Tennis Betting Advice - July 2022
Wimbledon: Day 13 – Women’s Final…
Saturday 9th July 2022
Welcome to Day 13 of your Wimbledon 2022 Daily Service.
Good morning. The tournament is going to end in a heatwave. There are few more iconic images in sport than the yellowed-green, sun-scorched grass of Centre Court.
The women’s final takes place this afternoon. The players are due on court at 2pm…
Women’s Final – Elena Rybakina v Ons Jabeur
We’re firmly rooting for one player here, and that’s our Wimbledon 2022 ante-post pick, Ons Jabeur.
As we’ve discussed, if you’re on Ons at big prices from back in the spring, then you have a great ticket in your pocket. And an Each Way payout is already in the bag.
If you’re new to Ones to Watch for Wimbledon and therefore, joined after the Jabeur advice had been issued at 40/1 & 33/1 back in April. Then I’d urge you to have a read of yesterday’s email, if you haven’t already…
Friday’s article explains how we play the long-term game in the tennis markets. And also includes details of two early-bird picks for this summer’s upcoming US Open.
Head-to-Head…
Back to today’s big match. The pundits are billing Rybakina v Jabeur as a clash of styles. The tall, big-serving Rybakina, full of easy power. Against the crafty, skilled, super-talented ball player, Jabeur.
One thing I’d been keen to add to those widely-held assessments is that the Tunisian also has a fair bit of hitting power of her own. Whereas an out-of-sorts Simona Halep couldn’t handle Elena’s big hitting in the semi final. Ons has the oomph in her arm to deliver some deep blows herself.
And if our player’s game is on song, Jabeur can move Rybakina all over the court, side to side and back to front. Weaving a web that can exploit and test the movement of the 6’0” Kazakhstan representative.
This match is the world no.23 v the world no.2. The 23-year-old Rybakina would usually expect to enjoy a surge up the rankings after a big run to a debut Grand Slam final. But seeing as Wimbledon has been stripped of its ranking points this year, that won’t be happening. The 27-year-old Jabeur has climbed to a career-high of no.2, on the back of a brilliant first half of the season.
These two have met a couple of times before. In completed matches, the head-to-head is tied at 1-1. And both encounters went the distance to three sets:
2021, WTA Dubai (hard courts) – 2nd Round:
Jabeur beat Rybakina 7-6, 4-6, 6-2
2019, WTA Wuhan (hard courts) – 2nd Round:
Rybakina beat Jabeur 6-1, 6-7, 6-2
If we can read anything into those previous meetings, it’s that this could a be tight contest today. If either player makes a particularly slow or nervous start (and this is a maiden Major final for both women, so that could well be the case) – then there will still be time to get into the match and mount a comeback in the second set…
The Match Winner prices have our player as the favourite today:
Rybakina 13/10 (2.3)
Jabeur 4/6 (1.67)
In the Total Sets market, 3 Sets can be backed at around 11/8 (2.38). With the Set Betting options pricing the individual three-sets wins as Jabeur 2-1 at 3/1 (4.0), and Rybakina 2-1 at 4/1 (5.0).
Serving stats…
Not for the first time in a big match at a Grand Slam, I’m looking to the Serving stats to unearth a bit of matchday value…
Wimbledon 2022 – ACES:
Wimbledon 2022 – DOUBLE FAULTS:
Going on those numbers, then Rybakina should be the clear favourite for the Most Aces today, and also the frontrunner for the Most Double Faults. This morning’s markets reflect that.
However, the tournament totals only tell us so much. Digging a little deeper, things get interesting…
In their two previous meetings, Jabeur has won the Most Aces, 5-1, and 3-2. The Double Faults tallies in those head-to-head clashes have been a 5-5 tie, and 5-2 to Rybakina. Now, neither of those matches were played on grass, or even this year. But those match stats do suggest that the Tunisian might be able to handle Elena’s big weapon here, getting her racket on more serves than some opponents do…
Another thing that makes the serving markets interesting to me from an underdog perspective here is that when we look at ‘Aces Against’ – a stat category that I’ve constructed myself during this morning’s research. Then it shows that Rybakina has been aced several times more than Jabeur during this Wimbledon fortnight:
Aces AGAINST – Rybakina 17, Jabeur 4
A look at the opponents faced confirms that the younger player has definitely faced more big servers than Ons. With Elena coming up against the likes of Coco Vandeweghe (8 Aces), and Qinwen Zheng (5 Aces). While Rybakina is ranked 1st on the WTA Aces chart for 2022, Jabeur is also in the Top 10, and is definitely in the category of a ‘good server.’
It’s also worth pointing out that Jabeur didn’t serve any Double Faults at all through the first four rounds here. With her tally coming in the last two matches, 2 in the quarter final, and 2 in the semi final. You could argue that Ons’ nerves have kicked in as the stakes have been raised. But a couple of Double Faults is hardly a collapse (unlike the 9 we saw from Halep in the semi v Rybakina).
Conversely, Rybakina has only delivered one Double Fault across the last three rounds. She’s been getting tidier in that department, as the matches have gotten bigger. A first ever Grand Slam final is a different beast, of course. But I’m reading these stats as that we could see a low Double Faults tally in the match. Bet365 go 11/10 (2.1) for Under 4.5 Total Faults in the match. I prefer the bigger price for the Double Faults ‘Tie’ – with odds of 5/1 (6.0) and 9/2 (5.5) available.
And with the bookies making Jabeur the underdog for the Most Aces at 11/4 (3.75) and 5/2 (3.5). These are the two off-the-beaten-track bets for me…
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Ones to Watch picks – Wimbledon:
Elena Rybakina v Ons Jabeur
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I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Wimbledon Day 14 email, looking at the men’s final – Novak Djokovic v Nick Kyrgios.
P.S
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson