Tennis Betting Advice - January 2024

Aus Open Day 3: Back these 4 women tonight...

Monday 15th January 2024

Australian Open - Day 3

Sunday was our first ‘live’ night of bets Down Under - and it was a positive one. A good start to a Grand Slam tournament always makes the sleep deprivation more tolerable…

We had three of our tournament outsiders in action on Day 2 (see below). And our 2/1 Match Winner treble came in.

Up and running…

On the Outright Winner front, these three big-odds Each Way picks all came through their 1st Round matches for us yesterday: Linda Noskova, Sebastian Korda, and Ben Shelton.

Noskova and Shelton were particularly impressive, both winning in straight sets against potentially tough opponents…

Shelton got himself going nicely against the battle-hardened veteran, Roberto Bautista-Agut.

While teenager Noskova started as the odds-against underdog v fellow Czech, Marie Bouzkova - but blew her away with a fine display of attacking tennis. Exactly what we want to see from a 19-year-old newcomer, looking to announce herself on the big stage. Noskova made a mockery of her previous 0-2 head-to-head record v Bouzkova - showing once again that when a new young player bursts onto the scene, the leap is so great, prior form and stats almost become irrelevant.

Teenage opinions…

In yesterday’s email I reeled off the names of a few 16-year-olds in the women’s draw. If you are wondering why I haven’t put up Ones to Watch in 2024 name, Mirra Andreeva, as an Aussie Open tournament bet for us: it comes purely down to price…

The Russian teenager went off at around 40/1 this weekend, and after winning her opening match this morning, Andreeva is now 33/1 at best. In comparison, we’re on 19-year-old Noskova at 100/1 and bigger. Betfred clearly weren’t as impressed by young Linda as me, as odds of 300/1 are still on the table. Elsewhere, Bet365 have now chopped Noskova to 80/1. With plenty of 100/1+ about elsewhere (including Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook at 150/1).

In the book so far…

After Noskova, Korda, and Shelton all won last night. The 1st Round completes on Day 3 tonight/ Tuesday morning with Qinwen Zheng, Jelena Ostapenko, and Holger Rune all in action. Caroline Wozniacki is already through to round 2.

  • View all our Australian Open 2024 Outright Winner picks so far in the Day 1 email on our website, here. And in the Day 2 email here, where we added another 100/1+ shot yesterday (Wozniacki)...

  • A note on Caroline Wozniacki, in case you missed her yesterday. 100/1 Outright is still available with Skybet, Boylesports, SpreadEx & Sporting Index. And Bet365 are 66/1 for Caro to Reach the Final - which will beat the Each Way place terms you’ll get with most firms (1/2 odds 1-2 places)

Match picks…

While the big-odds Each Way outsider picks are our flagship bets here at Ones to Watch. We’re also looking to make money from the busy daily schedule of matches…

After a winning 2/1 Match Winner treble yesterday. Here are four more women’s 1st Round picks, who I all fancy to win at the prices. The 4-fold acca pays 5/2 or better:

Daria Kasatkina to beat Peyton Stearns - college champ Stearns got a respectable nod in our pre-season 2024 report. But Kasatkina made the WTA Adelaide final last week - and holds a 2-0 head-to-head over the young American, with both victories coming last season, and in straight sets.

Lin Zhu to beat Oceane Dodin - Lin Zhu is closing in on a career-high Top 30 ranking, while Dodin sits at no.95. The Chinese player beat two opponents ranked higher than Dodin to reach the WTA Hobart quarter finals in the run-up to the Australian Open. Form and career momentum is with Zhu.

Victoria Azarenka to beat Camila Giorgi - two 30-something ladies who have been around a long time. Azarenka has had by far the more glittering career; indeed, Vika is the last woman to win back-to-back Aussie Open titles. The head-to-head for completed meetings is 2-1 to Azarenka, including both of their most recent clashes.

Emma Navarro to beat Xiyu Wang - another finalist from last week here, with 22-year-old Navarro winning a maiden WTA title, at Hobart. In doing so, the young American climbed to a new career-high of no.26 in the world. She’s won 8 out of 9 matches so far in 2024, beaten only by reigning US Open champion Coco Gauff. Fellow 22-year-old Wang is respected, and the world no.60 made the Auckland semis this month. But again, I want to be on the player bringing the greater confidence into Melbourne - and that’s Navarro.

Play starts at midnight…

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Ones to Watch picks - Australian Open:

Women’s 1st Round - Match Winners:

  • 4-Fold Acca: Kasatkina, Lin Zhu, Azarenka, Navarro to win @ 27/10 (3.7) Boylesports, 13/5 (3.6) William Hill, BetVictor, Betway, 5/2 (3.5) Bet365, LiveScoreBet 

Recommended bookies for Match Winner bets - read more here.

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You can watch the Australian Open live on Eurosport/ Discovery Plus.

I’ll be back by 5pm tomorrow with your Day 4 email…

Enjoy the tennis…

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch