Tennis Betting Advice - January 2023
Australian Open: Day 2 - Women's picks at 25/1 and 75/1...
Monday 16th January 2023
Good afternoon, and welcome to Day 2 of your Australian Open 2023 daily service.
Play starts from midnight, UK time…
The tournament kicked off last night, and it was good to see a healthy crowd in attendance on the stadium courts. The atmosphere in the stands looked particularly good for Stefanos Tsitsipas’ win over Quetin Halys, with the Greek player getting plenty of support in Melbourne. The same flag-waving fans will continue to turn out in force to make plenty of noise for Maria Sakkari this week, too.
On the betting front, no wins from our first two match underdog/ youngster picks last night – but at the odds we go for, we won’t land the win every time… Jack Draper put up a good showing against reigning champ Rafa Nadal, but his body let him down as the contest went into the third and fourth set. The 21-year-old Brit very much remains one to watch for the future. As does 15-year-old Brenda Fruhvirtova, who came through qualifying but then lost on her main-draw debut against Aliaksandra Sasnovich.
Brenda’s older sister Linda plays in the 1st round tonight. As strange as it might sound to have to refer to a teenager as ‘older’ – Linda is 17, and higher-ranked than her upcoming 15-year-old sister…
Outright Winner picks – WOMEN’S…
LINDA FRUHVIRTOVA was one of two early-bird teenage picks that I put up as 100/1+ Ones to Watch for the Australian Open this month. Read the original piece here. Since then, 18-year-old Linda Noskova has reached a maiden final on the WTA Tour, in Adelaide… but then unfortunately for us, fell in Qualifying here in Melbourne (that 100/1+ bet will either be settled as a loser, or void with stakes returned, depending on your bookie).
Back to the Czech teenager that will be in action tonight though, and we have Linda Fruhvirtova in the book at 150/1 or 100/1 Each Way – or maybe you have 600/1 or 400/1 if you were able to get on when Unibet were dangling the biggest prices the other week.
Since the draw has come out and the ante-post market has turned into the ‘live’ Outright Winner betting, Linda F can today be backed at top prices of 275/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook) and 250/1 (Bet365). If you’re not on yet – you know what to do.
That one of course is very much a huge-odds, ‘long shot’ price selection – even for us. But as I always say with the highly-rated youngsters: I want to be on them when they first strike it big.
I’ve got some more massive prices in mind for the women’s draw this week; including in the top half of the draw, which was in action on Day 1. World no.1 and tournament favourite Iga Swiatek is in that top half, which is one reason some of the outright prices for the other names are into triple figures. More on those potential bets tomorrow or later in the week – the research continues, and I’m mulling a few scenarios over in my head and in my notes.
There’s some business for us to do today though, before anyone in the bottom half of the draw plays tonight…
Recent women’s Grand Slams have been absolute gold-mines for big-odds betting opportunities. Wide-open, nothing-is-impossible, new-name-on-the-trophy, outright carnage…
These figures should fill you with encouragement as we lay down our first Each Way bets for the first women’s Grand Slam of 2023:
Maiden winners:
Since the Australian Open 2017, when Serena Williams won her last Major:
Big odds:
And building on what I said ahead of yesterday’s 100/1 men’s picks (catch up here – both Hubert Hurkacz and Denis Shapovalov are now safely through to the 2nd round). I want to make a habit this season of backing players that we’ve had down as Ones to Watch picks before…
Now, sometimes that means taking a shorter price than we might have got a year or two ago. But that’s okay if we still think there is value in the Australian Open 2023 prices. And with the likes of reigning champion Ashleigh Barty now retired, and two-time winner Naomi Osaka taking the year out to have her first child. Then it makes sense that some players on our radar are going to be more like 25/1 and 40/1 than say, 80/1, and 100/1.
And I’ll remind you again of these two stats nuggets from above:
Whereas someone like last week’s Adelaide trophy winner Belinda Bencic is just 16/1 to win a maiden Major here in Melbourne this week. And Aryna Sabalenka at 8/1; like-wise Jessica Pegula. All players that we’ve backed for Grand Slams before at much, much bigger prices – as yet to no avail…
Two that I like from the bottom half of this women’s draw-sheet as dark-horse contenders for a first Grand Slam final appearance are:
VERONIKA KUDERMETOVA @ 25/1 – 20/1
We backed Veronika Kudermetova as recently as last week, where she reached the semi finals in Adelaide, only to withdraw before that final-four match (citing a left hip injury). It can be read that that was a precautionary move, after a couple of long matches last week, back-to-back. It was certainly frustrating for us, seeing as we were on the 25-year-old Russian at 12/1 (although Skybet’s terms suggest you may have got your stake back there – which would make them the only bookie to be so kind, to my knowledge).
Anyways, I’m prepared to forgive the world no.9 and put her in the book for the big one today...
Kudermetova was a 200/1 Aussie Open outside bet for us back in January 2021. Two years down the line, with Veronika now a Top 10 player. And having reached the quarter finals or better in each of her last five tournaments – and in nine of her last 12 going back to the French Open last spring. We can hardly expect to get triple-figure odds this time.
Last season we backed the big-serving Russian a few times. At 22/1, 50/1 (twice), and 100/1 (US Open). As with our 50/1 Australian Open winner in 2020, for example, where we followed Sofia Kenin on several occasions in 2019 before tracking her down for a Big One when she one her first Grand Slam title…
Kudermetova at odds of 25/1 – 20/1 Each Way is going in as one of my form-horse/ dark-horse picks here in Melbourne. She’s good enough to do it. And the consistency of performance has been there in recent months, too.
BEATRIZ HADDAD MAIA @ 75/1 – 40/1
Beatriz Haddad Maia burst onto the trophy-winning scene last summer, with the Brazilian left-hander reaching four finals out of five tournaments across May and June – two on clay, and two on grass…
The 26-year-old leapt from no.82 in the rankings at the start of 2022 to no.16 by the end of the year – and Beatriz now sits at a career-high of no.14 in the world.
During the second half of last season, we backed Haddad Maia at various hard-court events at odds of 25/1, 33/1, and 50/1. And with good reason, as her power game suits hard-court conditions:
That noteworthy 69% win-rate puts Beatriz tantalisingly close to the self-styled ‘70% surface rule’ that we did well from last season and in the past (for example, taking note of Ons Jabeur’s 70%+ win-rate on grass, and backing her accordingly for Wimbledon when still 40/1 last year).
Haddad Maia plays with the kind of no-fear, all-out aggression game that has reaped dividends for first-time women’s Major champions in recent times. Think Elena Rybakina blasting the ball around at Wimbledon last summer… Emma Raducanu winning every match in straight sets at the US Open 2021, Iga Swiatek doing the same at the French Open 2020… and Jelena Ostapenko thumping her way to 100/1 glory at Roland Garros in 2017.
Age 26, Beatriz can be regarded as a late bloomer at the top tier of the women’s game. Injuries hampered her early days – as highlighted in this ITF article from back in 2017. I believe there’s something in Haddad Maia’s big-hitting game that can see her make a big Grand Slam run one of these days…
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Ones to Watch picks:
Australian Open 2023
Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
And if you haven’t backed her already: Linda Fruhvirtova is 275/1 @ Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, 250/1 Bet365, 100/1+ in general.
Also worth pointing out: if you’re happy to trade and/ or bet Win Only rather than have an Each Way bet with the fixed-odds firms, you can often obtain the best outright prices in the tournament winner market on the Betfair Exchange. For example, as I write, there’s a few quid available to be taken for Haddad Maia at odds of 130.0.
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I’ll be back by 5pm Tuesday with your Day 3 email and advice, when I expect us to get involved in some Match Winner betting.
P.S
You can email me during the tournament at:
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson