Tennis Betting Advice - July 2025
Wimbledon: 80/1 Bencic in the Semi Finals...
Thursday 10th July 2025
80/1 shots aren’t supposed to get to the Semi Finals…
Our women’s Outright Winner pick Belinda Bencic is doing us proud at Wimbledon…
The 28-year-old Swiss is through to the Semi Finals at the All England Club, for the first time in her career…
In fact, all four women’s contenders today are looking to reach a maiden SW19 final. With Aryna Sabalenka, Amanda Anisimova, and Iga Swiatek, all vying for a first taste of glory at the most famous tennis tournament of them all.
Of the four ladies left in the draw, we’re on the biggest price of the lot - and by some distance. Marking out classic Ones to Watch territory for us, once again:
World no.1 Sabalenka went off on day one as the 11/4 (3.75) favourite
World no.4 Swiatek was 9/1
World no.12 Anisimova started the tournament at 33/1 at best
World no.35 Bencic was a 150/1 rank outsider
Coming into Wimbledon with just one grass court match under her belt this season (which she lost, 6-1, 6-2 to Ekaterina Alexandrova). Bencic was on our radar this year, but the 28-year-old mum was not a bet selection for me until she proved her fitness and showed some form: winning her very first set 6-0 in the 1st round was as good a marker as you could hope for…
With four of the top five women’s seeds already knocked out before Belinda was even due to play her 2nd round match, with the draw opening up, you and I got on the likeable Swiss at odds of 80/1 or 66/1 with the mainstream firms, Each Way.
The 100/1 with Unibet & co was as flaky as had been anticipated, and evaporated quicker than you could say ‘pass the Pimm’s.’ Although if you managed to get on for more than 10 pence (I’m not joking), I’d like to know about it.
After progressing to the 3rd round, there was still plenty of 50/1 around for Bencic.
In the 4th round (last 16), our ‘28 Club’ pick exacted revenge on Alexandrova, and in straight sets to boot.
Belinda was also the matchday underdog when she beat 18-year-old world no.7 Mirra Andreeva in the quarter finals yesterday - and she got the job done in two sets there, too.
If Bencic can pull off the hat-trick of odds-against match wins this afternoon, and beat heavy favourite Swiatek, then we’ll have our latest Big One through to a Grand Slam final, at fancy prices…
The semi final is the ‘money match’ for our Outright Winner, Each Way picks. Win today to reach the final, and a half-the-odds place payout will be guaranteed. It’s a big ‘if’ of course. But we deal in underdogs here at Ones to Watch…
The last time Bencic and Swiatek met was right here on the grass at SW19 in 2023. The Swiss player had a couple of match points that day, before the top-ranked player reeled her back in. Iga squeezed through 6-7, 7-6, 6-3.
Belinda is older and wiser now. I’m not in a position to tell you how becoming a mother has changed her mindset. But I have been impressed with how Bencic has shaken off the nerves when they’ve come along so far this week…
For example, when serving during yesterday’s quarter final, Belinda had to pause her service motion when distracted by a cork popping in the stands. Her reaction? “Cheers” muttered, on with the play… and then a wave to that area of the crowd, after winning the point.
If she can keep a level of calm during the big moments in today’s match - the opportunity to get to a Grand Slam final being the dream goal ever since a four-year-old Bencic was first coached by Martina Hingis’ mother. Then Belinda certainly has a chance today.
Going back to the odds. We’re on at 80/1 - 66/1 for the trophy. With Each Way terms of 1/2 odds for getting to the final. Bencic is now just 16/1 - 10/1 for the title. And 11/4 (3.75) to beat Swiatek this afternoon…
Compared to today’s match price, our Each Way position effectively means that if you’re on Bencic at 80/1, then you have a 40/1 payout riding on her winning the semi today.
That’s 40/1 for an 11/4 shot. If you’re on at 66/1 EW you have 33/1, and so on.
As ever, it’s an exciting position to be in. This is what we live for here at Ones to Watch.
And as ever, we’re the outsiders…
But stranger things have certainly happened than the world no.35 beating the world no.4…
And after all, this is a battle between two former Wimbledon Girls’ champions (Swiatek was junior champ here in 2018, Bencic in 2013). One may yet go on to fulfil the dream this weekend. We’re on the player at the very biggest prices, and that’s Belinda Bencic.
Such is the scale of Swiatek’s favouritism in the betting today - the 24-year-old Pole is 3/10 (1.3) for the match - the downside is we have little if any wiggle-room to shuffle into a decent win-win situation. You’d have to give up a lot of your original bet & potential returns to back Iga at short odds.
In other words, as I see it: the 80/1 Each Way bet is all riding on this afternoon’s big match…
As the old sporting cliché goes, if you’d told me before the tournament that we’d have an 80/1 shot in the Semi Finals - then I’d have bitten your hand off…
Bencic v Swiatek is the second match on Centre Court today, which will probably be around 3.30pm, live on the BBC.
Enjoy the tennis…
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone