Wimbledon: A 28-Clubber and a Dark Horse...

Thursday 3rd July 2025

This year’s Wimbledon women’s draw is looking as wide open as ever…

In the build-up to the tournament we’ve discussed the big recent trend for massive-odds finalists and champions at the women’s Grand Slams, and at Wimbledon in particular. Read more here.

With the 2025 event just three days in, and half of the 2nd round matches still to be played today, four of the top five women’s seeds have already been knocked out…

The early carnage has included world no.2 Coco Gauff and no.3 Jessica Pegula both sent packing in the 1st round. That pair of Americans were in the bottom half of the draw, where we have 22-year-old Clara Tauson in the book as a 100/1+ outsider.

I want us to add two more selections in this side of the draw today; a section that already looked the most attackable from an underdog-hunting perspective (world no.1 Aryna Sabalenka is in the opposite half)...

Now that Gauff in particular is gone from this part of the draw-sheet - a multiple Grand Slam champion no longer in contention this fortnight. We want to be looking to get behind Ones to Watch names who still have plenty of oomph in their odds, even with the bookies revising the Outright prices after those Top 5 seed exits…

Bencic in The 28 Club…

BELINDA BENCIC got a strong write-up from me in March of this year, highlighted as a ‘Mum on Tour’ showing promising form in this second wave of her career (read the article here)…

Bencic is also now a member of ‘The 28 Club’ - and as I discussed earlier this year (here), the mixture of maturity and experience that can come at age 28 in elite sports, along with a potential physical peak, can make a player in this bracket one to look out for in terms of making a new leap forward.    

A good few years ago now - and before becoming a mother - Bencic featured often in my big-odds Ones to Watch selections for the annual Grand Slams. Here at Wimbledon, Belinda has made week two (round of last 16) on three previous occasions, including her most recent visit to SW19 in 2023.

An overall career grass-court match win-loss record of 57-27 puts the Swiss world no.35 at 68%. If you’re a long-time follower of Ones to Watch then you’ll know that our ears prick up when we find tournament outsiders with a figure around the 70% mark on the playing surface in question. Bencic has won one grass title before - Eastbourne 2017 was in fact her first ever WTA title.

Looking at the 2025 Wimbledon draw, as open as it now is, I can see Bencic carving her way through the next couple of rounds - and from then on, she won’t be an 80/1 or 66/1 shot anymore.

• Note: Unibet & co are offering 100/1, but the caveat there is they’ve been known to only accept the tiniest of stakes (pennies in some circumstances, from what I’ve heard from some of you). The advice as ever being: get on at the best price that you can. Bookies listed below

Samsonova a Dark Horse…

LIUDMILA SAMSONOVA got the Ones to Watch treatment at the start of June, earmarked as a player to follow this grass season. View that Grass Court Report here.

Here’s what I said about the 26-year-old Russian last month:

As with Bencic, Samsonova has been a big-odds pick for us at the Majors before. The world no.19 has posted some solid results this season, including a semi final in Adelaide (hard courts), quarter final at the big Indian Wells event (hard), a final on clay in Strasbourg, and most recently - a semi final on grass in Berlin last month. That run to the last four in Germany saw her string together a noteworthy and very respectable piece of form: beating Naomi Osaka, Pegula, and Amanda Anisimova, back to back.

With two of her five WTA titles to date coming on grass, and an overall 67% match win rate on the turf. The flat-hitting Samsonova possesses both the power and game to threaten opponents here at Wimbledon, and the low-key profile to make her a big-odds dark horse.

Let’s take the available odds of 66/1 - 40/1 for Liudmila (70/1 Unibet…), before she plays in the 2nd round this afternoon...

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Ones to Watch picks - Wimbledon:

See above for full details

Women’s Outright Winner

Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)

• Belinda Bencic @ 100/1 Unibet, BetMGM, BetUK, LiveScoreBet, VirginBet (all the same sportsbook), 80/1 Bet365, William Hill, Betfred, Betway, 66/1 Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 

• Liudmila Samsonova @ 70/1 Unibet, BetMGM, BetUK, LiveScoreBet, VirginBet (all the same sportsbook), 66/1 Boylesports, 55/1 Paddy Power, 50/1 Betfred, Skybet, 40/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor, Betway, William Hill

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I’ll be back with more Wimbledon bets and advice over the weekend if any matches catch the eye, and next week with more updates on the Outright Winner markets.

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at:

oliver@spapublishinggroup.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch