Tennis Betting Advice - June 2022

French Open Day 12: This is what it’s all about…

Thursday 2nd June 2022

Welcome to Day 12 of your French Open 2022 daily service

Good morning. I’m starting the day with some numbers…

So far this season, I’ve put up 19 players at odds of 100/1+ in the tournament Outright Winner markets:

Four of those 19 selections fell at the first hurdle, losing in the 1st round.

Three crashed out in the 2nd round, and five went down in round three.

Another five got as far the Last 16, which is the round before the quarter finals.

One of them reached the semi finals, and then went all the way to the final – and won the trophy. If you were with me in March, then you don’t need me to tell you that that player was Taylor Fritz at Indian Wells.

And now here we are, in the semi finals of the French Open. Martina Trevisan is our last player left standing. A 100/1+ pick last week. The 28-year-old Italian is through to the first Major semi final of her career.

Today is a big day for Martina, and a big day for us…

This is what it’s all about…

The mantra is it only takes one. If we take our Ones to Watch French Open 2022 selections in isolation, then it all comes down to Martina Trevisan today. With the opportunity to reach the final at giant odds. In doing so, bag a huge Each Way place payout – and keep alive the chance of a 100/1 winner.

In the bigger picture, I’m very happy to have got a player this far at odds of 150/1, 125/1 or 100/1. In the long run, picks like this are what keep us coming back for more, tournament after tournament.

If anyone other than you & I is on Martina at triple-figure odds, than I haven’t heard or seen them mentioning it. We’ve got a true outsider on our side.

The world no.59 has come through the draw for the loss of just one set (and she had set point to win that, too). Overall, Trevisan is on a 10-match winning streak on clay, having won the WTA Rabat title, at odds of 14/1, the week before Paris.

While I say I’m happy with Martina reaching the semis, that doesn’t mean I’m settling for the story to end there. Far from it. Days like today are what Ones to Watch is all about…

I’ve been in this game plenty long enough to experience both sides of the story: the death or glory moments; the agony of the near miss, the sheer bliss of the big win…

I can’t tell you which side of the coin we’ll land on today. But I know which prices I’d rather have in the pocket…

We’ve got 50/1 to win the match…

The bookies have Coco Gauff as the match favourite for today’s semi final, at 1/3 (1.33) in general.

Trevisan is 12/5 (3.4) to cause an upset. But if you’re on at 100/1+ Each Way in the Outright Winner market, then our player beating Gauff today is worth 50/1. Now we’re talking.

When I flagged up Trevisan on Day 6, the top quoted odds and reach-the-final place terms were as follows:

  • The 150/1 at Unibet was with Each Way terms of 1/3 odds 1-2 places. The place part pays 50/1 if Trevisan reaches the final
  • Other bookies listed that day had the standard Each Way terms of 1/2 odds for 1-2 places. With Sporting Index Fixed Odds at 125/1, and half a dozen firms at 100/1 (Bet365, Betfred, William Hill, 888 Sport, BetVictor, Boylesports). At 100/1 Each Way, the place payout for reaching the final is 50/1

The shortened version being: if you’re on Trevisan at 100/1 Each Way, then you have 50/1 on her to beat Coco Gauff today. That’s 50/1 (51.0) for a 12/5 (3.4) shot.

It’s a good position to be in. An exciting one. And one that says all you need to know about how we do things here at Ones to Watch. On Day 1 last week, I set the stall out the same as I do before any big tournament: we back appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices.

We’ve got a big underdog on our side today. I can’t wait for the players to get on court this afternoon. I might be pacing the living room, sweating, or even cursing. But I’ll also be enjoying it. As a sadly-departed friend once said to me, a man who taught me more than a thing or two about betting: There’s always tomorrow.

Indeed, the ATP and WTA Tours continue right on next week, with four tournaments marking the start of the grass-court season. And after that, we’ll be spending our summer sniffing out the big-price outsiders at Wimbledon, and then the US Open. It’s all good.

Enjoy the match. Enjoy the tennis. But most of all, enjoy this long Bank Holiday weekend.

Aces and Double Faults…

No match bets for me today. But I’ve taken a little delve into the serving stats for Trevisan and Gauff. And the Double Fault factor could prove significant in the outcome of this high-stakes match…

Here are the tournament stats so far:

Aces 2 = 0.4 average per match
Double Faults 15 = 3.0 average per match

Aces 14 = 2.8 average per match
Double Faults 31 = 6.2 average per match

Coco’s wobbly second serve has long been an issue. We’ve discussed it before. And also, to be fair to the teenager, noted that she’s cleaned up that area of her game a lot, too. The problem has most definitely not been erased though.

In their only previous meeting, which came here at the French Open in 2020, Trevisan won the match by two sets to one. Gauff won the Ace count, 3-0. But also racked up a horrible number of Double Faults, taking the tally that day by a startling score of 19-2…

The American has improved since then, but Gauff definitely got a bit tight when closing out the win v Sloane Stephens in the quarter final the other day, including a couple of Double Faults when serving for the match. The same could be said about nerves with Trevisan. She hit seven Double Faults in her quarter final win.

Today’s match will be a first Grand Slam semi final experience for both women. The question to be answered this afternoon then, who will handle the situation better?

Bet365 are leading the way with Aces and Double Faults markets in this tournament. They have Gauff short odds-on for the Most Double Faults v Trevisan today, at 2/7 (1.29). With the Italian at 7/2 (4.5).

In the Total Double Faults market, Bet365 have Over 9.5 in the match at 4/5 (1.8). A match like this does have the potential to produce a high total. I had a look at Sporting Index and SpreadEx this morning to see if there were any spread bets available, as a ‘Buy’ (bet high) at 9+ Double Faults would’ve looked like a pretty decent low-downside trade. But alas, no markets are on offer as I write.

The match is second on court this afternoon, after Iga Swiatek v Daria Kasatkina at 2pm. Expect Trevisan v Gauff to start around 4pm.

I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Day 13 email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch