Tennis Betting Advice - July 2022
Ones to Watch in Palermo - at 20/1 and 33/1...
Sunday 17th July 2022
Keep on rollin'…
Good evening. It was an eventful Sunday afternoon…
For the third tournament in a row, we had to make do with a runner-up in a final, and the consolation prize of an Each Way payout…
Our 20/1 shot Sebastian Baez missed out in the ATP Bastad final.
That follows on from our 40/1 Wimbledon runner-up Ons Jabeur. And before that, 40/1 Eastbourne finalist Maxime Cressy.
Of course, a half-the-odds payout for reaching the final makes it a profitable pursuit for us. But still, that’s seven out of eight finals this season where our Ones to Watch contender has come close to landing us the big prize, only to be pipped at the post. The one that did win the final? Taylor Fritz at 100/1. Betting can be a funny business…
In the right ballpark…
As far as my tennis tournament picks go, close-but-no-cigar usually runs alongside being ‘in the right ballpark’...
A case in point in the week just gone being Petra Martic. The Croatian has just won the WTA Lausanne title - less than a fortnight after we backed her at big odds at Wimbledon. (And the player that beat Martic at SW19 was Elena Rybakina… who went on to lift that Grand Slam trophy).
The key difference here is of course the price. At Wimbledon, we took 50/1 for Martic. At Lausanne, she was 16/1 at best.
And as I write this evening, Maxime Cressy has just won his first career main-tour title, lifting the trophy at the Hall of Fame Open in Newport, USA. In what was his very next ATP tournament after finishing runner-up for us at Eastbourne last month. Again, the price drop is telling. At Eastbourne, we obtained 40/1. In the States this week, Cressy was 9/1 and shorter.
Cressy becomes the 9th first-time ATP title winner in 2022. The WTA Tour has seen four maiden trophy wins, too. And I’m putting up a 33/1 youngster to join that breakthrough club this week. See below. But first, back to betting being a strange ol’ thing…
A whole different ball game…
There’s me busting a gut and spending dozens of hours covering Wimbledon every day for two solid weeks… and then in one short & sweet paragraph last week, I managed to nail a 28/1 winner… on the golf (!).
Were you on The Open winner, Cameron Smith? And/ or for that matter, our 20/1 Each Way tennis pick, Sebastian Baez? As always, I’d love to hear from you. Sometimes the inbox goes very quiet - good or bad - and I can tire of my own voice…
Email me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Ones to Watch this week…
The tennis tours roll on with four more tournaments this week:
ATP 250 Gstaad - EFG Swiss Open Gstaad - Clay
ATP 500 Hamburg - Hamburg European Open - Clay
WTA 250 Hamburg - Hamburg European Open - Clay
WTA 250 Palermo - 33rd Palermo Ladies' Open - Clay
I’ve got two picks to kick us off this week. We’re making our first moves for the women’s event in Italy, WTA Palermo…
JASMINE PAOLINI is a player I’ve put up at decent odds as a worthy underdog before. The 26-year-old Italian won her first WTA full-level title last year. Adding to a batch of lower-tier ITF silverware that she already had in the cabinet, including three titles won on clay at home here in Italy. At Palermo, Paolini has shown signs of having the potential to go deep in her two visits to date, including a quarter-final showing here in 2019.
A 1st-round defeat in Switzerland last week can be overlooked, as there was no shame in losing to an in-form Caroline Garcia. Jasmine is the kind of player that can spring into form out of nowhere, and raise her game for a big occasion. She’s also more than happy to knuckle down for a long three-set scrap when needed. Anything to get the win. Odds of 20/1 make Paolini one to follow in her homeland this week.
In the opposite half of the Palermo draw, 19-year-old debutante DIANE PARRY is one to keep an eye on at big prices. Odds of 33/1 tick that box. The French teenager has caught my eye on more than one occasion this year. I like her game. She looks to have a bit of class about her play, as well as the physical attributes to compete on the main tour from here on in.
Last season, Parry won four tournaments - all on clay. Including an ITF trophy in Italy. And a WTA lower-grade event in Uruguay, which was just one rung below the full WTA Tour grading which starts at 250-level, which is the status of Palermo this week.
Both Paolini and Parry are at their best on clay. This tournament looks a good opportunity for both to excel this week, with underdog prices on the table.
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Ones to Watch picks:
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
WTA Palermo – 33rd Palermo Ladies' Open
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Play starts in Palermo at 3pm Monday, UK time. Bookies take down their Outright Winner markets during the day’s play.
P.S
Remember, if you want to get in touch. Email me at:
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson