OTW Extra Email Archive - January 2024
Australian Open: The case for a 100/1 winner...
Thursday 11th January 2024
I hope you’re enjoying the new weekly ‘Notes from the tour’ email. I’m certainly loving getting the chance to share my tennis thoughts with you more often.
Yesterday’s email included a 63/1 Trixie in the Set Betting market. If you’re a football bettor, then the comparison I use is that backing the 2-1 Set Betting scores is the tennis equivalent of Win & Both Teams to Score…
Whereas three fancied teams in the English Football League might be, say, 6/1 to all win on a Saturday afternoon. Those same three sides to all deliver for Win & Both Teams to Score is likely to pay upwards of 40/1.
With yesterday’s highlighted tennis selections, a standard pre-match win treble on Jessica Pegula, Daria Kasatkina, and Jelena Ostapenko would have come out at odds shorter than 2/1. In comparison, those three players to all win by the 2-1 Set Betting score was worth 63/1. You can see why I prefer those bigger prices…
As it turned out, Ostapenko won her match 2-0, Pegula ticked the box for the 2-1 victory - and Kasatkina was void, as her opponent pulled out before the match and handed our player a Walkover into the WTA Adelaide semi finals.
The shakedown being, the Trixie flagged up in yesterday’s email ended up treading water - which of course is much better than sinking…
With the Kasatkina leg void, and as such, dropping out of the multiples. The three doubles and the treble of the Trixie morphed into one winning single (the Pegula-Kasatkina double paying out as a 3/1 single on Pegula). Which would have covered total stakes. Nothing ventured, nothing gained…
I’ll be going again with big-odds angles like that in the first tennis Grand Slam of the year: the Australian Open starts late on Saturday night, UK time…
A major component of my Ones to Watch service is the Outright Winner markets and Each Way prices. And in recent times, the Grand Slams have been exciting places to go hunting…
Just take a look at these numbers. All compiled from my own personal database of tennis stats…
100/1 champs… 5 of the last 13 women's Grand Slams have produced a 100/1+ champion
Maiden winners… 18 of the last 32 women's Grand Slams have been won by players lifting a Major trophy for the first time
Different names on the trophy… Since the Australian Open 2017, when Serena Williams won her last Major – the last 27 women's Grand Slams have produced 18 different winning players
And with Each Way terms of half the odds for reaching a final, consider too that:
10 of the last 15 women's Grand Slams have produced at least one finalist at Day 1 odds of 33/1+
And 9 of the last 26 women’s Grand Slam finalists started the tournament as 100/1+ outsiders (35%)
While the recent men’s Majors don’t throw up such amazing numbers. There is certainly plenty of scope to get behind youngsters and outsiders this year. With the era of the Big Four making way for a changing of the guard…
Rafael Nadal has already pulled out injured. Roger Federer is long retired. Andy Murray hasn’t been past the 4th Round at the Australian Open since 2016. And even if you can’t see past Novak Djokovic as the favourite - he’ll still have to play somebody in the final (!)...
Lots of big-odds encouragement for us there…
The Aussie Open draw was made last night. I’ve already started to work my way through it, cross-referencing my player notes with the early prices…
Play will begin in the 1st Round from late Saturday night, UK time. I’ll be sending out my members-only Day 1 Australian Open Ones to Watch email on Saturday afternoon…
If you’re already a paid-up member of Ones to Watch, then sit tight.
If you’re NOT a member - then keep an eye on your emails tomorrow, Friday 12th January. With your chance to join for my DAILY Australian Open service, and much more…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone