Tennis Betting Advice - January 2024
Aus Open Day 14: Our 33/1 shot in the Women's Final...
Friday 26th January 2024
Australian Open - Day 14
The Australian Open 2024 men’s tournament is closing in on the record number of five-set matches…
After Daniil Medvedev’s gruelling yet enthralling, 3-2, comeback victory over Alexander Zverev in this morning’s men’s semi final. You can see why I like to back that five-set, go-to-the-wire Set Betting score.
Medvedev 3-2 paid 4/1+. Which is the same price that our one outstanding tournament pick, Qinwen Zheng, will go off at in tomorrow’s women’s final…
Having backed the Chinese 21-year-old at a best-price 33/1 Each Way on Day 1, we have a great ticket in hand here. Effectively 33/1 about a 4/1 shot, going into the championship match.
And it’s a classic Ones to Watch situation for us…
With our big-odds, young newcomer, Qinwen Zheng - looking to win a maiden Grand Slam title…
Taking on a short odds-on favourite in Aryna Sabalenka, who is the reigning Australian Open champion, and the current world no.2.
Qinwen Zheng will move into the Top 10 herself next week, whatever happens in the Rod Laver Arena on Saturday. But as I stated in our pre-season report, the upcoming Chinese star is ambitious - and she’ll want to put her name on the winner’s trophy…
If you like omens and suchlike, then it just so happens to be 10 years ago that Chinese sporting legend, Li Na, lifted this very title here on this famous Melbourne court - making history for her nation. Li Na has been in touch with Qinwen Zheng, and gave her some smart and direct advice: ‘Don’t think too much. Just go for it’.
In terms of our underdog bet. We are assured of a half-the-odds, Each Way place payout for reaching the final. With that 33/1 win-ticket holding all the excitement for us tomorrow morning…
I’ll be tuning in, that’s for sure. The players are due out on court at 8.30am or just after, UK time.
Nerves on show could mean a slow start…
In terms of advice for the final. Looking at it with the cold-blooded stance of an analyst, while also conceding that I don’t want to be rooting against our player too much here. I have one price recommendation for you today:
As I say every time at the business end of women’s Grand Slams. Nerves will play a part…
Qinwen Zheng started a bit slow in her quarter final and semi final matches - broken in her first service game on both occasions. Before regrouping, getting into the match, and finally letting her big game shine.
The Chinese player also lost her serve straight off the bat in her one previous meeting with ball-thumping, grunt-heavy Sabalenka. And that was in another big-stage encounter, at the US Open quarter finals 2023.
Odds-against prices appeal for the trophy favourite to start the stronger, and break her opponent at the earliest opportunity.
Various bookies call this market by different names…
For example, on Oddschecker, this bet is referred to as ‘Player A First Service Game Winner’ (with Qinwen Zheng as Player A).
And here’s how it looks with BetVictor, who have the best price on Sabalenka in this market, as I write:
For some reason, not all of the available options are listed on Oddschecker (don’t get me started). For instance, despite being absent from the odds comparison site’s page, the bet is indeed available at Bet365, and looks like this:
To confuse matters further (it’s like the bookies want this to be difficult…?). Unibet & other Kambi sportsbook sites word this one slightly differently again. With the option we want here being ‘Qinwen Zheng to win their first Service Game - No’:
And - if you’re still with me…
William Hill have the name of this bet different once more: ‘Qinwen Zheng To Be Broken’ in her ‘1st Set - 1st Service Game’:
Dear reader, I research all these markets, bookmakers, websites, and stats - on your behalf…
Enjoy the final…
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Ones to Watch picks - Australian Open:
Women’s Final
Qinwen Zheng v Aryna Sabalenka
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You can watch the Australian Open live on Eurosport/ Discovery Plus.
Play starts from 8.30am.
I’ll be back by 5pm tomorrow with your Day 15 email.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone