Tennis Betting Advice - January 2023

Australian Open: Day 1 - including two 100/1 picks...

Sunday 15th January 2023

Good afternoon, and welcome to Day 1 of your Australian Open 2023 daily service.

Play starts from midnight, UK time…

I’m excited for the first Grand Slam of the year to get underway. I’ll be pulling late nights, and I’m stocked up on my favourite brand of German biscuits to keep me going…

Without further ado, let’s get down to business…

The first thing for me to do today is to point you in the direction of my previous two articles, available in the email archive on the Ones to Watch website. These outline and back-up our outsider-betting, big-odds stance to the Outright Winner markets:

12th Jan:
Reasons to expect the unexpected in Melbourne…

Including nuggets like this…

  • 4 of the last 9 women’s Grand Slams have produced a 100/1+ champion

14th Jan:
Our plan of action for the Australian Open…

Key point being…

  • We go after appealing outsiders, at attractive Each Way prices 

Outright Winner picks – MEN’S…

Day 1 sees the top half of the men’s and women’s draws in action, with over 60 matches on the Monday schedule in Melbourne. And then the same again on Tuesday, with the respective bottom halves getting underway.

To start us off today, I’m focusing on some of the big Each Way prices available in the men’s Outright Winner market. And that’s because there’s the whiff of an upset in the air…

Rafa on the ropes?

Reigning champion Rafael Nadal has described himself as ‘vulnerable’ coming into this event. And while that could be written off as kidology, it doesn’t take a genius to point out that the 36-year-old Spanish legend is approaching the twilight of his top-level playing career.

He’s not done yet, of course – and you can never write off a true champion fighter like Rafa. However, the facts are there: with injury niggles most times we see him these days… two out of two match losses so far in 2023… and just one win in seven matches in all competitions since the US Open last September.

I’m sticking my neck out a bit here (that’s my job…), and I’m going on record to say that it wouldn’t be as much of a shock as the media would make out if Rafa was to lose to Jack Draper tonight. In fact, I’m advising we take odds of 2/1 for the underdog to make the headlines…

The 21-year-old Brit is very much on the up, full of youthful energy and power. Standing 6’4”, Jack has a serve that can cause problems to any opponent when firing.

And if the youngster goes into this match with the big-stage belief that we’ve already seen displayed by him in his fledgling pro career. Then Draper can build on his growing status as a future Grand Slam challenger, and become only the second player to ever knock Nadal out in the 1st round of the Australian Open (the other – Fernando Verdasco in 2016).

  • Jack Draper has made the semi finals in two of his last three ATP events – and won 4 out of 6 matches so far in the new season

If Nadal does tumble – be it in the small hours of Monday morning, or at a later round over the next fortnight – then one of the outsiders in this part of the draw could make their move. At big prices…

Rafa is 16/1 in general for the trophy (a price that would be a lot shorter if the defending champ was looking at the top of his game). With Daniil Medvedev also in this section, the 6/1 second-favourite for the title. The Russian has been runner-up on his last two visits to Melbourne Park, but Medvedev also has not been at his full fitness or performance level in recent months.

Tournament favourite Novak Djokovic is odd-on at 5/6 (1.83) in general. Novak is in the other side of the draw, which means that in terms of our big-odds Each Way betting, with 1/2 odds for reaching the final, we don’t need to worry about Novak just yet…

The two outsiders that I like - following a theme I’m keen to emphasise and stick with throughout the course of the season – are both players that we’ve backed before at this same tournament and in other previous Grand Slams, at big prices…

HUBERT HURKACZ @ 100/1

Hubi has done us proud and come close at big prices before. Including when we had him in the book for Wimbledon 2021 at 100/1+, where he reached the semi finals, becoming the last man to beat Roger Federer at SW19.

Last season, the big-serving Pole did well for us at two of the big ATP ‘Masters’ 1000 events. Reaching the semi final in Miami, and then the final in Montreal for an Each Way payout – when in the book both times at 33/1.

Hurkacz’s coach Craig Boynton says Hubert is the kind of guy ‘you want dating your daughter’…

The ‘nice guy’ tag isn’t a bad one to have, although it can be associated with a lack of killer instinct. I reckon there is definitely more to come from Hurkacz at the Majors. He’s skirting the Top 10 in the world rankings right now. Age 25, he could be about to hit his prime.

Make no mistake, behind all the polite interviews and shy body language – this is a player who wants to go all the way. Hubi has spoken about the achievements of compatriot Iga Swiatek, women’s world no.1 and a multiple Grand Slam champion – and he wants to emulate that for his country.

In terms of the price, we’re more accustomed to seeing Hubert Hurkacz at 33/1 for big tournaments these days. Which makes Aussie Open quotes of 100/1 and 80/1 well worth us taking an Each Way interest.

DENIS SHAPOVALOV @ 100/1

At similar prices of 100/1 and 80/1 Each Way, albeit a very different and more vocal, animated and fiery character on court – Denis Shapovalov is one I’m keen to get behind again…

Two years ago, we backed Hurkacz for the Australian Open 2021 at 300/1. In 2020, I flagged up Shapovalov at 50/1 for Melbourne – and then again at 80/1 last year. Shapo ended up kicking himself (almost literally), edged out by Nadal in a five-set classic in the 2022 quarter finals. The incredibly talented Canadian felt he could have gone all the way.

If Denis turns up here with his head in the right place – which is something we can’t know – then the dangerous lefty could deliver on some unfinished Grand Slam business Down Under. The big prices certainly appeal.

Match Winner picks – Day 1…

Along with Draper to beat Nadal at 2/1, as a Match Winner single. At similar odds, I’m also going for another youngster to spring an upset tonight…

We’ve talked a bit about the Fruhvirtova sisters recently. Let’s get behind the youngest of that upcoming Czech pair, 15-year-old Brenda Fruhvirtova. Priced as the underdog to beat the out-of-form Aliaksandra Sasnovich of Belarus…

  • Sasnovich has started the new season with 2 defeats from 2 matches. The 28-year-old has been knocked out of the Australian Open in the 1st round, three years running

Brenda Fruhvirtova won three out of three matches to come through Qualifying last week, displaying some impressive come-from-behind steeliness. The teenager can ride the momentum here, as she makes her Grand Slam main-draw debut. Everything around her suggests she belongs at this level. Brenda could even be this year’s Coco Gauff, in terms of a young teenager making a run at a Major in 2023.

----------------------------------------------------

Ones to Watch picks:

Australian Open 2023

Men’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

  • Hubert Hurkacz @ 100/1 Betfred, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 80/1 Bet365, BetVictor, William Hill, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway
  • Denis Shapovalov @ 100/1 Betfred, Skybet, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Unibet, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports, Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 10Bet, LiveScoreBet

Match Winner:

  • Jack Draper to beat Rafael Nadal @ 11/5 (3.2) Bet365, BetVictor, 2/1 (3.0) Skybet, Boylesports, Betway 
  • Brenda Fruhvirtova to beat Aliaksandra Sasnovich @ 2/1 (3.0) BetVictor, 19/10 (2.9) William Hill, 15/8 (2.88) Boylesports, 9/5 (2.8) Betway, 7/4 (2.75) Bet365, Skybet

Note: click here to find out why I recommend certain bookmakers for Match Winner bets.

----------------------------------------------------

I’ll be back by 5pm Monday with your Day 2 email and advice.

P.S
You can email me during the tournament at:

tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch