Tennis Betting Advice - January 2019
Australian Open: Day Six – and teenage dreams…
Friday 18th January 2019
Australian Open - Bets of the Day
In your Ones to Watch email today:
It only takes one…
I won’t lie. Last night was a tough watch. My match bets went down. And three of our Outright Winner picks exited the tournament.
At times like that it does me well to remember something a late friend said to me. Taking me under his wing when I was a much younger man and still very much new to this betting game, he said:
There’s always tomorrow.
And he was right.
Tennis players have to deal with losing. Lots. Each week in every tournament, from 32, 64 or 128 starting names in the draw – only one man or woman goes home with the trophy. They play again in the next event. And the next one. And the next one.
The point is, the good days and the wins make it all worthwhile. They especially make it worthwhile with the kind of big prices we deal with here at Ones to Watch…
50/1, 66/1, 100/1, 150/1…
We move on with 50/1 Borna Coric, 66/1 Tomas Berdych and 100/1 Elise Mertens still in action for us. Not to mention early 150/1 One to Watch Amanda Anisimova. And that’s just here at the Australian Open this week. We’re only in the first month of the season. At those prices, we don’t need many ‘good days’ to make it a good year.
Aryna Sabalanka crashed out last night. She played poorly by her recent high standards. But she also ran into a young player in devastating form. That player was 17-year-old Anisimova, who becomes the first player born in the 2000s to reach the 4th Round of a Grand Slam…
The American teenager beat Sabalenka at her own game – all-out attack, ruthless shot-making and brutal pace & power. It took Anisimova little over an hour to despatch one of the form players on the tour. And she’s got her head screwed on. Watch the on-court interview here.
Next up, Petra Kvitova. Can Anisimova beat the powerful Czech at her own game, too? Well, yes. She certainly can. Because Amanda did just that at Indian Wells last year, taking out Kvitova in straight sets. The fairy-tale could continue. Skybet’s 200/1 didn’t last long this week. And overnight, 125/1 turned into 25/1.
Berdych was impressive again last night, too. His Points Won on 1st Serve percentage stayed over 80%. And aged 33 and making a comeback on the tour this month, he looks the most content I’ve ever seen him on the court. That’s a good sign. If his head’s right, then he can really be a serious title contender here. The bookies have trimmed Tomas from 66/1 to 40/1 in general. Next up is one of the Toughest Tasks in Tennis: beating Rafael Nadal at a Grand Slam. But Berdych has done it before at this tournament…
Berdych v Nadal and Kvitova v Anisimova are on Saturday night/ Sunday morning.
Tonight’s matches…
Coric and Mertens play in the 3rd Round tonight. Coric is a 1/6 (1.17) favourite to beat Filip Krajinovic. Mertens is priced up as the slight 6/5 (2.20) underdog v Madison Keys.
Elsewhere, there are some exciting match-ups on the Day Six schedule…
Novak Djokovic v Denis Shapovalov should be fun. Djokovic has the best defence in the world. Young lefty Shapovalov pulls off highlights-reel stunners every time he gets on court – sometimes with both feet off the ground.
Qiang Wang is on our Ones to Watch in 2019 list. She’s in for a close one against Anastasija Sevastova, with the bookies making it nip-and-tuck. Both women build some great points around the court, so expect some nice rallies.
Simona Halep v Venus Williams sees the current World No.1 take on the veteran former No.1. Venus is 38 years of age now but still tough to beat. Both her matches this week have gone the distance to three sets, and so have both of Halep’s. It’s 6/4 (2.50) to go to three sets tonight. The head-to-head is 3-2 to Venus, but Halep has won the last two.
Camila Giorgi v Karolina Pliskova will see some fierce ball striking. Ice-woman Pliskova has the serve and reliability. Italian Giorgi will go for broke. The head-to-head is 4-1 in favour of the favourite Pliskova.
And then we have the eye-catching match of the day…
Tournament favourite Serena Williams v Dayana Yastremska – who is another hard-hitting, no-fear teenager making a name for herself, and another of our 10 Ones to Watch in 2019 names.
Serena is 1/7 (1.14). Yastremska is 5/1 (6.00). Hardly anyone has the power to live with Serena from the back of the court, but Yastremska could turn out to be one of them. Whether or not she’s ready for the big challenge just yet though, I’m not sure. Losing the middle set against the ailing Carla Suarez Navarro in the last round isn’t a good sign; you can’t switch off for a moment against Serena.
I’ll be watching that match for sure. And as many of the above as I can get my eyeballs on, throughout the night. But it’s a No Bet day for me.
We have the business half of the tournament coming up next week. Plenty more opportunities will follow. And there are some corking matches lined up for Saturday night and Sunday morning…
I’ll be back by 9pm tomorrow with your Bets of the Day email for Day Seven.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson