Tennis Betting Advice - January 2019

Australian Open: Flying the flag at 100/1…

Wednesday 16th January 2019

Australian Open - Bets of the Day

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Day Four – play starts at Midnight…
  • 66/1 and 100/1 outsiders…
  • Back the young guns tonight…

Late-night thrills…

The lamppost outside my window is in need of a new lightbulb. There wasn’t much moonlight. So last night it was just me, my IKEA table lamp and the blue-yellow glow of the tennis on TV…

I pulled an all-nighter. And despite my two match picks going down, staying awake through the small hours was worth it...

Night owls and tennis fans were treated to some scintillating displays from the youngsters. The eye-catching score-line was an emphatic 6-0, 6-2 win for 17-year-old Amanda Anisimova. More on her in a moment.

We saw the first genuine shocks, too. Including World No.6 Kevin Anderson dumped out by 4/1 (5.00) match underdog Frances Tiafoe. And World No.29 Donna Vekic knocked out by 7/2 (4.50) Australian outsider Kimberly Birrell, ranked No.240.

Ones to Watch update…

Karen Khachanov (28/1) and Aryna Sabalenka (12/1) both won in straight sets to book their place in the 3rd Round. Our two other Outright Winner picks, Borna Coric (50/1) and Elise Mertens (100/1) play in the 2nd Round tonight. I’m adding to those Each Way picks with two more big-price selections today – see below.

It’s been a good start to the year for the young & improving players in our Ones to Watch in 2019 report. Sabalenka and Alex De Minaur have already won titles this month, and Daniil Medvedev has reached a final, too…

As I write, nine of the 10 players on that list are through to either the 2nd or 3rd Round of the Australian Open. Including Tiafoe who beat Anderson last night, and De Minaur who plays Rafael Nadal in the next round.

There’s also the 17-year-old Anisimova, who will play our pick Sabalenka on Thursday night. Back in September, I highlighted the American teenager as One to Watch at 150/1. Anisimova is the youngest player in the Women’s Top 100. She won 6-0, 6-2 last night, and also in straight sets in the 1st Round.

There hasn’t been a teenage Grand Slam winner since 2006 (Maria Sharapova at the US Open), but the early signs are that that stat could change in 2019. If you want to guarantee you have a player in the 4th Round from the clash v Sabalenka and didn’t back Anisimova in September, she’s still available at 150/1 and 100/1 today – and Skybet have stuck their neck out at 200/1.

66/1 and 100/1 outsiders…

Two players who really caught the eye for me last night were Aliaksandra Sasnovich in the Women’s and Tomas Berdych in the Men’s…

They must breed them strong in Belarus. Sasnovich doesn’t have the imposing physical presence of the fast-rising Sabalenka or former World No.1 and two-time Aussie Open champion Victoria Azarenka. But like her two better-known compatriots, she’s flying the flag with a brand of all-or-nothing attacking tennis…

Sasnovich has something of the quiet outsider about her. Not many people seem to be talking about the 24-year-old this week. Yet she’s won 9 out of 11 matches in Australia this month, reaching the WTA Brisbane quarter finals and the WTA Sydney final in the build-up to the big one in Melbourne. During that run she’s beaten higher-ranked opposition in Elina Svitolina, Daria Kasatkina and then just last night, Anett Kontaveit.

There’s usually at least one player who breaks through at a big price and makes a name for themselves at a Grand Slam. At odds of 100/1 and 80/1, Sasnovich could be that player in the bottom quarter of the Women’s draw. It’s not as far-fetched as it might sound that we could see an all-Belarusian semi final in this side of the draw, with Sabalenka already in the book for us.

At 33 years old, Tomas Berdych has burst back into contention at the start of 2019. The Czech missed six months with a back injury, and before that had experienced a slump in form in recent years. However, Berdych is back now and looking very good indeed…

Berdych has won 6 out of 7 matches on hard courts so far this month, including a run to the ATP Doha final as a 66/1 outsider. He’s opened up here in Melbourne with two rapid-fire 3-0 wins, serving superbly and winning a mightily impressive 88% of 1st Serve Points.

Tomas has got history at the Australian Open. He beat Nadal to reach the semi finals in 2015. He could face Rafa again in the bottom half of the Men’s draw this fortnight. In his last eight appearances here, Berdych has made five quarter finals and two semi finals. At 66/1, this is a comeback story that we should follow.

Back the young guns tonight…

In the Match Winner markets, I’m backing these four promising youngsters to spring a few surprises tonight. They’re all priced as underdogs, and all taking on opponents who have slipped up on early-round banana skins before…

  • Bianca Vanessa Andreescu is 15/8 (2.88) to beat Anastasija Sevastova. The 18-year-old Canadian has started the season in eye-catching form with 11 out of 12 wins on hard courts, including victories over Caroline Wozniacki and Venus Williams
  • Anastasia Potapova is on our Ones to Watch in 2019 list and odds of 3/1 (4.00) put the 17-year-old in ‘potential shock’ territory v Madison Keys
  • Natalia Vikhlyantseva is a 9/5 (2.80) outsider to beat Timea Bacsinszky, whose recent results are a little rose-tinted thanks to wins over opponents who were having very shaky days on serve (Kasatkina, Sevastova)
  • Sofia Kenin is another exciting, hard-hitting teenager in sparkling form, on a six-match winning streak having won WTA Hobart last week without dropping a set. The 20-year-old American doesn’t look scared of anyone. Kenin is 11/5 (3.20) to beat World No.1 Simona Halep, who has won just one of her last six matches and parted ways with her coach at the end of 2018. Halep was trailing by a set and a break in the 1st Round until blisters slowed down Kai Kanepi

Today’s Ones to Watch picks are:

Women’s – Outright Winner:

BET: Aliaksandra Sasnovich @ 100/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 100/1 (101.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 80/1 (81.00) Boylesports, Marathonbet, 66/1 (67.00) general
Latest odds here >>

Men’s – Outright Winner:

BET: Tomas Berdych @ 66/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 66/1 (67.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, NetBet, 10Bet
Latest odds here >>

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds for 1-2 places

Women’s – Match Winner:

BET: Bianca Vanessa Andreescu to beat Anastasija Sevastova @ 15/8
BOOKIES: 15/8 (2.88) Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet, 7/4 (2.75) Bet365, William Hill, Betway
Latest odds here >>

BET: Anastasia Potapova to beat Madison Keys @ 3/1
BOOKIES: 3/1 (4.00) Bet365, BetVictor, 29/10 (3.90) NetBet, 10Bet, 11/4 (3.75) Boylesports
Latest odds here >>

BET: Natalia Vikhlyantseva to beat Timea Bacsinszky @ 9/5
BOOKIES: 9/5 (2.80) BetVictor, 7/4 (2.75) Bet365, William Hill, Betway
Latest odds here >>

BET: Sofia Kenin to beat Simona Halep @ 11/5
BOOKIES: 11/5 (3.20) Bet365, Betway, 21/10 (3.10) William Hill, 2/1 (3.00) BetVictor
Latest odds here >>

Play starts from Midnight.

I’ll be back by 9pm tomorrow with your Bets of the Day email for Day Five.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch