Tennis Betting Advice - January 2023
Australian Open: Day 14 – the quest for value in the Men’s Final…
Saturday 28th January 2023
Good afternoon, and welcome to Day 14 of your Australian Open 2023 daily service. The Men’s Final is scheduled for Sunday 8.30am, UK time…
Men’s Final: Tsitsipas v Djokovic
The men’s final takes place at 8.30am Sunday morning, live on Eurosport…
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Novak Djokovic
The quest for value is tricky in this one. The odds are overwhelmingly in favour of Djokovic, as he looks to complete his Australian Open ‘revenge mission’ – and win title number 10 at Melbourne Park.
The bookies have Novak at 1/5 (1.2) to win the match. With Greek challenger Tsitsipas as a 7/2 (4.5) underdog.
It’s 11/8 (2.38) for the Serbian star to win in straight sets, 3-0. Which I’m sure will have plenty of backers from those looking for any kind of odds-against price about the favourite winning in dominant style.
A potentially key piece of form for this match-up could be the 2021 French Open final. Playing in his first – and until now, only – Grand Slam final. Tsitsipas went two sets to love up against Djokovic. Only for the top dog to turn it around, and win 3-2. That Set Betting score is 5/1 (6.0) for Sunday’s final (Djokovic 3-2).
On the flipside of a five-setter, odds in the region of 10/1 for the Tsitsipas 3-2 score would be my best advice for anyone looking to bet on the upset. To put it another way: if Stef wins this, it’ll most likely take the full five sets (and several hours).
The career head-to-head is a pretty resounding 10-2 to the 35-year-old. With Djokovic coming out on top in each of their last eight meetings.
I do think 24-year-old Tsitsipas has a chance here. There’s always a chance. But from what we’ve seen in the last couple of rounds from Novak this week, any kind of shock result is probably going to come from injury, or a ‘bad day at the office’ from Djokovic’s side of the net. And the former no.1 doesn’t have many bad days on the big stage.
Stefanos could turn up with a masterplan to disrupt the Djokovic game. You never know. But realistically, I reckon the Greek camp will be aiming for something along the lines of: start well (the first set is so important), look after your own service games, and make Novak work for every point, and move him from side to side (test that taped leg by making him stretch for a few shots).
That said, my take on the best route to decent, available prices here is to go down the Tiebreak route. I say available, because if there were more markets to shoot at, I would be interested in a speculative play on the Most Double Faults settling as a Tie. Both men have served exactly 22 Double Faults each so far in the tournament. The Tie has paid out in one of their last seven encounters, with two others seeing just one double fault in it, either way – and a further two matches seeing the Double Faults tally settled by a margin of just two. Only Bet365 seem to have a Most Double Faults market with the Tie option, though (6/1).
Back to the Tiebreaks, and bets are a little bit more readily available here…
Tiebreak in the Match (or Over 0.5 Tiebreaks) can be backed at 4/5 (1.8) with Skybet, and not far off that price with a couple of other firms – see below.
Key stats:
For fancier prices, you could target the Set Betting Correct Score markets, eg. a player to win the 1st Set, 7-6.
And finally…
One final angle to point out for this match…
The crowd will be loud for both players, I’m sure. But as we’ve discussed before, Novak wants to be loved – and doesn’t always get it. Tsitsipas will have a big Greek following in the crowd here. If Djokovic does get hot under the collar, we could see this match becoming very entertaining.
And if it’s anything like the five-setter they had in Paris a couple of years back, then we could yet have a classic final – despite Djokovic’s heavy favouritism in the betting…
I finally landed on a winning Set Betting score in the women’s final, with Aryna Sabalenka taking it, 2-1. Coming from a set down to beat Elena Rybakina, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4. That final set wasn’t far off going to 6-6 for a 10/1 deciding Tiebreak, either… that ‘Go the Distance’ option is 14/1 for the men’s final (Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports). Read more about that market in yesterday’s email here, as some bookies call it by different names.
That 14/1 ‘Go the Distance’ option would be my idea of a big price worth covering for a small stake (eg. 0.5 pt) in Sunday morning’s men’s final. Just in case it does turn out to be an epic…
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Ones to Watch picks:
Australian Open 2023 – Men’s Final
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Novak Djokovic
Main bet:
Other bet:
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We can expect to be having our next Each Way tournament selections very soon. Starting with two WTA events next week, in Hua Hin, and Lyon. I’ll be in touch early in the week with any Outright Winner picks.
P.S
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson