Tennis Betting Advice - July 2022

Quarter-finals day - and Atlanta trophy pointers...

Friday 22nd July 2022

Good morning. A little story to kick us off today…

The ol’ Palermo one-two…

It occurred to me last night that this week’s event in Palermo was also the first WTA tournament to be played, when the tours returned after the initial coronavirus-enforced ‘shutdown’ in 2020.

That comeback event also turned out to be one of our best-ever, best-case-scenario results for our Ones to Watch picks.

I remember that at the time, I was just glad that the tennis was back. Little did I realise then that Christmas 2020 would be effectively ‘cancelled,’ and those winter lockdowns would be the toughest time of the whole pandemic for many. Here in England, the January – April lockdown of 2021 was definitely the longest drag for me.

At WTA Palermo 2020, which was held in the first week of August. We took one of our often-deployed Ones to Watch betting tactics. Backing a player from each side of the draw in the Outright Winner market.

That plan turned out great for us, with our two picks going all the way, and meeting each other in the final. 25/1 shot Fiona Ferro lifted the trophy, and 12/1 selection Anett Kontaveit finished runner-up for an Each Way payout.

As someone who prides themselves on having a good memory, I’m surprised it took me until Thursday this week to realise we’re on the hunt for something similar once again here in Sicily…

In the top half of the WTA Palermo 2022 draw, we’re on Italy’s Jasmine Paolini at a top price of 20/1 Each Way. And in the bottom half, we’re on French teenager Diane Parry at 33/1.

Both women are through to the quarter finals which take place this afternoon and this evening.

  • Our players will be on court from 4.30pm onwards, UK time. The matches are being shown live on Amazon Prime Video. And also, via live streaming on selected bookie websites, such as Bet365

In this morning’s revised outright market, Paolini is now trading at just 5/1 for the trophy, with Parry at 10/1. As is always the intention, we’re already on at bigger prices. Now we wait to see if one or both of our players can do the business out on court.

Parry landed us an Even-money (2.0) match payout on Tuesday, beating Lauren Davis 7-6, 6-2. The 19-year-old then had one of the best wins of her young career on Thursday, knocking out 2nd seed Yulia Putintseva, 6-3, 6-4. Parry was just over 2/1 (3.0+) to win that one.

Paolini posted an impressive 6-3, 6-1 victory over Anna-Karolina Schmiedlova on Monday. The 26-year-old Italian hasn’t actually played since then, as her Last 16 opponent Shuai Zhang withdrew injured (fatigue). That meant our player got a pass through to the quarter finals.

In today’s Match Winner betting, the bookies make it that we’ve got one favourite and one underdog running for us:

  • Paolini is 4/7 (1.57) at best to beat 8th seed Nuria Parrizas-Diaz. While Parry goes off as the outsider for the third match in a row this week, priced at 6/4 (2.5) against 6th seed Irina Begu

Our players are both unseeded, so on paper at least, Paolini and Parry have already outstripped their pre-tournament odds by getting this far.

Reaching the business end of the competition is what we’re always hoping and aiming for. We’ve got two picks in the Palermo quarter finals today. And next week, there are five more events for us to go to work on…

Atlanta trophy pointers…

Here's next week’s tournament schedule, all starting on Monday, 25th July:

WTA 250 Warsaw – BNP Parisbas Poland Open – Clay

WTA 250 PragueLiveSport Prague Open 2022 – Hard

ATP 250 Umag – Plava Laguna Croatia Open Umag – Clay

ATP 250 Kitzbuhel – Generali Open – Clay

ATP 250 AtlantaAtlanta Open – Hard

The men’s event in Atlanta is one that I’m certainly keen to take a look at…

There’s a rich history of ‘home’ players doing well at the Atlanta Open. With a decade-plus roster that is saturated with American winners and finalists:

ATP Atlanta – since 2010:

[Tournament not played in 2020]

  • 11 out of 11 years – at least one American player in the final
  • 9 out of 11 – American winner
  • 4 of last 11 – all-American final

John Isner accounts for a sizeable chunk of that USA-heavy roll-call. A graduate of the University of Georgia, he likes it in these parts. Big John’s Atlanta formbook is formidable:

  • Isner has made the Atlanta final 9 times in 11 visits – winning the title on 6 occasions

Now, you don’t need to be a genius to predict that the big-serving, 6’10” American will be one of the favourites to lift the trophy again next week…

I keep records going back to summer 2015 with the day-one tournament Outright Winner prices. Here’s how John Isner’s Atlanta Open odds have looked over the years:

2021 – Isner 6/1 (won). Fellow American, Brandon Nakashima runner-up (12/1)

2018 – Isner 3/1 (won). Fellow American, Ryan Harrison runner-up (18/1)

2017 – Isner 3/1 (won). Fellow American, Ryan Harrison runner-up (12/1)

2016 – Isner 3/1 (runner-up). Australian, Nick Kyrgios won (10/3)

2015 – Isner 11/4 (won). Cypriot, Marcos Baghdatis runner-up (16/1)

The early takeaway points here: we should be on the lookout for an American contender or two that could go well in Atlanta next week. John Isner, despite now being 37 years of age, is likely to go off as one of the favourites, at single-figure quotes. But as that list above suggests, we might do well to target a player at bigger odds, Each Way, with the chance of a decent payout for reaching the final.

That’s just one of the five tournaments that I’ll be keeping a close eye on over the next few days…

Play starts on Monday…

I’ll be back with our first selections for next week’s tournaments in time for kick-off on Monday. Depending on the markets and timings, I’m aiming to put together that article on Sunday night/ first thing Monday, so it will be in your inbox ready for Monday morning.

P.S
As always, if you’d like to get in touch, feel free to email me at:

tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch