If you miss the price this afternoon, look again on Tuesday morning).
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P.S
I’m also monitoring results, prices, and the early-rounds form in Rotterdam, Abu Dhabi, and Cluj-Napoca (Romania) this week…
Any picks for those tournaments may need to be sent to you at night, in order to access the markets before play begins in the morning…
If so, we’ll use our new WhatsApp channel to alert you if an email goes out. Follow Ones to Watch on WhatsApp here (and remember to enable notifications!).
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone