Tennis Betting Advice - January 2024
Aus Open Day 3: Back these 4 women tonight...
Monday 15th January 2024
Australian Open - Day 3
Sunday was our first ‘live’ night of bets Down Under - and it was a positive one. A good start to a Grand Slam tournament always makes the sleep deprivation more tolerable…
We had three of our tournament outsiders in action on Day 2 (see below). And our 2/1 Match Winner treble came in.
Up and running…
On the Outright Winner front, these three big-odds Each Way picks all came through their 1st Round matches for us yesterday: Linda Noskova, Sebastian Korda, and Ben Shelton.
Noskova and Shelton were particularly impressive, both winning in straight sets against potentially tough opponents…
Shelton got himself going nicely against the battle-hardened veteran, Roberto Bautista-Agut.
While teenager Noskova started as the odds-against underdog v fellow Czech, Marie Bouzkova - but blew her away with a fine display of attacking tennis. Exactly what we want to see from a 19-year-old newcomer, looking to announce herself on the big stage. Noskova made a mockery of her previous 0-2 head-to-head record v Bouzkova - showing once again that when a new young player bursts onto the scene, the leap is so great, prior form and stats almost become irrelevant.
Teenage opinions…
In yesterday’s email I reeled off the names of a few 16-year-olds in the women’s draw. If you are wondering why I haven’t put up Ones to Watch in 2024 name, Mirra Andreeva, as an Aussie Open tournament bet for us: it comes purely down to price…
The Russian teenager went off at around 40/1 this weekend, and after winning her opening match this morning, Andreeva is now 33/1 at best. In comparison, we’re on 19-year-old Noskova at 100/1 and bigger. Betfred clearly weren’t as impressed by young Linda as me, as odds of 300/1 are still on the table. Elsewhere, Bet365 have now chopped Noskova to 80/1. With plenty of 100/1+ about elsewhere (including Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook at 150/1).
In the book so far…
After Noskova, Korda, and Shelton all won last night. The 1st Round completes on Day 3 tonight/ Tuesday morning with Qinwen Zheng, Jelena Ostapenko, and Holger Rune all in action. Caroline Wozniacki is already through to round 2.
View all our Australian Open 2024 Outright Winner picks so far in the Day 1 email on our website, here. And in the Day 2 email here, where we added another 100/1+ shot yesterday (Wozniacki)...
A note on Caroline Wozniacki, in case you missed her yesterday. 100/1 Outright is still available with Skybet, Boylesports, SpreadEx & Sporting Index. And Bet365 are 66/1 for Caro to Reach the Final - which will beat the Each Way place terms you’ll get with most firms (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
Match picks…
While the big-odds Each Way outsider picks are our flagship bets here at Ones to Watch. We’re also looking to make money from the busy daily schedule of matches…
After a winning 2/1 Match Winner treble yesterday. Here are four more women’s 1st Round picks, who I all fancy to win at the prices. The 4-fold acca pays 5/2 or better:
Daria Kasatkina to beat Peyton Stearns - college champ Stearns got a respectable nod in our pre-season 2024 report. But Kasatkina made the WTA Adelaide final last week - and holds a 2-0 head-to-head over the young American, with both victories coming last season, and in straight sets.
Lin Zhu to beat Oceane Dodin - Lin Zhu is closing in on a career-high Top 30 ranking, while Dodin sits at no.95. The Chinese player beat two opponents ranked higher than Dodin to reach the WTA Hobart quarter finals in the run-up to the Australian Open. Form and career momentum is with Zhu.
Victoria Azarenka to beat Camila Giorgi - two 30-something ladies who have been around a long time. Azarenka has had by far the more glittering career; indeed, Vika is the last woman to win back-to-back Aussie Open titles. The head-to-head for completed meetings is 2-1 to Azarenka, including both of their most recent clashes.
Emma Navarro to beat Xiyu Wang - another finalist from last week here, with 22-year-old Navarro winning a maiden WTA title, at Hobart. In doing so, the young American climbed to a new career-high of no.26 in the world. She’s won 8 out of 9 matches so far in 2024, beaten only by reigning US Open champion Coco Gauff. Fellow 22-year-old Wang is respected, and the world no.60 made the Auckland semis this month. But again, I want to be on the player bringing the greater confidence into Melbourne - and that’s Navarro.
Play starts at midnight…
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Ones to Watch picks - Australian Open:
Women’s 1st Round - Match Winners:
Recommended bookies for Match Winner bets - read more here.
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You can watch the Australian Open live on Eurosport/ Discovery Plus.
I’ll be back by 5pm tomorrow with your Day 4 email…
Enjoy the tennis…
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone