Tennis Betting Advice - June 2021

Wimbledon – Day 2: Happy Birthday at 100/1…

Tuesday 29th June 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • Wimbledon – Day 2…
  • Play starts 11am…
  • Outright Winner picks…

Good morning and welcome to Day 2 of your Wimbledon 2021 service. Once the rain stopped yesterday, there was a decent afternoon & evening of play. The two retractable roofs came in very useful. A boisterous crowd on Centre Court, and Andy Murray getting their nerves jangling? Almost felt just like old times…

Prices trimmed – without hitting a ball…

In terms of our Day 1 betting activity, we’ll have to wait for this morning to get a first glimpse of our initial women’s Outright Winner picks from the bottom half of the draw. Ons Jabeur (40/1) and Alison Riske (top price 200/1) both had their matches shifted to the Tuesday schedule, due to Monday’s rain delays.

The 1st round departure of two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova from this side of the draw, however, means the task faced by Jabeur and Riske has become mathematically somewhat more likely in the eyes of the bookmakers…

With Jabeur down from 40/1 to 33/1 in general without actually hitting a ball. And the standout 200/1 on Riske has now gone, although there’s plenty of 150/1 (Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor) & 100s still available (general).

Roberto slips into the 2nd Round…

In the men’s, our 100/1+ outsider in the top half of the draw, Roberto Bautista-Agut, won his 1st round match by three sets to one. He had the trainer on court in the fourth-set tiebreak, and also took a tumble on the turf right before match point. It might have just been cramp or a slight niggle, with this the Spaniard’s first three-set+ grass-court match of the summer.

And in Bautista-Agut’s quarter of the draw, French Open runner-up, world no.4 & Wimbledon 3rd seed Stefanos Tsitsipas was knocked out in straight sets by 9/2 (5.5) match underdog Frances Tiafoe. That upset has resulted in Bautista-Agut being installed as the 11/2 (6.5) joint-favourite to win the 2nd Quarter – making the 10/1 (11.0) we got yesterday a decent early wager to have in the bag.

In the Outright market, the Spaniard is now 80/1, 66/1 & 50/1 with the major firms, with 100/1 still on offer with a few other names online (MansionBet, 10Bet).

  • From yesterday’s Day 1 email, we’re also on Jabeur to win the 4th Quarter at 8/1+, and Riske for the 3rd Quarter at 25/1 or 22/1
  • Our Day 1 Match Winner treble on Bautista-Agut, Jabeur & Riske to all win their 1st round matches runs over to today

Day 2 – Outright Winner picks…

As ever, if you choose to follow me with my Ones to Watch selections. We’ll be looking to hunt out the betting value. The exciting young players, the lively outsiders: the big-odds, Each Way chances.

With over a dozen matches carried over or to be completed from yesterday, the Day 2 schedule is a busy one, with some 80 or so 1st round matches across the men’s & women’s singles. The forecast is hardly bright sunshine, but the outlook isn’t looking too bad between now and the weekend.

The players in the bottom half of the men’s draw start today. In terms of the favourites, that’s Daniil Medvedev (8/1 for the title) and Roger Federer (12/1 or shorter). Those two both reside in the 4th Quarter.

Followed in the Outright betting by Matteo Berrettini (12/1) and Alexander Zverev (20/1 at best), with those two sitting in Quarter 3 of the drawsheet. Wimbledon has so far been Zverev’s least successful Grand Slam, with a 4th round his best result at SW19. At each of the other three Majors, the German has got to the semi finals or better. Berrettini won Queen’s on grass in the build-up to Wimbledon. This is the shortest price the Italian has ever been going into a Grand Slam.

Ninth time lucky for 66/1 Felix…

In that 3rd Quarter, outsiders with potential include recent ATP Halle champion on grass, the 23-year-old Ugo Humbert (100/1), who is up to a new career high of no.25 in the world.

Humbert faces a potential blockbuster opener, against the ever-dangerous Nick Kyrgios (80/1), who is making his return to the world tour, with this Nick’s first tournament appearance outside of Australia since before the pandemic, Feb 2020. Kyrgios will be sure to put on a show for the crowd, one way or another. That one almost looks too close to call.

The other outsider price that catches my eye in this section of the men’s draw is Felix Auger-Aliassime. The Canadian is a long-standing Ones to Watch name. We’ve been tracking him for some time. So far, Felix is still searching for a first ATP title – with yet another two runner-up trophies going in the cabinet so far in 2021. He’s none from eight in finals. But Felix is still only 20 years old – and already a Top 20 player. He’s got all the talent to go far. And these days, he’s got a famous tennis name on his coaching team, ‘Uncle’ Toni Nadal.

  • Fun fact: Auger-Aliassime has the same birthday as Roger Federer (8th August)

At odds of 66/1, Auger-Aliassime can make strides here, as he goes in search of a first Grand Slam quarter final. His run-up to Wimbledon has certainly been good, with a semi final (Halle) and final (Stuttgart) on grass in June. He’s 7/1 to win the 3rd Quarter and reach the semis here.

100/1+ teenager…

 In the women’s, the top side of the drawsheet are in action today.

We’re already on Karolina Muchova – backed at 50/1 Each Way back in February. As I said yesterday, if you’re not on Muchova yet, odds of 33/1 across the board are still very much worth taking for the talented Czech player.

Another player I want to snap up the best price on is Ukrainian teenager, Marta Kostyuk. She celebrated her 19th birthday yesterday…

Marta featured as a teenage name on my pre-season Ones to Watch in 2021 list. And she did us proud as a 100/1+ pick at the French Open earlier this summer, giving the defending champion Iga Swiatek a great match in the 4th round (Swiatek then went out in the next round).

As Ones to Watch member Steve shrewdly pointed out after that match:

“I’ve just watched Kostyuk v Swiatek and it’s the first time after I’ve lost that I’ve thought that I was on the right person. There was no way that was odds on v 100/1!”

We also backed Kostyuk at 150/1 in Miami this season. And as I said back in April, Kostyuk is the kind of big-hitting teenager that could fire into dangerous form at any time. We should back her at odds of 150/1, 125/1 and 100/1 while we still can.

Marta is also 25/1 and 22/1 to win the 1st Quarter, and that’s a price that could serve us well, especially if world no.1 Ash Barty isn’t able to perform at her top level in this section.

Ones to Watch – Wimbledon

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Men’s Outright Winner – Each Way:

  • Felix Auger-Aliassime @ 66/1 William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, Betfred, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral

Men’s 3rd Quarter Winner:

  • Felix Auger-Aliassime @ 7/1 (8.0) William Hill, Unibet, MansionBet, 10Bet, 13/2 (7.5) Ladbrokes, Coral, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Betway, Boylesports

Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way:

  • Marta Kostyuk @ 150/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, 125/1 Bet365, 100/1 Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, Betway, 10Bet, MansionBet

Women’s 1st Quarter Winner:

  • Marta Kostyuk @ 25/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, 22/1 Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, Betway, 10Bet, Unibet, MansionBet

Play starts from 11am.

Lookout for your Wimbledon Day 3 email on Wednesday at 8.30am.

You can email me during the tournament at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch