Tennis Betting Advice - June 2020

US Open announcement - and Francesca at 3/1...

Wednesday 17th June 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • The US Open is going ahead…
  • GST Tours Matchplay 120…
  • Di Lorenzo v Loeb, 3pm…

The US Open is going ahead…

We woke up to some big tennis news this morning. And while it’s a bit surreal, it’s good news in that one of the year’s remaining Grand Slams looks to have been salvaged…

While Wimbledon has long since been called off for this summer, and the French Open has a new date in September but is still yet to be fully confirmed. The US Open organisers and the powers that be in New York look to be taking the ‘show must go on’ approach.

Despite New York being one of the worst-effected places in the world during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. The plan – as was widely reported earlier this week, and has now been officially backed up – it to hold the US Open in its original time slot, starting 31st August.

There will be no fans, which will create a very strange atmosphere for a Grand Slam, to say the least.

Outsider opportunities…

On the betting front, this behind-closed-doors US Open should present us with an intriguing set of matches and markets to look at…

Will all the top players show up? What will the playing standard be like? Will no crowds and lack of atmosphere lend itself to more shocks and surprises?

You & I will be on the case. From the start of the year, which feels like a long, long time ago now, we have fantastic Grand Slam memories with 50/1 Ones to Watch pick Sofia Kenin lifting the women’s trophy at the Australian Open in January. And our 22/1 Each Way shot Dominic Thiem finishing runner-up in the men’s.

Around that time, we also got an early 150/1 & 100/1 Each Way shot in the book for the men’s US Open. Our boy Andrey Rublev is now 66/1 at best (Betway), although not all the bookies have got their Outright Winner market up right now.

We’ll be looking to get a good couple more outsiders on our side as the US Open approaches at the end of the summer.

More immediately, we’ll be focusing on the new ‘Battle of the Brits’ event at the National Tennis Centre in Roehampton next week. Andy Murray is the star attraction. Play starts Tuesday.

And for today, we’re returning to the States where it’s week four of the GST Tours Matchplay 120 series…

Di Lorenzo v Loeb…

This week the matches in Orlando, Florida have switched from hard courts to clay.

We’ve been following the three-set, 2-1 score trend in the women’s series, and if ever a playing surface lends itself to long & winding matches, then it’s clay. Serves and power shots can get neutralised, and a slower playing surface means higher bounces, more time to get to shots – and longer rallies.

  • Eye-catching stat: since 9th June, a notable 6 out of 8 women’s GST matches have gone the distance to three sets, with all 6 settled 2-1 in favour of the pre-match favourite

I make no apologies whatsoever for sticking to my guns with that angle today…

Francesca Di Lorenzo is an 8/13 (1.62) and 8/15 (1.53) favourite to beat Jamie Loeb. I agree with Di Lorenzo as the market leader here. The younger of the two Americans, Francesca is also nearly 150 places higher than her opponent in the world rankings.

The career head-to-head is 3-0 to Di Lorenzo. And on the recent form in this GST series, Di Lorenzo has won six out of seven, while Loeb has lost six out of eight.

Three of Loeb’s last four matches have turned into three-set scraps. I can see Di Lorenzo coming out on top with a 2-1 victory in this one.

Again, the thinking is simple: taking 3/1+ for the 2-1 Set Betting score is a whole lot more appealing to me than the odds-on Match Winner price, especially given the way the way these matches have been going, and the move to clay today.

On that note, I should also mention that Di Lorenzo has the superior career record on clay.

GST Tours Matchplay 120 – Women:

3pm UK time

  • Set Betting – Francesca Di Lorenzo to win 2-1 v Jamie Loeb is 15/4 (4.75) with Sportingbet, Bwin, 18/5 (4.60) Ladbrokes, Coral, 10/3 (4.33) Bet365, 888 Sport, Unibet, 3/1 (4.00) Betfred, Skybet, William Hill

Latest odds here

I’ll be back ahead of the weekend with more on the upcoming events and matches…

Enjoy the tennis,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch