Tennis Betting Advice - January 2023
Australian Open: Day 6 - Czech line of enquiry at 33/1...
Friday 20th January 2023
Good afternoon, and welcome to Day 6 of your Australian Open 2023 daily service. Play starts from Midnight, UK time…
Men’s top half opens up…
I’m glad we were on both Denis Shapovalov and Hubert Hurkacz at 100/1 this week. The bookies made this morning’s 3rd round match between those two 50-50, with pick ‘em odds of 10/11 (1.91) each. It went to the full five sets. Hurkacz went through…
The Pole is into the Last 16, and now trading at 33/1 - 20/1 for the trophy. That Hurkacz price drop is thanks largely in part to youngster Sebastian Korda knocking out two-time Aussie Open finalist, Daniil Medvedev. Our man Hubi Hurkacz will now face Seb Korda for a place in the quarter finals.
With the tournament second favourite Medvedev out, and reigning champ Rafael Nadal already gone, the top half of this men’s draw has opened up somewhat. Which is precisely what we were hoping for when backing a couple of 100/1 outsiders. And at the odds we go for, that affords us to lose a few players along the way, which we inevitably do.
MARKETA VONDROUSOVA @ 33/1
In the women’s Outright Winner market, our pre-tournament, early-bird 100/1+ teenage Ones to Watch pick Linda Fruhvirtova is in action again tonight…
The 17-year-old is through to the 3rd round of a Major for the first time, and she’s hungry for more. Standing in Linda’s way, a fellow Czech, our 40/1 French Open 2019 friend Marketa Vondrousova…
Coming into this tournament ranked down at no.86 in the world after a year or so of injury struggles (including surgery). Vondrousova has been as high as no.14 before. I’ve written several times about the left-hander’s sublime racket skills and enigmatic on-court demeanour.
Marketa was all smiles after beating world no.2 Ons Jabeur in the last round, in a tricky late-night encounter. Which was great to see. Newly-married and injury-free, perhaps Vondrousova is ready to lurch back into Grand Slam-challenging form - having made the Roland Garros final for us at 40/1 Each Way when still a teenager.
The more experienced of these two Czech talents, Vondrousova is rightly priced as the favourite to beat our 17-year-old long-shot Fruhvirtova - although I’m not ruling out a big win for the teen by any means.
Vondrousova does also fit the mould that I discussed the other day: a clay-courter with hard-court credentials, which might just prove the winning formula in these so-far slower than usual Australian Open 2023 playing conditions.
I want to have a player in the next round at a good price here. Vondrousova at top prices of 33/1 and 28/1 ticks that box for me today, to go along with 100/1+ Fruhvirtova already in the book. That’s how I’m managing the Outright portfolio right now, with the price still looking good to me.
Day 6 match picks…
Also catching my eye today, a couple of decent prices in the men’s 3rd round:
The all-American clash between Tommy Paul and Jenson Brooksby could be a cracker. I reckon the value lies with the younger man and slight underdog in the betting, 22-year-old Brooksby. Always after the biggest and best price, I’m going with Brooksby 3-2 in the Set Betting market, available at odds of 13/2 - 11/2.
Alexei Popyrin v Ben Shelton is Australia v America, with the latter on his first ever trip to play outside of the States. Both men serve big. Popyrin’s matches have both gone to five sets this week, with three Tiebreaks in each. Shelton has also played out three 7-6 sets across the first two rounds. Expect more Tiebreak action today…
It’s short odds-on for a Tiebreak in the Match, at just 1/5 (1.2). But I like Shelton to strike first, and win the 1st Set by the 7-6 score. Popyrin has lost the opening set in two out of two matches so far. The 1st Set Shelton 7-6 score is 4/1+.
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Ones to Watch picks:
Australian Open 2023
Women’s Outright Winner - Each Way:
Place this bet if you’re also on Fruhvirtova at big odds
Men’s matches:
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I’ll be back for 5pm Saturday with your Day 7 email.
P.S
You can email me during the tournament at:
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson