Tennis Betting Advice - July 2023
Wimbledon Day 4: Thursday acca - and a 50/1 dark horse...
Thursday 6th July 2023
Welcome to your Wimbledon 2023 Daily Service - Day 4…
Good morning. We had tennis right up until the 11pm curfew last night…
The match between our match pick Laslo Djere and serve & volley specialist Maxime Cressy got moved to under the lights (and roof) on Court 1. Djere held his concentration and played brilliantly to win through in a series of tiebreak sets, 6-7, 7-6, 7-6, 7-6.
Earlier in the day, a close match went against us, with Alexei Popyrin losing a five-setter as the underdog v Dominic Stricker. Popyrin had a 4-1 lead in the deciding set, but Stricker reeled him in at the death, taking the match 3-6, 6-3, 6-2, 4-6, 7-5. Small margins, as they say…
Our other men’s 6/5 Match Winner pick has to wait until this morning to finally get out on court to play his 1st round match. Mercifully, the rain looks to be easing up at last. We should see some sunshine at SW19, especially on Friday. Arthur Fils takes on Spain’s Alejandro Davidovich Fokina today, with the French teenager our underdog choice there.
Wednesday’s seven-fold 7/1 women’s acca is alive and kicking, with four legs ticked off so far - and the other three matches bumped to today’s schedule…
Beatriz Haddad Maia to beat Yulia Putintseva - Won
Jelena Ostapenko to beat Greet Minnen - Won
Mirra Andreeva to beat Xiyu Wang - Won
Madison Keys to beat Sonay Kartel - Won
Victoria Azarenka to beat Nadia Podoroska - Plays today
Katerina Siniakova to beat Lesia Tsurenko - Plays today
Sofia Kenin to beat Xinyu Wang - Plays today
On the Outright Winner front: Taylor Fritz, Petra Kvitova, and Anastasia Potapova all joined Andy Murray in progressing to the 2nd round for us. With Karolina Muchova still waiting to take to the court for her rain-delayed 1st round match.
Along with that handful of live contenders, I’ve got a stack of players in my notes as ‘maybes’ for the Each Way bet-book. We can’t back them all. But I’m monitoring the form and results daily, and keeping an eye on how the draws may pan out. There are any number of permutations from here of course, with the 2nd round still to be completed, and week two to come. But the idea is to latch on to one or two more appealing outsiders at attractive odds…
The most obvious of predictions…
In the realm of the favourites, the bookies’ Name the Finalists markets paint as clear a picture as you’ll need. If anyone asks you who’s going to be in the finals, then a sensible, sitting on the fence answer would be:
Carlos Alcaraz v Novak Djokovic in the men’s. That final is a general 7/5 (2.4) shot.
And in the women’s, Iga Swiatek v Elena Rybakina/ Aryna Sabalenka. With those two combinations available at around 5/1 (6.0) each.
Those solid but hardly inspired ‘predictions’ would see you following the Top 2 players in the men’s world rankings, and covering the Top 3 in the women’s. There’s nothing wrong with backing the cream to rise to the top. But favourite-heavy betting like that gives absolutely no margin for error, and likely requires chunky staking in order to make the pursuit worthwhile.
Big prices are way more fun…
Rather than sweating on the likes of Rybakina or Sabalenka to win their next five matches in order to reach the final - just to get one half of a 5/1 Name the Finalists combo correct. The Ones to Watch way is to trust in the unexpected, go on the side of the shocks and upsets, and look to get ahead of the curve by backing players at much more exciting and rewarding prices…
For example, we’ve already got Anastasia Potapova in the book as a 100/1+ outsider in the women’s Outright Winner market. It hadn’t really occurred to me until my colleague pointed it out - driven as I am by price and player-potential, rather than politics. But backing a Russian to win Wimbledon is an unfashionable route to take right now I guess. And that’s okay with me.
We do our own thing…
And if you were with me in recent seasons when the likes of Iga Swiatek or Taylor Fritz landed the odds for us at 100/1, then you’ll know how great that feels…
Sticking to our game, then. The area I feel most likely to provide a big-odds breakout player here at Wimbledon this year is the bottom half of the women’s draw, which contains Rybakina and Sabalenka - and avoids world no.1 Swiatek. We’ve already got Potapova at massive prices to reach the final from this section, along with 33/1 or 25/1 for the 22-year-old Russian to reach the semis (Win the 4th Quarter of the draw).
There are a few other big-odds outsiders for us to consider in this side of the ladies' drawsheet, too…
We talked about former Wimbledon semi-finalist Jelena Ostapenko the other day. Bet365 have taken a stance on the Latvian, upping their price to 40/1, while the general industry line is more like 25/1.
Ostapenko could meet Beatriz Haddad Maia in the 3rd round. The Brazilian has won 14 out of 18 matches on grass since the start of June last year, and recently announced herself on the Major stage by reaching last month’s French Open semi finals. Haddad Maia is 0-4 against Ostapenko. But if those two do meet in the next few days, I’d expect an almighty tussle. Beatriz is a best-price 70/1 with Unibet & BetUK, 66/1 Bet365 and Betfred.
Last year we backed Anhelina Kalinina at 250/1. The Ukrainian is a 500/1 rank outsider this time, and is still waiting to play her 1st round match today. Another Ukrainian, Marta Kostyuk, plays Paula Badosa tomorrow; those two are both 200/1 shots right now.
Grass-court form at 50/1…
Another Russian to consider in this half of the draw, along with our pick Potapova, is Ekaterina Alexandrova. The 28-year-old has never been past the 2nd round at Wimbledon, and is yet to get further than the 3rd round in any of the four Grand Slams. That’s admittedly a historical concern on the mental-toughness front: because if players were emotionless robots and not humans, Alexandrova’s big-hitting game and strong first serve would certainly mark her out as a dark-horse contender…
The right-hander has won 14 out of 16 matches on grass since the start of June 2022, including back-to-back trophy wins at WTA ‘s-Hertogenbosch in the Netherlands…
Along with that grass-court record, another positive is Ekaterina’s record against a couple of the strong names in this section of the draw. Alexandrova holds a 5-2 career head-to-head stat over our pick Karolina Muchova, although they’ve yet to meet on grass. And a 3-2 record against one of the big favourites, Aryna Sabalenka - coming out on top in their last two encounters, including a victory on grass last June.
Alexandrova is 50/1 with Unibet & BetUK, and 40/1 elsewhere - day-one prices that have held despite a convincing 2-0 win in the 1st round. As with another of our recent Russian ‘dark horse’ women’s picks, Liudmila Samsonova (lost on a windy court in the 1st round), Alexandrova is ranked Top 10 on the WTA stats for Most Aces this season. Along with a noteworthy 70% record for 1st Serve Points Won.
Let’s add the world no.22 to our against-the-grain bet-list today. Meaning we’ve now targeted this side of the women’s draw with a decent array of big-odds selections: Petra Kvitova, Karolina Muchova, Anastasia Potapova - and Ekaterina Alexandrova.
Match Picks - Day 4…
Last but not least for today, a seven-fold match acca for us. Paying 9/1 at Skybet…
Quentin Halys to beat Aleksandar Vukic
Alexander Bublik to beat J.J.Wolf
Michael Mmoh to beat Maximilian Marterer
David Goffin to beat Tomas Barrios Vera
Frances Tiafoe to beat Dominic Stricker
Taylor Fritz to beat Mikael Ymer
Beatriz Haddad Maia to beat Jaqueline Cristian
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Ones to Watch picks - Wimbledon:
Women’s Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Match Winner:
Other recommended bookies for Match Winner bets: Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway. Read more about Match Winner bets & bookie rules here.
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Play starts at 11am.
I’ll be back at 8am Friday with your Wimbledon Day 5 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone