Tennis Betting Advice - July 2019
Wimbledon: Day Two – a 200/1 outsider…
Tuesday 2nd July 2019
Wimbledon - Bets of the Day
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day Two of your Wimbledon 2019 daily service.
I’ll be in your inbox by 8am every morning. And if you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email.
You can message me at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Shock treatment at 25,343/1…
We’ve set our stall out for Wimbledon. We have the same plan of attack as for any other Grand Slam. We’re going after big prices. We’re taking on the tournament favourites.
We want shocks & upsets. And day one was full of them…
Some big names fell. In the Women’s, World No.2 Naomi Osaka crashed out in a very flat display against Yulia Putintseva, who was a 7/4 (2.75) outsider for the match. The 16th seed Marketa Vondrousova lost to Madison Brengle at 9/2 (5.50).
That’s yet another example of the women’s Slams being wide open. Between them, Osaka and Vondrousova had appeared in each of the last three Major finals. This time they’ve gone out in the 1st Round.
Women’s No.23 seed Caroline Garcia was also sent packing, by 4/1 (5.00) match underdog Shuai Zhang. And 10th seed Aryna Sabalenka was beaten 2-0 by 7/4 (2.75) Magdalena Rybarikova.
A special mention goes to 15-year-old Cori Gauff, too. The American teenager beat five-time Wimbledon champion Venus Williams, at odds of 10/3 (4.33).
All five of those women’s upsets were delivered in straight sets, 2-0.
In the Men’s, two of the Top 10 were knocked out with young guns Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas coming undone to 10/3 (4.33) Jiri Vesely and 11/2 (6.50) Thomas Fabbiano respectively.
If anyone out there had a vision that came to them in a dream, the combined odds on those seven shocks was 25,343/1 (!).
We won’t be hunting down any prices quite that big. But the day one results were good news for us, even at this very early stage…
In the book…
In Monday’s email we got two women in the Outright Winner book at appealing Each Way prices – Madison Keys @ 25/1 and Petra Martic @ 50/1+. Both won their 1st Round matches yesterday.
And with Osaka (and Vondrousova & Garcia) now out of that bottom half of the draw, the potential route through for those two picks has become that bit simpler on paper.
As I write this morning, Keys is now around 18/1 or 20/1 in general, with Martic at 33/1 or 40/1 – and 50/1 available with 888 Sport & Unibet.
Ones to Watch…
Since the start of the year we’ve been building up a set of big prices for Wimbledon. View the full set here.
The most recent additions to our early Wimbledon ‘Ones to Watch’ were 100/1+ shots Dayana Yastremska and Magdalena Rybarikova. Both won through the 1st Round yesterday.
Yastremska and Rybarikova are also in the bottom half of the draw, with odds of 80/1 and 66/1 still available.
We’ll look at that part of the women’s draw again tomorrow when the next matches take place in that section – and we may have another bet or two to make.
Men’s Outright Winner…
With nine different winners from the last 10 Grand Slams – and six of them first time champions – we’re deliberately targeting the Women’s Outright Winner market.
We have to tread a little more carefully with our big-price picks in the Men’s. In the last 16 years – since 2003 – only four names have been on the Wimbledon trophy. And they’re the Big Four of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray.
Injury troubles have ruled Murray out of the Singles this year, but the others make up the top three in the Wimbledon 2019 betting – with Djokovic this morning priced at 11/10 (2.10), Federer 3/1 (4.00) and Nadal 7/1 (8.00).
On the other hand, it’s not all about the short prices and favourites…
In the last three years we’ve seen consecutive ‘outsider’ Men’s finalists at SW19, finishing runner-up for half-the-odds place payouts:
2016 – Milos Raonic (14/1)
2017 – Marin Cilic (28/1)
2018 – Kevin Anderson (50/1)
We were on both Cilic and Anderson as ‘Ones to Watch’ in the last two years. Let’s see if we can sniff out a profitable men’s underdog this time…
Sam Querrey @ 200/1
The bottom half of the men’s draw gets underway today. Nadal is favourite in Quarter 3 and Federer is the name to beat in Quarter 4. For an outsider at a massive price, World No.65 Sam Querrey ticks a few boxes at 200/1 and 150/1…
Like Anderson last year, Querrey is at the post-30 age in his career when stacks of experience can combine with some now-or-never motivation to make the big push at a Grand Slam. Anderson was 32 when we backed him at Wimbledon last summer. Querrey is 31 and shares other similarities with the South African – namely a tall frame and a booming serve…
Sam has done well here at Wimbledon before. The American made the semi finals in 2017, and the quarter finals in 2016.
Since the start of 2016 he’s won 24 out of 35 matches on grass (69%). Including a run to the Eastbourne final as a 25/1 shot last week (runner-up).
Querrey is in Quarter 3. His potential run through the draw is a tantalising one. On paper it largely hinges on today’s 1st Round match v World No.4 and French Open runner-up, Dominic Thiem. The Austrian is the biggest name and highest ranked player in Querrey’s path until the quarter final stage. Thiem is not at his best on grass. His pro career match record on turf is in the negative at won 14 lost 15 (48%). In four out of five previous visits to Wimbledon he’s gone out in the 1st or 2nd Round.
If Sam can get through that match this afternoon, then his path for the following three rounds would look in his favour…
Querrey is around 7/5 (2.40) to beat Thiem today, and around 22/1 to win Quarter 3. I prefer to take the biggest possible price, with odds of 200/1 and 150/1 in the Outright Winner market offering the potential to trade should Querrey put a run together here.
Wimbledon – Men’s
BET: Sam Querrey @ 200/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 200/1 Boylesports, 888 Sport, Unibet, 150/1 Bet365, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power
Staking: Unless otherwise stated, all our Outright Winner bets are 1 point Each Way (total stake 2 pts). All other Win Only bets are 1 point.
The Rollover – bet No.2…
Alongside our daily & tournament picks, we’ll be looked to profit from Wimbledon with our Rollover bet…
The aim is to roll a £10 stake over with match winner selections, cashing-out when we get to the £100 mark. I believe that’s an achievable target. We’re not reaching for the stars. We did it in May. And this feature adds some extra excitement to our tennis coverage.
After £10 on bet No.1 won @ 2/7 (1.28) yesterday with Feliciano Lopez beating Marcos Giron (6-4, 6-2, 6-4), we have £12.85 going on Rollover bet No.2 today, with the match scheduled for around 1pm:
Anisimova is an exciting young player and one that I’m keen to watch at this tournament. The 17-year-old won her first WTA title earlier this year, then followed that up by announcing herself on the big stage with a fantastic run to the French Open semi finals. She’s up to No.26 in the rankings, and looked good in her opening couple of matches on grass in Mallorca last month.
Today’s opponent Cirstea has a losing career record on grass (won 27 lost 29). And the current World No.77 hasn’t played a competitive match on the turf since going out in the 2nd Round at Wimbledon a year ago.
This is the second match on Court 17, and it should be on from around 1pm.
Anisimova is 1/4 (1.25) with Bet365, William Hill, Betway, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet.
I’ll be back tomorrow at 8am with your Bets of the Day for Wednesday, including a further look at some big prices in the Outright Winner markets.
Enjoy the tennis…