Australian Open: Here we go again...

Wednesday 28th January 2026

We’ve got Jessica Pegula through to the women’s semi finals tomorrow morning…

After 100/1 winner Madison Keys last January, and 33/1 Each Way runner-up Qinwen Zheng in 2024. For the third year running, we’re looking to get a big-price, Ones to Watch outsider pick into the Australian Open final…

Pegula has been in supreme form so far, despite not getting many headlines. The 31-year-old American is yet to drop a set. Winning all five of her matches in Melbourne so far this fortnight, 2-0.

Jess has now got to the semi finals in three of the last four hard-court Grand Slams.

The world no.6 was runner-up at the US Open in 2024. She’s through to her first semi final here at the Aussie Open. And the big aim is simple: the goal is to win a maiden Major title. Ideally, both for us and for Jess, that would be right here, right now, this weekend in the Rod Laver Arena.

From top prices of 40/1 and 33/1 on day one of the tournament, with those same odds on offer when we got involved a week ago today, after the 1st round. Pegula is now 8/1 at best to win the trophy. Price is on our side.

We’ve got our player in the book, Each Way - with a half-the-odds payout riding on Pegula to beat world no.5, Elena Rybakina on Thursday morning (around 10.30am, UK time).

Considering the head-to-head between our player and Rybakina is tied at 3-3, as we noted before backing the American last week. And keeping in mind, too, that this match-up is the world no.6 v the world no.5. You could argue that underdog odds of 7/4 (2.75) to win the semi final are a bit disrespectful to Pegula here. But we can’t control what the bookmakers think or do, any more than we can influence how the players perform on court…

What we can and do always do, is ensure we take the Outright prices that appeal to us. And in the big-odds pastures that we tread here at Ones to Watch, in terms of our tournament success (and profits) riding on particular players and outcomes - it only takes one…

If you’re on at 40/1 or 33/1 Each Way, then the place part of your bet gives you 20/1 or 16.5/1 for Pegula to beat Rybakina. That’s a good position on its own merit. And if Jess can get to the final for us, we’ll have a very large price and potential payout on our hands in the championship match.

I feel it’s been a tough tournament for us so far. But we’ve got a Ones to Watch pick in the semi finals at handsome odds - and a real chance to make the final. It only takes one…

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch