Tennis Betting Advice - June 2025
Wimbledon: Outsider picks at 66/1 and 100/1...
Sunday 29th June 2025
Good morning. It’s that time of year again…
Wimbledon starts tomorrow. Insert all the strawberries & cream puns you like - but I won’t waste precious time with that. We have business to attend to…
In case you’re new here, or missed the build-up. Head over to the Archives on your members-only Ones to Watch website to catch-up on our prep-work (here, and here):
When it comes to the tournament Outright Winner markets for Wimbledon, the Ones to Watch mantra remains the same as ever. This aggressive, underdog approach has served us well for many years:
We back appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices…
That tactic means we don’t win often - but when we do, we win big. It only takes one…
When it comes to the Grand Slams, and Wimbledon in particular, there’s plenty of recent ‘surprise package’ evidence to back up our taking-on-the-favourites stance. Especially in the women’s game:
Wimbledon has had 8 different women’s champions in a row
The last 3 Wimbledon women’s winners all went off at odds of 100/1+. And none of those 3 had ever won a grass-court title before
The men’s Majors are not as wide-open, but even when the now-broken Big Four spell was at full power, we were still seeing outsiders make it through to the Wimbledon final. With tall, big servers showing they can do damage on grass:
With all that in mind, let’s get started, and get our first Ones to Watch names in the book for Wimbledon 2025…
The draws were made on Friday. I’ve spent the last couple of days going over the potential routes to the final… 128 women start off in the field on day one, along with 128 men. Let’s hunt out a few outside chances…
Outright Winner - WOMEN
I’m sticking with our youngsters here. As well as all the big-odds stats above, five of the last nine women’s Grand Slams have produced a maiden finalist. Promising youngsters with exciting games - and a taste for big-match encounters - include these regulars from our Ones to Watch lists in recent seasons…
DIANA SHNAIDER is a likeable left-hander with an array of shots, and plenty of power to boot. The bandana-wearing 21-year-old is already within touching distance of the world’s Top 10, currently ranked no.12.
Since I first listed Shnaider in my pre-season 2024 report - when she was still a teenager and ranked no.93 - Diana has won four titles on the WTA Tour, including one on grass. The next goal is to make a big run at a ‘Slam…
We’ll take the big odds here, with some 100/1 and 80/1 Outright on the table - along with 66/1 to Reach the Final, which would beat the standard 1/2 odds place terms. See below for bookies.
LINDA NOSKOVA is another frequently mentioned Ones to Watch youngster we want to be on from day one at Wimbledon. At 50/1 in general, with some 66/1 about, too…
Czech ladies have won Wimbledon two years in a row, with Marketa Vondrousova going off at 150/1 in 2023, and Barbora Krejcikova was a 225/1 rank outsider at the start of last summer’s event. As namechecked in this year’s pre-season report, Noskova is my pick of the current crop of new names coming through on the superb Czech conveyor belt.
Over the course of this month’s grass-court campaign, 20-year-old world no.30 Linda Noskova has reached a quarter final in Nottingham, and then semi final at Bad Homburg. I like the arc of that form-line.
Shnaider and Noskova are in the top half of the women’s draw. In the bottom half, another of our regularly-featured Ones to Watch youngsters catches the eye at odds of 100/1+, and that’s Denmark’s CLARA TAUSON…
I can’t write too much about Clara’s grass-court form (although she’s won three out of five matches on the turf this June). But then again, the same could easily have been said about any of the last three women’s winners at SW19 - Elena Rybakina, Marketa Vondrousova, and Barbora Krejcikova - all without a previous WTA grass singles trophy to their name until striking it big at Wimbledon…
At just 22, Tauson also has age on her side - and as we’ve seen so many times in recent years alone, the great leap forward can come at any time (and on any surface). Clara is no.23 in rankings, and that gives her a seeding in the Wimbledon draw.
Considering the standout trend for 100/1 shots doing big things at the women’s Grand Slams right now, let’s take Tauson at triple-figure odds. We can get 100/1+ in general in the standard Outright Winner market, as well as 100/1 to Reach the Final with a few firms.
Outright Winner - MEN
While some of the biggest names at the top of the women’s betting have yet to win Wimbledon (or reach the final) - with Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff all falling into that category, and all down as favourites for the 2025 title. The men’s market does deserve more respect/ caution in terms of taking on the big boys…
Carlos Alcaraz is just 6/5 (2.2), but the recent French Open winner is also the defending two-time Wimbledon champion, so he’s hard to argue with on those credentials. The same goes for multiple Major-winning world no.1 Jannik Sinner, at just 2/1 (3.0) at best.
Then of course we have seven-time Wimbledon champ Novak Djokovic; he’s been to the final six times in a row here (!), and that record will no doubt have many happy to back the 38-year-old at odds of 13/2 (7.5) for the trophy.
But you don’t need me to tell you that one of the favourites might win the trophy…
Our underdog mission takes us to all kinds of places. The aforementioned ‘big servers’ angle is definitely one to take note of here on the grass. In that department, the likes of Taylor Fritz, Alexander Bublik, Jakub Mensik, Matteo Berrettini, Hubert Hurkacz, Reilly Opelka, and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (to name but seven) all tick the big-servers box for hitting a lot of aces from a great height.
We can’t back every six-footer and bigger though. This is where the draw comes in...
Daniil Medvedev at 50/1 is worth a mention, too. The 6’6” Russian has reached the semi finals at SW19 in each of the last two years, and warmed up on the grass this month by getting to the final at ATP Halle. He’s also one of only two men to have ever beaten Alcaraz at this venue (2021). The fact remains though that the 29-year-old former world no.1 (currently no.9) has yet to actually win a trophy on tour since spring 2023.
Medvedev is in the same half of the draw as Alcaraz; the Spanish star beat Daniil here last summer, and has won their last four meetings on all surfaces. What’s more, Medvedev could face the in-form Fritz in the round of 16, and the American holds a 3-1 career head-to-head there. While we’re at it, Fritz is 0-2 against Alcaraz.
I’d rather back players without so much scar tissue against the leading lights. Once again, I’m drawn to the young guns. These two have been earmarked high up on our men’s Ones to Watch lists for a couple of seasons now (see the 2024 report here)...
One from each side of the Wimbledon 2025 draw - and both available at 100/1…
BEN SHELTON got a particular mention in my most recent report: Grass Court Preview 2025. As I said in that write-up, 22-year-old Shelton has only made two appearances in the Wimbledon main draw, and improved his result each time.
Ben also has a big, booming, loopy left-hand serve that can cause problems on the grass. And the positive-minded young American is riding high right now, having just broken into the world’s Top 10 for the first time.
HOLGER RUNE is another high-energy young gun who has stacks of big-time potential. The 22-year-old has already cracked the Top 10 (currently no.8). And has made a habit of raising his game when he takes on the big names on the most prestigious stages. An example being when the Dane beat Djokovic in the Paris Masters final in 2023, landing us a 33/1 tournament winner.
So far in his still-developing career, Holger has won seven out of 10 matches at Wimbledon, including a quarter final in 2023. That’s a 70% stat to take note of. I do have some concerns about his fitness durability over five-set matches at Grand Slam level. But make no mistake: this kid can play, and he wants to win a Major title. He has the talent, the fight - and the self-belief.
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Ones to Watch picks - Wimbledon:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)*
*Note: Backing Win Only and to Reach the Final as two separate bets can sometimes beat the Each Way prices…
Women’s:
Diana Shnaider - best price combo @ 100/1 Win Only Skybet, 90/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 80/1 Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor, Boylesports. AND: Reach the Final @ 66/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Betway, 50/1 William Hill
Linda Noskova @ 66/1 Each Way Skybet, BetVictor, 60/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 50/1 Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway, Unibet, 888 Sport
Clara Tauson - best price combo @ 150/1 Win Only Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports, 125/1 Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 100/1 William Hill, Betfred, BetVictor, Betway. AND: Reach the Final @ 100/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Betway
Men’s:
Ben Shelton - best price combo @ 100/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports. AND: Reach the Final @ 80/1 Bet365, 66/1 BetVictor, Betway
Holger Rune @ 150/1 Each Way Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook. Next best price combo: 100/1 BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, AND: Reach the Final @ 66/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Betway, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
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There will be more Outright advice and updates to come via email throughout the Wimbledon fortnight…
Plus: I’ll also be in touch from the start of the week with match picks by text message. Find out more about getting those text message tips to your phone here.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone