Tennis Betting Advice - January 2024
Aus Open Day 1: Tournament picks at 28/1 and 125/1...
Saturday 13th January 2024
Australian Open - Day 1
Good afternoon. The first Grand Slam of the season is here. Play starts in Melbourne from midnight tonight, UK time…
A day earlier than usual, as this year the Australian Open has expanded to a 15-day event. John McEnroe calls it a money-grab. The tournament organisers would argue otherwise. Mac says maybe he’s just sulking because his work for ESPN means it’s an extra day away from the States and his family. I’m sure my wife would rather I wasn’t head down on my computer this Saturday afternoon, either.
But as I remember saying more than once during the Covid lockdowns, when there was no live sport at all on our screens: I’m not going to complain about seeing more of the sport I love…
Let’s get down to business…
Outright Winner picks…
There will be plenty of match bets and previews to come over the next fortnight or so. But here on Day 1, we’ll start with our tournament selections. As outlined in Friday’s email, our plan for the Australian Open is the same as ever:
Here at Ones to Watch, we back appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices.
And for a whole stack of evidence as to why we do this, refresh yourself of my case for a 100/1 outsider article from Thursday.
Already in the book…
We have two players already in the book as early-bird picks from last autumn. These two youngsters both also feature prominently in your Ones to Watch in 2024 Report:
Men’s - Ben Shelton
Best price today 66/1 SpreadEx & Sporting Index, 50/1+ general
Women’s - Linda Noskova
Best price today 300/1 Betfred, SpreadEx & Sporting Index, 100/1+ general
The draws have been pretty tough on those two Ones to Watch names. Shelton’s in the same quarter as 10-time Aussie Open champ, world no.1 and 2024 favourite Novak Djokovic. Noskova is in the same quarter as world no.1 and tournament favourite Iga Swiatek, and takes on a fellow Czech in the 1st round (Marie Bouzkova).
On the upside, both 21-year-old Shelton and 19-year-old Noskova are exciting young players, keen to improve, hungry to succeed - and won’t fear anyone.
Prices to take today - Men’s:
Starting with the Men’s Outright Winner market, I’m following my own advice from years past - and sticking with the promising, ‘real deal’ youngsters. In the case of this tournament, that means two more talented and seriously good young men from this season’s new Ones to Watch in 2024 Report, to go alongside Ben Shelton:
Holger Rune @ 28/1
The 20-year-old Dane is already a Top 10 player, four-time winner on the ATP Tour, and three-time Grand Slam quarter-finalist. He’s started the new season with a final in Brisbane. Holger makes no secret of the fact that he’s aiming for the very top - and the sport’s biggest prizes. Rune made the Last 16 (week 2) here in Melbourne last year. He’ll be gunning for an even deeper run this time. Some might say the first Major of 2024 is too soon for him to go all the way, but I disagree. I’ve seen enough already: this kid is the real deal.
Sebastian Korda @ 125/1
In terms of a 100/1+ young gun with serious intentions to go far, then look no further than 23-year-old American, Seb Korda. He made the quarter finals here in Melbourne last year, before injury stopped him in his tracks. Made the Adelaide semis last week, and that’s a nice pipe-opener for the big target: a menacing run at a Grand Slam. Korda won the Aussie Open as a Junior. His dad Petr won the whole thing back in 1998. Seb is very much in the category of: let’s make sure we’re on him at the biggest odds when the big breakthrough comes.
Prices to take today - Women’s:
Onto the Women’s event now, and once again, we want to get behind outsiders with positive credentials. Starting with a new name looking to make a splash at the Majors…
Qinwen Zheng @ 33/1
Referring once more to my Ones to Watch in 2024 Report - 21-year-old Qinwen Zheng was the woman I named as the most likely to pose a genuine and consistent threat at the Grand Slams this season. The Chinese rising star finished 2023 like a train, and down in Australia, this might just be the Major venue where she feels most comfortable to make the next leap forward. A dangerous 1st serve and some easy-power forehands can do the damage, if on song. Well capable of delivering a surprise knockout blow to the favourites in her section of the draw, Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula. Zheng has the potential to really step it up this year.
An older and more familiar name catches the eye as a dark horse in this women’s Australian Open 2024 draw…
Jelena Ostapenko @ 50/1 & 40/1
One of these days, 100/1 French Open 2017 champ Ostapenko is going to strike it big again at a Grand Slam. Why not now? The quirky, hit-or-miss Latvian - now age 26 and closing in on the Top 10 once again - has just won the WTA Adelaide title. Last year, Jelena reeled off a couple of notable results at the Majors, beating Coco Gauff at the Aussie Open, and taking out Swiatek at the US Open. Those two quarter-final runs were the latest tantalising glimpse of what Ostapenko can do on the big stage when it all clicks. To add to the intrigue, the temperamental power-hitter just so happens to be in the 1st Quarter of the draw, which also contains Swiatek… and Ostapenko holds an immaculate 4-0 career head-to-head v the world no.1. That’s a very handy stat - and mental edge - to have on your side when things get serious here in Melbourne in the days to come.
That’s a total of 6 picks for the book so far, across a combined men’s & women’s opening field of 256 players. Putting us on a modest 2.34% of the Australian Open pack from Day 1…
We’ll more than likely add a couple more names & prices to the Outright, Each Way book. As the opening rounds pan out, the form starts to show, and the draw potentially opens up for the underdogs
Here are the best prices for our Outright Winner picks, going into Day 1…
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Ones to Watch picks - Australian Open:
Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
Note: sometimes you can beat the Each Way terms by placing a Win Only bet at the best price, along with a Reach the Final bet at big odds (Bet365 tends to be the best place to go for this).
Men’s:
Already in the book: Ben Shelton (see above)
Holger Rune @ 28/1 Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM, Boylesports, Betway, LiveScoreBet
Sebastian Korda @ best combo 125/1 Bet365 Win Only AND Reach the Final @ 100/1 Bet365. 125/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, LiveScoreBet, 100/1 general
Women’s:
Already in the book: Linda Noskova (see above)
Qinwen Zheng @ 33/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports, 888 Sport, 30/1 Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM, 28/1 Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred, LiveScoreBet, Betway
Jelena Ostapenko @ 50/1 Betway, 40/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, 888 Sport, Boylesports, SpreadEx, Sporting Index, LiveScoreBet
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You can watch the Australian Open live on Eurosport/ Discovery Plus.
I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 2 email…
Enjoy the tennis…
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone