Tennis Betting Advice - June 2021

French Open: Day 6 – this 100/1 shot will give her all…

Friday 4th June 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Day 6…
  • Word of the Day: Apophenia…
  • Serena Williams v Danielle Collins…

Good morning and welcome to Day 6 of your French Open 2021 daily service. I’m in your inbox every morning of the tournament. If you want to get in mine, email me at:  

Birthday bagels…

We’ve been talking about ‘bagels’ this week. The 6-0 score is the ultimate display of scoreboard domination in tennis. And the two reigning French Open champions both dished out a couple on their birthdays this week…

Iga Swiatek (31st May) – turned 20 on Monday. Swiatek celebrated her birthday on court, winning her 1st round match 6-0, 7-5. The Polish sensation followed that up yesterday, with a thumping 6-1, 6-1 victory in the 2nd round.

Rafael Nadal (3rd June) – the 13-time Roland Garros champion turned 35 years old yesterday. He’s still playing as frighteningly well as ever. Rafa roared out the blocks last night, simply too good for Richard Gasquet, 6-0, 7-5, 6-2.

Word of the Day: Apophenia…

Those birthdays got me thinking of other French Opens where I’ve seen cakes & candles dished out…

  • Jelena Ostapenko (birthday 8th June) – turned 20 during the week of her 100/1 French Open triumph in 2017
  • Bjorn Borg (6th June) – the Swedish legend won the French Open 6 times. His birthday fell during the tournament every year
  • Justine Henin (1st June) – won the French Open 4 times. Like Borg, Henin’s birthday fell during the Roland Garros fortnight

I learnt a new word today…

Apophenia:The human tendency to seek patterns in random information

So, while I’m not going to attribute to much of my research time to birthdays (!). If we were to look for ‘signs’ on the birth certificates, then this is the best I can give you regarding the players currently in our Outright Winner book for the French Open 2021. Although this one doesn’t actually take place during the tournament…

  • Marta Kostyuk turns 19 on 28th June – that’s the same birthday as Marketa Vondrousova, who was 19 when reaching the French Open final for us as a 40/1 outsider in 2019

The World No.1 is out…

Another couple of fancied names were knocked out yesterday. Further opening up the draw, where we’re looking for one of our outsider picks to punch through to the latter stages…

Women’s world no.1 Ash Barty succumbed to injury; the 2019 champion, and the pre-tournament second-favourite for this year, is out of the competition. Magda Linette took advantage of the Australian’s struggles, and moves on to the next round.

In the men’s, we saw yet another big-odds upset. With 37-year-old, world no.132 Philipp Kohlschreiber beating Australian Open semi-finalist Aslan Karatsev, at Match Winner odds of 7/1.

Our Outright book…

It was a good day for the three women we had in action on Thursday. They were all in the early, 10am slot. And Marta Kostyuk, Jessica Pegula, and Karolina Muchova all got the job done in relatively straightforward fashion, each winning in straight sets, 2-0. If only it was always that simple.

Here are the seven players we have running for us in the Outright Winner markets. All through to the 3rd round, to play either today or tomorrow:


  • Paula Badosa 25/1 – now 11/1 & 10/1
  • Karolina Muchova 40/1 – now 25/1 in general, 33/1 Betfred
  • Marta Kostyuk 160/1 – 80/1 – now 66/1 & 50/1
  • Jessica Pegula 125/1 – 100/1 – now 80/1


  • Casper Ruud 40/1 – 33/1 – those odds still available today
  • Daniil Medvedev 40/1 – now 33/1 & 28/1
  • Reilly Opelka 1,000/1 – now 500/1

As discussed in yesterday’s analysis, Medvedev & Opelka face each other, for a place in the Last 16.

This 100/1 shot will give her all…

Across the men’s and women’s draws, there’s only one area where we haven’t got a player to root for. That’s the Women’s 3rd Quarter. With odds of 100/1+ still available, I can’t overlook the potential story unfolding with Danielle Collins

The 27-year-old American plays with the same loud, fist-pumping intensity as her compatriot, Sofia Kenin. While Sonya has made two Grand Slam finals already, Collins is still aiming for her first. Danielle has come close before though, showing what she’s capable of with big-odds runs to the Australian Open semi finals (2019) – and the quarter finals here at the French Open last year.

Since then, Collins has had surgery for endometriosis. She’s spoken openly and honestly about the pain and what’s she had to go though. So far, since recovering from that surgery, the hard yards put in getting back to full fitness look to be paying off. The world no.50 hit her stride in the last round, with a 6-0, 6-2 score-line that is typical of the kind of result Danielle reels off when on song.

Collins always had the fight and drive to be a contender. If she now has the ability to compete to her full capabilities, pain-free – and she says she has – then she can prove a real dark horse in this competition…

Taking on Serena Williams is a big test today, of course. But odds of just 11/8 (2.38) for the match win show that the bookmakers don’t think it would be that much of an upset…

I like the big prices in the Outright Winner market. It goes without saying that if Collins takes out Serena today, then these 100/1+ odds will be slashed.

Day 6 matches…

We’re approaching the end of week one, and that means the tournament is starting to heat up.

Heavy rain is forecast today, so that might slow things down a bit. But the tension and drama will be there, with players fighting to book their spot in week two and keep the Grand Slam dream alive…

Court Philippe-Chatrier has a roof now, so this Order of Play for the main stadium should at least stay on schedule. With these matches likely to headline the coverage on ITV4 and Eurosport:

Victoria Azarenka v Madison Keys
Alexander Zverev v Laslo Djere
Serena Williams v Danielle Collins
Stefanos Tsitsipas v John Isner

Tsitsipas v Isner is the night match, from 8pm. That could be good, especially if Isner can keep serving the way he has been. The American would rather be playing under the sun though:

“Most times here at Roland-Garros, these are incredible serving conditions for me. I don't think people realise how good of a surface clay can be for a guy like myself, especially if the weather for myself is cooperating. If it's 75, 80 degrees and sunny, the ball is bouncing really high and the court is playing pretty fast. It's very, very good conditions for me.”

The same could be said for Opelka and Medvedev, too. Both also very tall, with massive serves. For that clash, and also for Tsitsipas v Isner, the bookies make it short odds-on for a Tibreak (7-6 set) in the match – at around 2/5 (1.4) and 4/11 (1.36) each.

For bigger prices…

14/1 for a 3-Set combo…

Serena Williams v Danielle Collins is the other match I’m excited about, for reasons explained above. It could be close though – a real fierce battle.

I’m putting that one in a Trixie (three doubles & a treble), alongside two other matches that I have earmarked for 3-Set potential today:

Some bookies call this bet Over 2.5 Sets, other Total Sets = 3

  • Serena Williams v Danielle Collins – their one previous meeting went to a decider
  • Sorana Cirstea v Daria Kasatkina – both are in form, and that could spell a three-set nail-biter. Cirstea has won a maiden WTA title during this clay season. Seven of Kasatkina’s last 15 matches have gone Over 2.5 Sets, and a flurry of breaks of serve could see this one go the same way
  • Polona Hercog v Marketa Vondrousova – only previous meeting paid out on 3 Sets. Hercog has a reputation for long matches and comebacks, with a couple of epic three-setters on the clay already this season, v Maria Sakkari, and Bernarda Pera, both of which clocked-in at over 2 hours and 50 mins

Each leg of that 3-Set combo is available at around 6/4 (2.5). Making any double profitable at 5/1, and the treble worth just over 14/1.

None of those are the first match on court, with Cirstea v Kasatkina due to kick things off for us from around 12 noon onwards. So, there’s a good bit of time to get onboard this morning…

Ones to Watch

Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way:

  • Danielle Collins is 125/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 100/1 Boylesports, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Total Sets:

  • TRIXIE. Three women’s matches as named above: Total Sets = 3 (or Over 2.5 Sets). Best prices with Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral

I’ll be back on Saturday morning with your Day 7 email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch