Tennis Betting Advice - July 2023

Wimbledon Day 10: Quarter Final picks at 69/1...

Wednesday 12th July 2023

Wimbledon 2023 Daily Service - Day 10

From 40/1 to 6/1 in one afternoon…

I take little pleasure in saying it. But Jessica Pegula’s Grand Slam quarter-final woes continue…

The American no.1 has now lost six out of six Major quarter finals. It has to now be considered a mental block. Something we discussed at length in yesterday’s analysis

Pegula led 4-1 in the final set. But our Ones to Watch pick Marketa Vondrousova did exactly what you want a title contender to do: raise her game when it really mattered…

Vondrousova won five games in a row to seal the match. Completing a 6-4, 2-6, 6-4 comeback victory. Booking her place in a second career Grand Slam semi final - and a first at Wimbledon.

The world no.42 started the tournament as a 150/1 rank outsider, with a negative career win-loss record on grass. Marketa has turned that SW19 form on its head.

We backed the 24-year-old Czech at 40/1 or 33/1 on the middle Sunday…

After Elina Svitolina pulled off a shock by knocking out world no.1 and bookies’ favourite Iga Swiatek in yesterday’s other quarter final in this side of the women’s draw, the Outright Winner market has been blown open:

Vondrousova was still available at 40/1 and 33/1 yesterday morning. By the end of the day, our pick was trading at 6/1 at best, and 5/1 in general.

Svitolina also started the tournament at 100/1+, with Bet365 going 200/1 before the start of play on Day 1. The Ukrainian world no.76 is now 5/1 for the title.

The trend continues…

With Vondrousova and Svitolina facing off in Thursday’s semi final, that means yet another women’s Grand Slam will see a pre-tournament 100/1 shot competing for the trophy.

Franking the trend that we highlighted on the eve of the tournament:

  • The last 11 women's Grand Slam finals have featured 8 players at odds of 100/1+. That figure will now rise to 9 players from 12 finals

And if Vondrousova, Svitolina, Ons Jabeur, or Madison Keys go on to become Wimbledon champion this weekend. It will be a maiden Major singles title for either of those four:

  • 16 of the last 30 women's Grand Slams have been won by players lifting a Major trophy for the first time

Reigning Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina is now the 2/1 favourite. Followed by this year’s Australian Open winner Aryna Sabalenka at 3/1.

Today’s quarter-final schedule…

Centre Court, from 1.30pm:

Ons Jabeur v Elena Rybakina
A re-match of last year’s Wimbledon women’s final, which Rybakina won 2-1, after losing the first set. Jabeur has made no secret of the fact that she’s here to claim the title this time…

Carlos Alcaraz v Holger Rune
The headline match of the day. World no.1 Alcaraz against world no.6 Rune. The first time in the Open era that a men’s Grand Slam quarter final has been contested by two players under the age of 21…

Court 1, from 1pm:

Madison Keys v Aryna Sabalenka
World no.2 Sabalenka is the favourite. Keys is on a nine-match winning streak on grass this summer, and won their previous meeting on turf by two sets to one at WTA Berlin in 2021. Both women have been known to let nerves get to them in big moments - especially Keys - and this is certainly a big match…

Daniil Medvedev v Chris Eubanks
Medvedev started the tournament as a 20/1 shot, which in hindsight might end up looking a good price for the world no.3. Eubanks has been the underdog story of the tournament. The American is on a nine-match streak on grass, having lifted a first career ATP title at Mallorca last month, before going on to produce this remarkable outsider run at SW19. This is the first Wimbledon quarter-final appearance for Medvedev. And a first Grand Slam QF anywhere for Eubanks, who started the tournament at 500/1. He’s still 50/1 now…

That’s a pretty exciting line-up for this afternoon. One that could take us into the evening if the men’s matches end up going long to four or five sets.

As with yesterday, we have a Ones to Watch player going into a quarter-final at underdog prices…

Holger Rune went in the book for us at 50/1 or 40/1, and was subsequently flagged-up at 66/1 with a couple of firms. The 20-year-old Dane is now 28/1 to win a first Grand Slam title this weekend.

Our boy is priced as the 3/1 outsider to beat world no.1 Alcaraz today. Holger won’t care what the oddsmakers think. After finding out his opponent, Rune said he’s not scared - he’s excited. That’s what you want to hear from a player…

As I said yesterday, both these 20-year-olds are the real deal. Should be a great match. Might even be a Wimbledon classic…

My score-line predictions…

Both of yesterday’s men’s matches saw the favourite prevail by three sets to one. While both of Tuesday’s women’s quarter finals saw the underdog come through in the full three sets…

Here are my score-line picks for today’s encounters. With the Set Betting market offering significantly greater returns than the standard Match Winner prices…

The advice: three singles. And for bigger odds and smaller stakes, half a point on the treble at 69/1

Best prices with Ladbrokes & Coral:

Sabalenka to win 2-1 v Keys @ 29/10 (3.9)
I have to be with world no.2 Sabalenka to pull rank and find a way through this one. Former US Open runner-up Keys has to be respected though, especially with her 2023 grass-court form in mind. Could get tense this one, with short rallies as both women go for hard-and-fast, one-or-two-strike tennis. Sabalenka in three is my pick…

Jabeur to win 2-1 v Rybakina @ 4/1 (5.0)
I still have my doubts as to whether Jabeur can go the whole way and win the trophy, but she’s certainly settled back in on Centre Court this week - and this has all the makings of a revenge mission. Rybakina can be expected to remain poker-faced and quietly go about her big-hitting business. But with all respect to her opponents thus far, the defending champ has yet to come up against a serious challenger this fortnight. Jabeur might just have the magic in her…

Medvedev to win 3-1 v Eubanks @ 13/5 (3.6)
Eubanks made a few errors against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the last round, but got away with them. Medvedev is more likely to punish any mistakes today, and can show his Grand Slam nous here. Eubanks will need to continue to serve like a monster to stay in this…

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Ones to Watch picks - Wimbledon:

See above for full details

Set Betting:

  • Sabalenka to win 2-1 v Keys @ 29/10 (3.9) Ladbrokes, Coral, 11/4 (3.75) and 13/5 (3.6) in general  

  • Jabeur to win 2-1 v Rybakina @ 4/1 (5.0) Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, Unibet, 7/2 (4.5) in general

  • Medvedev to win 3-1 v Eubanks @ 13/5 (3.6) Ladbrokes, Coral, 12/5 (3.4) in general  

  • Treble: Sabalenka 2-1, Jabeur 2-1, Medvedev 3-1 @ 69/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, 60/1 Betfred, 50/1+ in general

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I’ll be back on Thursday morning with your Day 11 email.

  • You can view every email in the archive on your members-only website here

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch